Zimbabwe is in pole position to clinch the hosting rights to the 2004 African Nations Cup, just hours before the Confederation of African Football's deadline for applications at midnight on August 31.

Three bids are currently on the table for the flagship competition, according to CAF officials, following the withdrawal of a joint application by strife-riven Congo and Congo Democratic Republic.

Zambia, which had also expressed an interest, has failed so far to persuade Malawi to join up to a co-hosting proposal, and is unlikely to pursue its cause.

That leaves Zimbabwe, Tunisia, and a joint bid from Togo and Benin in the race.

The latter are almost certainly non-runners. Benin has only one stadium of the required standard - the Stade de la Paix in Cotonou - while Togo has only two, both in Lomé. CAF's list of requirements, however, specifies four stadiums, preferably in four different sites. The lessons are still, moreover, being digested from the sometimes chaotic exercise that was co-hosting by Ghana and Nigeria of the 2000 finals. Africa is unlikely to want to go through that experience again so soon.

On regional grounds, too, Togo and Benin face an uphill task. Burkina Faso staged the 1998 finals, followed by Ghana and Nigeria this year, while the 2002 tournament is set to go to Mali. With one of CAF's avowed priorities being to spread the investments that go hand-in-hand with the Nations Cup across the continent, there would be little logic in giving West Africa the competition for a fourth successive time.

Tunisia may equally be ruled out by the fact that it has hosted the Nations Cup twice before, most recently in 1984. That was a catastrophe on the pitch, as the national team flopped out in the first round. But organisationally, there is no doubting the Tunisians' capacity to stage a big event. Such are the North Africans' advantages in terms of stadiums, transport and communications, hotels and administration, that Tunisia could conceivably be asked to put itself on standby in case Mali - whose plans are woefully behind schedule - cannot be ready for 2002.

That leaves Zimbabwe - and a delicate judgement for CAF, after the Southern African nation lost the 2000 tournament at the eleventh hour, on grounds of insufficient preparations.

On the one hand, it might be argued that Zimbabwe's plans for the 2000 finals were well advanced before things fell apart, with four venues already chosen and much of the groundwork laid. Southern Africa has never, moreover, bid for and then staged the Nations Cup finals. Malawi was due to do so in 1984 but pulled out, as did Zambia in 1988. When South Africa did host the finals in 1996, it was as a last-minute substitute for Kenya. Hence, Zimbabwe can legitimately argue that it is the region's turn.

That said, CAF will want to be very certain that there is no repeat of the problems which plagued the build-up to the 2000 finals. Though the Zimbabweans pointed bitterly to internal political wrangling within CAF, in practice the preparations lagged from the outset, and Zimbabwe's hopes were finally killed off by a lack of government financial guarantees.

This time, President Robert Mugabe has put his full authority behind the bid, and promised that the necessary guarantees will be made. Yet his ruling Zanu-PF party only narrowly scraped through disputed parliamentary elections earlier this year, the economy is in a parlous mess, and Mr Mugabe himself faces re-election soon.

With Mali's 2002 preparations already in trouble, and the 2000 fiasco still fresh in everyone's minds, CAF may be reluctant to take a chance on Zimbabwe again. But then, each of the alternatives on the table has its drawbacks. A decision has been promised this Saturday, September 2.