Lagos — BUT, the reality has turned out to be a bit more complicated than this. Unfortunately, both ethnicity and religion have come back to haunt many new democracies in Africa in the most negative forms as we see in Rwanda, Algeria or Nigeria.

It is against this background that our discussion must address the issues raised by O'Donnell and Guillermo who warned that the success of transitions lie in the ability of the middle class to decide which side they want to align with. He argues that: The middle class lends a distinctive weight to claims from civil society, they provide some respectability and authority to the discourse of the opposition ... by crossing over to the opposition, middle class elements later help prevent a right wing back lash against any regime that may come to power. We must also realise that there are no certainties in transitions. A lot could happen and we must not be blind to the fact that old orders do not merely concede defeat as if it is an act of charity. Indeed, it is possible to argue that the old order some times merely could wish to the instruments of democracy to install and consolidate itself in power by merely using different faces, but retaining the same objectives. And that is why, Dr Tunji Olagunji et al, argue that: We should not study transitions as if their outcomes are given; as if all that is required is a programme of activities and a time table to be pursued with mere missionary commitment and clock work precisions.

It we focus our discussion on Nigeria, it will not be difficult to see where our attempted Constitutional reforms in Nigeria fit into any why they have tended to always fail. Their failure therefore has to be situated within the larger context of the contending interests on the African continent. In seeking to show case South Africa's Constitutionalism as an ideal, we must place it in proper context. Transitions occur as a result of any of three or more factors: a movement wins an outright war of liberation and draw up a Constitution that meets their ideological raison d'etre, two contending parties decide that none can win an all our war and they decide to negotiate. The constitution that emerges here is an amalgamation of these assorted interests and it is the result of bargains and trade-offs. With time, if the winning stronger side does not manage power properly and returns to the ways of the past, renewed tensions arise as in the case of Zimbabwe. The third situation which is not totally dissimilar to the previous one arises when for example, a ruling class realises that the tide is changing the political environment is no longer profitable for business and the survival of its interests (as in the case of military and civilian dictatorships in Algeria, Nigeria, Kenya or even South Africa under apartheid). The result, therefore, is that contestation becomes a necessary component of transitions and indeed transitions to a just order become an unfinished agenda!

Finally, the emergence of the trappings of democracy across many countries in Africa in themselves do not necessarily mean that a new dawn has arrived. The rise of ethnic militias in Nigeria in the wake democracy, the rise in the curve of ethnic and religious violence are all disturbing, but they are largely an expression of the stress and tensions of transition from an old order to a yet unborn new order. The fact that even the best of both our intellectual and political class still remain ambivalent in condemning the excesses of these militias should tells us a thing or two as to how far we still have to travel on the path of national cohesion across ethnic or religious lines. The tensions which the Sharia crisis triggered across the country, all these are indicators of the fact that our nation still has not managed to exorcise the dark demons of ethno-religious bigotry. They also demonstrate that on anvil of a failed state, where there are no laws, where those who hold power do not as yet possess the moral authority to command loyalty, any weapon will, can be hammered into existence.

It is, therefore, pertinent to raise the question as to whether consitutionalism is a way out and if so, what instruments should we apply? To seek answers to these questions, we even need to ask more questions. For example, what are the limits of Constitutions in governance in Africa? To what extent are the lives of those in power and those of ordinary citizens in Africa regulated by Constitutions? In other words, there is serious need for us to understand the cultural, social, political and economic taboos that still regulate the lives of our people and the extent to which they still impinge on the polity. It is clear to any observer that in most African countries, the informal sectors have overthrown the formal sectors. And this is true from the economy to politics. This is why corruption is so rife in Africa. African leaders, be they military or civilians have always fallen back on traditional systems as a basis of legitimising their hold on power.

We have already referred to some of these examples. However, it is evident that a telephone call at an unholy hour of the night can decide the fortunes of our nation. A phone call from a traditional ruler in a far away corner of an African capital can decide whether an election will be accepted or not, it can decide whether X or Y will become the Vice Chancellor or not, it can decide whether A or B will become the Governor of the Central Bank, the Chief Executive of the National Oil, Gas, Diamond, Gold or Coal board. All these still happen despite the fact that African leaders hold Executive Council Meetings, Meetings of Councils of State, the existence of Senates or Houses of Representatives and State Assemblies.

These are the stark realities that stare us in the face. When the leaders get irritated by the prying eyes of the Media or when such organs of civil society like labour or the Human Rights community, they resort to claiming that we are Africans, we must have home grown democracies, we must return to our cultures, the white man can not tell us what or do or how to run our lives, after all, we ran kingdoms and empires before the white man came. They never confront the fact that their predecessors at least had sanctions that empowered their subjects to oust them!

