I liked your analysis. However I am not sure that the analysis is a valid forward looking one.

There is one big overriding part of the equation. All the World Pundits say we passed peak-Oil in 2007.

There is severe speculation that Saudi Arabia is fudging its reserves.

There is almost immutable arithmetic which shows that the Oil Energy Cost of Investment is dropping from (probably 1000, or 500 to 1) down to about 20:1 often approaching 10:1 and in our lifetime will drop to about5:1

Saudi's main reserves of 50 years ago were a gift (500-1000:1). The Tar Sands (Probably will never do better than 5:1) and the Deep Sea wells are always increasing in Energy cost compared with Energy return.

All the other Energy Alternatives hover around 5:1 including Nuclear. Alcohol is below one. Solar around 1-2:1

The US is busy fiddling the Geopolitical books at present.

Oil will soon be a free for all and bear no relationship to anything except the ability to afford it.

This is Third World War stuff

Graham Reinders.