The Herald (Harare)
19 August 2008
ZIMBABWE'S annual rate of inflation surged in June to 11,2 million percent, according to official figures just released.
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What magic wand do you think Tsvangerai will bring to government to control and then radically reduce inflation, katz?
Tsvangerai, if installed as the head of Government brings two key things: Global goodwill for Zimbabwe and legitimacy of the Government in the eyes of the organisations and countries most able & willing to inject significant amounts of hard currency into the Government coffers. Yes that's the West, IMF, World Bank and all those demonic institutions Selector... demonic they may be, but I'm not noticing China jumping quickly in to bouy up Mugabe with the hard currency he's desperately needed all these years. Cold hard cash and debt write-offs are what the government needs to pay the wages of the civil servants and buy in all those inputs currently lacking - food aid in the first instance, training, machinery and equipment to properly re-mechanise the new farming community, the manufacturing sector and state controlled infrastructure (power, water etc.). With farms once again producing food & raw material inputs and the remaining 'missing' inputs able to be purchased & imported by the Government (using the hard currency aid money), the production sector can begin to increase it's capacity to produce goods, increasing the no. of jobs available so more people will be earning & thus able to buy what they need off the formerly empty shelves, tax revenue increases, reducing the government's need for aid and allowing greater government investment in infrastructure rehab & development, education, health - a virtuous circle that by no means will 'fix' Zimbabwe overnight but which will slowly but surely re-establish the formal economy and give the people a sense of hope & purpose as they see improvement after improvement. Also, with cold hard cash in the Reserve Bank, the need to print Dollars will fall away, removing the biggest inflationary forces of money oversupply and the resulting currency devaluation. Other ideas floated before would help, such as pegging the Zim dollar to the SA Rand - might cause the Rand to devalue somewhat in the short term, but at least the Zim Dollar will have a strong anchor while the economy recovers. With a monetary union on the cards for SADC in a few years time, pegging the Z$ to the Rand would be on the right track anyway.
No magic wand, but the start of national healing.
Selector - I don't think that I could answer your question any better than African 32 has done. He/she and the other posters on this thread have cogently identified the problem; you only have to read what they are saying.
Ever heard of consumer confidence? Build confidence, inflation falls. People have no confidence in government and economy and inflation soars. It's pretty obvious selector.
Incidentally, making old coins into legitimate tender in the "new" currency was a monumentally stupid idea. Just imagine all those people with bags of coins at home going out to buy goods. Whatever they bought they were getting free, and therefore wouldn't have cared much about the prices they were paying, pushing the inflation envelope even further along.
Gono is an idiot trying increasingly more desperate tactics which will never make an iota of difference to the economy.
If I may answer for katz..1st fire Gono who is obviously getting richer by the day while the nation gets poorer. Why do we pretent not to see whats going on? Money transfere agencies and Online shopping controled/owned by ministers and Government officials. Haulage firms owned by South African ministers transporting fuel into Zimbabwe so they cant afford to have Feruka working fully. It does not need a miracle to sort the economy out.
Katz is dead on right, and the Rome analogy is so perfect that if the situation wasn’t so sad I would be laughing out loud. Magic wand? No such thing, but the melted mess that is Zimbabwe’s economy can not realistically be tamed without massive help from the west, and they have already stated, en masse, that no such help can be availed while the one time hero, turned megalomaniacal mass murderer, Mugabe, is in power… and for good reason : Mugabe & his Zanu-PF cohorts are the very reason it is such a mess.
Universally on this thread so far, the suggestions to address Zim's runaway inflation are all require third party, external intervention. And, according to the posts so far, such intervention is being withheld for political reasons.
Ultimately, posters so far appear to agree with Mugabe who says that the economy is being stifled by external parties for political reasons.
So it's not a simple as financial mis-management. I'm glad we have that straight.