The new constitutionalism must confront the stress and pull that come with these challenges and decide whether indeed, we need a need a transition from or merger with the old order. There are no quick answers, but we must probe for them.

This brings us to a very important point: what manner of foot soldiers do we need to fight for a new order for Africa? What is clear is that when we talk of a people based Constitution, we tend to focus on the need of the people to have a say. Yet, as we have noted, the idea of the people is still problematic in Africa due to the problems of so called tradition and this is a large measure of why oppression, victimisation and violence persist through the application and deployment of gender, tribe, region, religions, ancestry as instruments of violence. Some times, what passes for a people based Constitution based on a broad based consultative initiative may indeed be nothing more than people presenting a wish list or shopping basket of needs, wants and ambitions. In the case of South Africa's much acclaimed constitutionalism, the 1.7m submissions received finally were whittled down to a mere 11,000. The Commission held over 26 public sittings, with over 2oo Constituent Assembly members and 20,649 people in attendance, and a staggering 717 organisations represented.

Thirdly, it is important for us to understand that no Constitution offers all the cures nor is it a one size fits all. Beyond being a mere declaration of intentions, it is a blind document which can not see into the future. As a result, what is really needed is a process that can help install institutions, ideas and ideals around which civil society can be firmly built as a stepping stone to the emergence of people power. Even in its purest form, People power has its own serious ideological contradictions. Some times, it is nothing more than a platform for the channelling of discontent against the existing order. Consequently, people power can be propelled by a common enemy (the existing order) and yet lack a common vision. It is easy for people to believe that they see what the are united against, but what they are united for can be a will-o'-the-wisp.

Raise questions about the nature of the characters who got into power and the time frame within which interests were really allowed the conflate. A shot gun transition will always tend to lend itself to amnesia and the haste to get the old order out. South Africa's transition created the right environment for the explosions and implosions of internally and externally propelled contradictions regarding race, ethnicity, and class, the three contending forces in the system. In the case of Nigeria, there was no time for even a dialogue with the old order. Nigerians were said to be yearning for Democracy and thoroughly fed up with the military. With too many pretenders to the throne of Democracy, we mistook the wood for the trees. These are some of the contradictions which continue to dog the process. Be that as it may, it would seem to me that there is hope at the end of it all. If only government develops the sophistication and acquires the necessary tools to deal with the social problems created by unemployment and moves fast to fill in the perceived power vacuum, it can at least attempt to occupy the moral high ground. The tensions generated by ethnic militias will persist until the President demonstrates that it has won the legitimate right to occupy the moral high ground.

In the case of South Africa and Nigeria, the idea of Truth Commissions has been adopted, but not without its own problems. From the revelations, there are many who would suggest that a collective amnesia would have been a better alternative. Whatever may be the limitations of these investigations, many argue that they should not be exercises in witch hunting. Yet, I believe that if indeed we have witches, hunting them is very important. Not all witch as long as it is not caught. In the process, its double- faced life is what constitutes the problem. If a witch can be made to repent, at least that will set it on the path of personal liberation as a basis for national liberation. Yet, there is the witch in each and every one of us. So, beyond the theatricals of those who have been caught, a new Africa will never emerge until we all confess and seek renewal in whatever shape or form.

The future of Africa depends substantially on how well Nigeria and South Africa reposition themselves. While a false picture of competition is being painted, both nations must realise their peculiarities. Whatever happens to South Africa, it is not about to become the focal point of all black people the world over. Only Nigeria has the capacity to play that role. If Nigeria fails in that role, it will never be forgiven. As we trudge on in the valley of tears while the rest of the world moves on the fast track, Africa's choices seem to be encapsulated in what Friedman meant calls the Lexus and the Olive Tree. It is a delicate choice that does not have to sacrifice one value for the other. He captured the essence of this choice thus:

Any society that wants to thrive economically today must constantly be trying to build a better Lexus and driving it our into the world. But no one should have any illusions that merely participating in the global economy will make a country healthy. If participation comes at the price of a country's identity, individuals will feel their olive tree roots crushed, or washed out by this global system, those olive tree roots will rebel. They will rise up and strangle the process ... A country without healthy olive trees will never feel rooted or secure enough to open up fully to the world and reach out to it. But a country that is only olive trees, that has only roots, and has no Lexus, will never go, or grow very far. Keeping the two in balance is a constant struggle. Finding that balance is what has enabled many famous acrobats to dance on a tight rope while throwing up six eggs in the air. Perhaps Africa needs more and more acrobats as we walk into the new millennium. May God give us the grace and show us the way.

Concluded

Rev. Fr Kukah is consultant to the Pontifical Council on Inter- religious Dialogue at the Vatican City, Rome.