Dar es Salaam — The Tanzanian General Election, coming one year after the death of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, may turn out to be a far cry from what Tanzanians have witnessed in the past 40 years, during which Mwalimu's fatherly figure dominated every aspect of their lives.

President Benjamin Mkapa and his ruling party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), have admitted as much. They know that a landslide win is a most unlikely outcome and no party may get more than 50 per cent of the votes cast.

It was not surprising, therefore, that the CCM-dominated parliament endorsed, amid nationwide protests, a constitutional amendment that provides for a simple majority win for a presidential candidate. It was evident that the party cannot garner over 50 per cent votes this time around as was the case in 1995, when Nyerere campaigned for Mkapa and the CCM.

To further secure his position, Mr. Mkapa further sought and got permission from parliament to nominate 10 MPs to the National Assembly, apparently fearing that his party might fail to return enough MPs to the House.

That said, it must be noted that Tanzanians have come a long way in the exercise of their democratic right to choose their leaders.

With the exception of 1958/59 and the 1961 elections, they have religiously gone to the polls every five years, as they will on October 29.

Before the independence of the then Tanganyika in 1961, and prior to the 1964 merger between Tanganyika and Zanzibar that created Tanzania, Tanzanians witnessed many changes in voting conditions and the size of the representative bodies.

There has been a significant increase in the number of voters, the number of parliamentary seats, from 71 in 1961 to 275 in 1995.

In this year's general election, 10,064,266 voters will elect 232 MPs, the President of the United Republic of Tanzania, MPs for the Union Parliament and local government councillors.

Some 439,759 Zanzibar voters, will also elect an Isles president, members of the Zanzibar House of Representatives and local government councillors.

Four political leaders are vying for the top elective office of President of Tanzania. They are the incumbent Benjamin Mkapa of CCM, Prof Ibrahim Lipumba of the Civic United Front (CUF), Augustine Lyatonga Mrema of the Tanzania Labour Party (TLP) and John Momose Cheyo of the United Democratic Party (UDP).

However, the field for the Zanzibari presidency is not as crowded. The contest is between a CCM candidate, Mr. Amani Abed Karume, and a CUF candidate, Mr. Seif Shariff Hamad.

Ironically, it is the hotter one, with both sides having engaged in stone throwing and police firing live bullets, wounding supporters of CUF during electioneering.

Some 1,300 candidates from 13 political parties are vying for 232 constituency seats, although the total number of MPs in the House will rise because of the 15 per cent quota set aside for women and 10 MPs nominated by the president.

In the 1995 elections, Mkapa (CCM) received 61.8 per cent, against Mrema (NCCR-Mageuzi) with 27.8 per cent. Prof Lipumba of CUF got 6.4 per cent, and Cheyo of UDP 4 per cent.

In the 1995 election, CCM won 186 seats or 80 per cent, while CUF won 24 seats (10.3 per cent). NCCR-Mageuzi had 16 seats (6.9 per cent), while Chadema and UDP had three seats (1.3 per cent) each.

In the parliamentary elections, CCM secured 59.22 per cent of votes cast, followed by NCCR-Mageuzi at 21.83 per cent, Chadema with 6.16 per cent, CUF 5.02 per cent and UDP 3.64 per cent.

Eight other parties fielded constituency candidates - NLD, NRA, PONA, TADEA, TLP, TPP, UMD and UPDP- secured one per cent or less. However, they are all running again this year.

The distribution of the 37 special seats for women MPs in the National Assembly was 28 for CCM, four for CUF, three for NCCR-Mageuzi, and one each for Chadema and UDP.

Without the Nyerere factor to contend with, this year's results could see drastic changes. Political observers see Prof Lipumba's CUF, predominantly supported by Muslims, rallying many votes for its presidential and parliamentary candidates than was the case in 1995.

CUF has been projecting itself as the saviour of the poor, particularly Muslims.

Although Prof Lipumba has denied that his is a religious platform, loudspeakers blare atop some mosques in Temeke district of Dar, for example, exhorting the faithful to vote for CUF and "be blessed and enter the kingdom of God" and "never to vote for kaffirs (non- Muslims)."

A united front of the opposition to field a single presidential candidate has proved impossible, because CUF agreed to one only on the condition that its candidates be the ones chosen to lead the pack, a position that did not find favour with the other opposition parties.