Stop putting words into our mouths to make your zero mugabe look innocent! yes the reason there is the crisis in zims right now is because outside investors are holding onto their money and the reason is because they have no faith in the regime of mugabe and his thieving lot! Would you hand over your billions in US Dollars or £ Sterling to the likes of zanupf and expect it to be looked after?? I thought so!! So before you start writing another chorus of praise to the failed mugabe I would suggest you think twice!
Couldnt have said it better myself. Well said.
Selector, I appreciate your pithy summary of the current position, however, don't be selective about the history of the financial management of Zimbabwe since 1980 and so twist the truth of the whole matter. Mugabe inherited the second most industrialised nation in Africa. He inherited a country completely self sufficient in the necessities of life for the entire population - it had to be after 15 years of comprehensive sanctions and embargoes. Despite the war, people weren't dying of starvation as is being reported now. Pre 1980 the country had no access to foreign lines of credit, of aid or financial support apart from what sanctions busting aid it received from portuguese Mozambique pre 1975 and South Africa pre 1978. After 1980, export markets reopened, goodwill foreign aid flowed in, access to foreign loans was restored and foreign assets unfrozen. Investment flowed in and it was a boom time for the country. 12 years of mismanagement, corruption and greed on the part of the Zanu PF government, not to mention damaging evidence about the antics of the 5th Brigade in Matabeleland resulted in the IMF/World Bank imposing ESAP in exchange for further loans and financial assistance to the Government, in line with growing western disatisfaction with how aid & loans to Africa were misused and abused by the ruling elites. The consequence: aid & loans came with strings attached. The local banks began to carry the vast majority of government debt from the mid 80's, so no money has available for them to loan to the population to finance business, buy homes etc. That locks up a modern economy (just look at what the credit crunch is doing in the US & Europe right now).
Following the mismanagement of the land redistribution, the rigging of elections and disrespect by the Government of the country's own laws from 2000, aid & loans dried up, the Government, instead of mending it's ways, accepting that as a supposed 'democracy' the will of the people should be respected, and seeking to re-dress it's land redistribution program in a way that ensured food & raw material input safety for the country irrespective of who owns the land, especially as there was a drought putting added pressure on the agricultural sector, Mugabe carried on regardless. He entered a war in the DRC that cost the Government precious money it did not have to spend. To make up for the shortfalls caused by fiscal overspend, corruption and patronage, the loss if forex earnings through greatly reduced agricultural production & export, the government began printing money. Any high school economics student knows that when Germany began printing money wildly in the 1920's to cover it's fiscal deficit, it entered into a hyper inflationary period just like that Zimbabwe has been enduring since the late 90's.
Mismanagement of the fiscal purse in the last 28 years has brought Zimbabwe to the point of needing external assistance to recover. As Zanu PF have had total control of Government in those 28 years, the blame for the current economic situation really lies at their door. Those who have sought regime change in Harare have simply had to wait for the policies of the government to follow through to their logical conclusion. Mugabe & Zanu-PF have paradoxically done more to ensure that they are eventually removed from power through the pressures brought to bear by comprehensive economic failure of the country than anyone else. If they had carefully maintained Zimbabwe's economic self sufficiency they could still be giving the West two fingers to this day, with majority voter support right behind them and fellow African leaders cheering them on.
It won't matter Gentlemen, Mugs and his thugs will now BLAME Tsvingarai for stalling talks and not letting them convene parliament albeit with people who were voted out in the last election. Mugabe will claim that everything is in tatters because his "excellent " leadership is being held up by Morgan and the "evil west" for insisting he relinquish power. His mind is either so addled or he cannot care a damn for his people , that he won't even quietly accept the generous offer of Ceremonial President , when in fact , he and his cohorts should be tried for heinous crimes. Of course , the moronic diatribe offered by his supporters on sites like this will continue to blame white Rhodesians, angry African states, the "Evil West" even though 28 years have passed and this man destroyed what Nyerere described as the jewel of Africa ! Kwacha , Uhuru ? No just plain idiocy that has run Africa since the white influence left. Instead of blaming the west for colonising, it would serve certain people well to blame them for "de colonising ". Ishe Kombera Afrika !
