Nairobi — Tanzania goes to the polls on Sunday (29 October) for its second multi-party presidential and parliamentary elections, with the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) expected to retain power fairly easily on the mainland but much observer interest focusing on the potential outcome, and the potential for violence, on the semi-autonomous island of Zanzibar.

The island has been plagued by violence for much of the last two months of campaigning between supporters of the CCM and those of the opposition Civic United Front (CUF).

The CCM claimed victory by less than one percent in the 1995 election amid opposition charges of vote-rigging. The CUF led popular protest against that result, a campaign that led to the suspension of donor assistance, after which 18 opposition activists were charged with treason - Amnesty International has called the defendants "prisoners of conscience" - and opposition members of parliament boycotted the assembly for three and a half years. A reconciliation deal brokered by the British Commonwealth in June 1999 has never been implemented by the Zanzibari government.

Political tension remains high in Zanzibar, incidents of violence have included shootings at campaign rallies and there was "a strong possibility of violence during and after the elections", the British Foreign Office reported last Friday, when it advised against all non-essential travel to the Zanzibari islands of Unguja and Pemba. Potential trouble-spots included crowded public areas, political rallies, party offices, voter registration centres and polling stations, it added.

Both the CCM and CUF have also been conducting threatening rallies and planning riots, raising fears of more violence in an already volatile political situation, the BBC reported on Tuesday. Multiple and otherwise illegal registration of voters, negative campaigning, intimidation, threats and bribery have also been reported.

General Robert Mboma of the Tanzanian People's Defence Forces (TPDF) on Thursday appealed for the people of Zanzibar not to panic when they saw army patrols on the streets during polling and vote-counting, saying that their presence was intended to assure that citizens could vote in an atmosphere of peace and tranquillity. Mboma said the mistrust between political parties, inflammatory statements by them and the scenario of registered voters being denied a vote "could result in chaos and disruption of the peace", the Tanzanian newspaper 'Nipashe' reported on Friday.

That said, Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) chairman Mwinyi Abdul Abrahamani maintained on Thursday that all was ready for a peaceful election, the Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC) reported. "I don't believe there will be any bloodshed on 29 October", a pre-election analysis by the centre quoted him as saying.

There are two candidates running for the Isles presidency: Amani Abeid Karume of the CCM (the incumbent, President Salmin Amour, having completed the two terms allowed), and Seif Shariff Hamad, Secretary-General of the CUF. Karume believed he could take "at least 60 percent" of the vote, while Hamad was equally confident and maintained that "the people will not accept a repeat of the events of five years ago", SARDC stated.

That the CCM had put forward the conciliatory Aman Abeid Karume - son of the late Abeid Karume, the island's first president, who was shot dead in 1972 - as presidential candidate at least opened "a window of opportunity for a period of national reconciliation", both on the island and between the island and the mainland, the Economist Intelligence Unit stated in its latest country outlook on Tanzania.

Some observers believed Karume's presence might even allow an elaborate 11-point deal brokered by the Commonwealth to be implemented, which would give the troubled islands some international credibility to begin the process of development, SARDC stated on Thursday.

While there has been violence, threats and intimidation on the islands, the run-up to the election has been relatively calm on the mainland, according to media reports. With the opposition appearing fractious and dominated by individual ambition (despite an electoral agreement between the CUF and Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA)), the ruling CCM is tipped for a relatively easy victory in the Union parliamentary elections, according to political analysts.

There are 231 constituencies for the Union parliament elections, 181 on the mainland and 50 in the Isles, and opposition parties face a difficult task to take more than 100 between them - never mind taking control of parliament, they added.

There are four candidates in the race for the Union presidency: the incumbent, President Benjamin Mkapa of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM); Professor Ibrahim Lipumba of the main opposition Civic United Front (CUF); John Cheyo of the United Democratic Party (UDP); and Augustine Mrema of the Tanzania Labour Party (TLP). All four also contested the 1995 presidential election, though Mrema was then standing for the NCCR-Mageuzi, another opposition party. It is expected that any serious challenge to Mkapa, who took 61.8 percent of the vote in 1995, would come from Lipumba.

Over 200 foreign election observers will monitor the preparations for and conduct of the polls throughout Tanzania and Zanzibar to see if it is free and fair, according to local media reports. The observers - well down on the 450 who participated in the first multi-party elections in 1995 - would monitor the final days of campaigning, voting, the counting of ballot boxes and the announcement of results, among other tasks, they said.

The monitors include teams from the European Union (EU), the British Commonwealth, Southern African Development Community (SADC), Organisation of African Unity (OAU), Canada, Japan, Nigeria, Switzerland and the US.

The election period will be dominated not only by the results but also by whether "the Zanzibari question" can be put to rest, or whether there will be a continuation of the political unrest and sporadic violence that has affected the island since 1995, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Political stability and steady progress on implementing economic reforms meant that Tanzania continued to receive considerable international support, and "although the government's respect for political pluralism is questioned, this is unlikely to attract serious criticism from foreign donors", it said.

"A major reason for this, the EIU added, was that "conflict in neighbouring states of the Great Lakes and elsewhere in central Africa has increased the importance of Tanzania as a centre of regional stability".