17 July 2001
Nairobi — As a result of poor Gu rains and reduced yields, rain-fed crop production in the Bay, Bakool, Hiran and Gedo regions of southern Somalia will be well below last year's level and significantly below the 1993-2000 postwar average, according to a report released 13 July by the Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) for Somalia. Meanwhile, crop production in Middle and Lower Juba is expected to fair better this year, after a poor harvest in 2000. Prospects are also good in Lower Shebelle, although the FSAU notes the performance of rain-fed maize will be highly dependent on the Hagai rains, normally expected between the end of June and the beginning of August.
The expected poor performance of this year's sorghum crop in Bay and Bakool is of particular concern. FSAU estimates the area established to be 142,000 hectares - 35 percent down on the postwar average. While good yields last year helped to boost production, the converse is anticipated this year, with total sorghum production for southern Somalia not expected to exceed 35,700 mt. Bay and Bakool regions, which normally contribute 60 percent of sorghum production in southern Somalia, received very poor Gu rains this year, according to the FSAU, with only one day of good rains reported for Bakool in April and no rainfall at all during May. The resulting poor performance of the sorghum crop is expected to have a negative impact on food availability in southern Somalia up to the next Deyr harvest in December.
Unlike the poor prospects for sorghum, the 2001 Gu cropping season is expected to be favourable to maize. In its report, the FSAU notes that, as in previous years, the bulk of maize production will come from irrigated farms along the Shebelle and Juba rivers. An estimated 156,000 hectares of maize has been established in southern Somalia this year, and production of 131,000 mt is expected, significantly higher than the postwar average. Assistance from international NGOs and aid agencies in rehabilitating irrigation structures has been beneficial to farmers in Lower and Middle Shebelle; however, the high price of diesel fuel as a result of the devaluation of the Somali shilling has hindered farmers in Hiran.
The FSAU report warns that the food security situation in Gedo Region, particularly the northern part, is still "of great concern". This is due to a combination of factors, including: several poor seasons in the recent past, asset depletion followed by only partial recovery in 2000, erratic Gu rains this year, insecurity, low food stocks and a high dependence on sorghum production in Bay and Bakool. Elsewhere, the harvests last year were good enough to provide better-off families with sufficient grain stocks to carry over a substantial quantity to this year, providing a useful buffer. With fewer resources, poorer farmers are in a more vulnerable position, and the FSAU consider the performance of the coming Deyr harvest to be "critical" in determining the situation in the coming year. "Anything less than normal for Bay and Bakool will have a dramatic effect in terms of food security, not only on these two regions but also on areas that draw on them for their grain purchases," the report concludes.
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