Who is the lunatic to claim there is crisis in Gt Zimbabwe? Hyperinflation of over 11 million per cent? Oh! the genius Mugabe enables his citizens to sell their farm chicken at over a trillion Dollars a piece! Everybody is in ecstasy with trillions in their pocket. Who sees any crisis?
Watch out! You may be branded pro-West and anti-Mugabe / Mbeki!!
Genius Mugabe! The hero! He can teach economic experts (afterall he was ateacher in Ghana)how to make every economy boom. Isn't it the reason why he gave 4-wheel vehicles to his crony judges so that extra proceeds from the higher agricultural production could boost Mugabe's secret bank account in Malaysia, China and elsewhere in offshore petty islands?
Why such a genius should not continue exercising executive power? Surely those wishing to see him replaced are part of a westren plot!!
So ambassaddor Dell was right after all. To imagine all the cursing he got for suggesting a paltry 1.5million percent inflation. Musharaff left yesterday..would Zimbabwe's self-proclaimed president stop toying with people's lives and allow others to salvage this nation, please.
Even for a person like me who thinks in figures,Zim.inflation data has become purely academic.
"Even for a person like me who thinks in figures,Zim.inflation data has become purely academic".
So true. When inflation equates to literally 20% per minute as it does, it is meaningless. Whilst shopping for groceries prices would increase as you even whilst you take the money out of your wallet to pay the cashiers. It's possible that even when paying by credit card, or whilst withdrawing or paying in cash at bank tellers or ATMs that the amounts of money changes in value during the time taken to perform the transaction.
The inflation rate is undoubtedly academic at present.
So now inflation is 11 MILLION PERCENT! (this is from the Herald? - it must be at least 20 MILLION)!
Some additional FACTS...... 30% to 40% of the indigenous population has left the country (including your teachers, doctors & engineers). Unemployment is at least 80%. ZANU-PF/Mugabe is literally driving the nation of Zimbabwe back into the Stone Age!
This is not a video game! Dropping a couple of zeroes off the currency is not going to change things.
For all of those who continue to ZANU-PF/Mugabe....... a couple of FACTS!
No one is coming to the rescue of Zimbabwe as long as Comrade Bob holds any semblance of power! Not the IMF, not the World Bank, not the United Natons, not the SADC, not South Africa and not even the Chinese! ZANU-PF/Mugabe's stewardship of the economy of Zimbabwe is out there in bold print for all the world to see. Whether the "empowerment" clique of ZANU-PF/Mugabe or their sycophants want to acknowledge it or not, NOTHING will improve the situation for the people of Zimbabwe with Comrade Bob at the helm.
AND! Comrade Bob's whore Mbeki is going to be gone in a year too! If I were MDC-T, I'd just sit this one out until Mbeki is gone and let ZANU-PF/Mugabe and MDC-M try to govern without Mbecki's backstopping of ZANU-PF and the cooperation of MDC-T! ZANU-PF will soon run out of paper to print the money with which it pays the military and their assorted thugs to maintain control. Just what do you think will happen to the military when the soldiers aren't getting paid?
MDC-T would be better served to remain in opposition and let Mutambara sign his deal with the devil. No deal is better than a bad deal when it comes to dealing with Mugabe as per ZAPU's fate! Zimbabwe is on the precipice of implosion, MDC-T doesn't need the guilt by association with those miscreants! They can come in later and pick up the pieces (w/ Western support) and build a truly democratic and just system once the ZANU-PF/Mugabe and MDC-M government cannibalizes itself!
For those who continue to harp on about the brave defiance of ZANU-PF/Mugabe against the "illegal" sanctions of the "West" and the struggle against the "Imperialist Powers"........
1) What "Western" nation wants to occupy/colonize a nation that is so F@#$'d-up? There are far easier targets to subjugate and exploit than Zimbabwe in it's current state. Raw materials? They have to transit through South Africa or Mozambique or Zambia or Botswana, don't they? Will COSATU allow any large scale exports to exit Zimbabwe for foreign markets at this time? How will ZANU-PF/Mugabe generate hard currency if COSATU really clamps down on Comrade Bob?
2) Where are the Chinese? Aren't they your brothers in the struggle against Imperialism? I guess they too value the security of the rule of law when it comes to making investments with their money! Beware of making deals with the Chinese....... in the end, you will find the terms you received from the "West" were far more generous than you can expect to receive from your revolutionary brothers! They have learned Capitalism, and will manipulate any deals to their advantage. What seems to be a good deal in the short term is simply exchanging one supposed "master" (the "West") for another (less accommodating) Asian one.
3) What has your revolutionary defiance against "Western Imperialism" done to improve the status quo in Zimbabwe (again...... where are your revolutionary Chinese brethren?)
It is time for ZANU-PF/Mugabe to swallow that bitter pill and acknowledge that their rhetoric and posturing have only served to sever any connection between Zimbabwe and the world's financial markets. No one wants to invest in Zimbabwe, no one trusts the security of their capital in Zimbabwe, no one is coming to the rescue of Zimbabwe while Comrade Bob and his henchmen retain any semblance of power.
ZANU-PF/Mugabe are nothing more than a marxist (small M) version of Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos - who fleece the people of Zimbabwe in their misery for the enrichment and empowerment of only themselves! If only Grace Mugabe had as spectacular a collection of shoes as Imelda had!
If ZANU-PF/Mugabe had the wisdom that allegedly comes with age, they would swallow the bitter medicine of accepting that they have failed and cannot succeed without the assistance of the Western Capital Markets, even the Chinese and the Russians accepted this post-communist (small C) truth, and learned to triumph from it!
Sadly, there are no visionaries in ZANU-PF, they only look to the past and their struggle against colonialism. They apparently didn't get the memo the rest of the world got, that it takes money AND a stable economy AND stable political environment to raise the living standards of your population!
ZANU-PF/Mugabe has failed miserably in their stewardship of Zimbabwe! It really doesn't matter what the cause of it is when you have 11 MILLION PERCENT inflation! A worthless national currency! 80% unemployment! 30% of the population in diaspora! It really doesn't matter if you're "proud" of the "total empowerment" ZANU-PF/Mugabe has brought the once "bread-basket" of Africa......... It's tough to feed a family on wages of "pride".
If anyone in ZANU-PF/Mugabe really did care about the people they allegedly "govern", they would "cave-in" to the "West" simply to ease the suffering of the people! But it is obvious, they care more about their pride and their position than the suffering of the people because, whatever their policies, they have failed to provide for the people of Zimbabwe. If they were truly "empowered" they would be able to provide for the people of Zimbabwe whatever the "West" tried to do. They can't, and won't admit to their failure not just concerning "total empowerment", but their ability to provide for the daily needs of their people!
Does anyone remember what happened to Nicolas Ceaucesceu in Romania when the walls came crashing in? There was only a firing squad, against a blank stone wall, in a Romania that was in the chaos of post-communist upheaval videotaped (in poor quality) for posterity............. It is apparently that outcome that ZANU-PF/Mugabe are now destined to repeat. I think it was the Communist Manifesto that said, “Workers of the World (people of Zimbabwe), Unite. You have nothing to lose but your chains!”
A fitting epitaph to the regime of ZANU-PF/Mugabe........ Ironic, isn't it?
11 million in June; 20 million last month; 50 million this month!! Rome burns whilst the emperor fiddles!
Tsvangerai knows full well that he cannot become PM without real executive power. Mugabe must show some leadership and hand over real power lest there is nothing but ashes left to govern.