Dennis Onyango
7 October 2001
analysis
Mrs Alisia Premchand summoned her staff of four people at her Nairobi tour firm last week and delivered a message she says she did not like to: "If things remain like this for the next two weeks, I don't think I will be able to pay your salaries."
She then moved to the bookshop she runs a few streets away and where business has also been very slow. People who used to buy four books now buy one, or don't buy at all.
"The hippie tourists who will buy all sorts of books are no longer there," Mrs Premchand complained.
At the bookshop, she delivered the bad message again to her staff of five.
"Look here. If the next two weeks remain like this, I may not be able to pay salaries. We really have to pull up our socks."
Mrs Premchand does not know what the staff should do. What she is clear on is that soon, unless the Government steps in, more companies are going to retrench more workers and it is likely to be worse than what the then Richard Leakey-led "Dream Team" did in the public service.
"I see the kind of retrenchment that can make a government unpopular and unstable."
It all has to do with the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.
As America puts the world on a war footing against terrorists, economies oceans away are feeling the pinch, a case of war for us all but every economy to itself.
Business people in Kenya are hard hit. Nobody knows how and when it will end and the Government seems unable to do anything about it. But there is also hope that the threat of war may pull tourists from the North African countries of Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, depending on how Kenya handles the situation.
"People don't realise how bad this is going to be. It is not just the travellers who are affected. This affects everything. The tourism industry is in chaos and because it is a billion-dollar mass-employer industry, job security is gone. This is just the beginning," says Mr Stephen Smith, the General Manager of the Nairobi Safari Club.
Curio dealers affected, too
From curio dealers to antiques shops, open-air markets, five-star hotels and foreign exchange bureaux, the loss is real amid faint hopes that things will pick up.
Mr Bipin Amin of Zebra Crafts Ltd, an antiques seller in Nairobi's city centre, says: "Our business is finished. This is the worst I have gone through in my life. I have had this shop for the past 30 years. But I have never seen this kind of situation before," says.
"I deal in antiques," Mr Amin says. "I don't expect an African or an Asian to come to my shop and buy anything. I deal entirely with Europeans and Americans. In the past two weeks, I only see one tourist in my shop, if I'm lucky. And that's from Monday to Friday. Now we just open the shop to clean it and close again in the evening."
Mr Amin used to employ five people, but reduced the number to two when tourism slumped following the violence at Likoni, Mombasa, in 1997.
"I will retain only two people. I need somebody to send to pay my telephone and electricity bills. We've given up on making profits."
He thinks the Government should "take some kind of action". "We see President George Bush appearing at businesses to encourage them to go on and also going on TV to urge Americans to spend. How come we don't have such assurances here?"
This was supposed to be a peak season for tourism and things looked bright from the start, says a manager with Giant Forex Bureau De Change at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Nairobi.
"Suddenly, tourist arrivals dropped by about 50 per cent. European tourists are suddenly not coming. Business just went down. It was so sudden. Before that, there were signs that this was going to be one of the best seasons," the manager said.
He still hopes business will pick up so he does not have to retrench his six employees.
"In the past few days, there have been signs that people are starting to travel again. I hope it will get better after this week. The Government should go out of its way to market the country and urge tourists to come here."
Business people complain that there is "a general unease even around local clients, with people unwilling to spend. It is like people are holding their breath to see what will happen. I don't know what people are spending their money on. But they are not buying," Mrs Premchand said.
The ability to market the country, some tour operators say, is what may determine whether Kenya benefits or loses as the war looms.
According to Mr Mike Kirkland, the vice-chairman of the Kenya Tourist Federation, most European tourists who take their annual holidays in the North African nations of Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt may avoid those destinations because of fears insecurity.
"The perpetual lack of seats on chartered flights to Kenya could be solved as most planes which have hitherto been used to fly to North Africa could now be rerouted to our destination," says Mr Kirkland, who is also the proprietor of Southern Cross Safaris.
But he warned that it would be foolhardy to begin celebrating too early because the Government must first guarantee safety and peace, not only to the tourists but to its citizens, as well.
"However, all in all, Kenya stands to benefit," Mr Kirkland added.
Kenya was just beginning to come out of the woods after almost four years of a recession caused by the Likoni clashes but the current military build-up in the Middle East is already causing jitters in the local tourism industry.
However, according to major players in the tourism industry, there have been no cancellations for the coming winter season. But stakeholders are praying that no full-scale war breaks out in the Middle East.
So far, it has been business as usual for boat operators on the North Coast, although they are worried that the situation could easily lapse into another recession.
"Guests are still coming. The small number of tourists is understandable because we are still in the low season," Mr John Tabu, who runs a glass boat on the Serena beach, Mombasa, said in an interview with Sunday Nation.
He said the operators' main complaint is that some of the hotels in the neighbourhood are bringing in tourists on packages which include sea trips using boats operated directly by companies allied to them.
Curio dealers are also reporting business as usual on the North Coast but they are concerned that if airlines stop flying to Kenya because of insecure skies, then the industry could collapse.
The secretary of Shanzu Dealers Association, Mr Mututa Mbuvi, said: "So far, we have not noticed much change in the number of tourists compared to the same time last year. But like everybody else, we are worried that war would spell doom for us."
Taxi operators, on the other hand, complain that there are too many of them chasing too few clients.
Operator Suleiman Omar said: "We have not noticed any change in the number of arrivals at the Moi International Airport, Mombasa. At this time of the year, tourism is normally low. That is what we are complaining about."
Opinion has been divided in the tourism industry on the threat of war in the Middle East, with some saying that it would be a boon for Kenya while others say it would have adverse effects on the sector.
A blessing in disguise
Those who see the developments as a blessing in disguise argue that most of the European tourists who have been holidaying in America were likely to switch to Caribbean, East and Southern Africa.
At least a million Germans go on vacation to the US, and with Washington still warning of imminent terrorist attacks, the majority of them could opt to either stay at home or travel to relatively safer places. Kenya could benefit.
But even in the middle of the gloom, some hotels on the North Coast are continuing with the refurbishment of their units. Leisure Lodge Beach and Golf Resort has just launched a multi-million-shilling-shilling refurbishment programme.
According to the hotel's Chief Executive Officer, Mr John Mutua, there is hope in the despair. It is better to invest in the improvement of hotels rather than be caught unawares when suddenly the tide of tourism flows towards Kenya, he says.
Several other hotels have just finished renovations. They include Turtle Bay Hotel, Kilili Baharini, Tropical Village, all in Malindi, and Leopard Beach Hotel on the South Coast.
Even as they renovate, industry officials are also aware that with the cost of international travel going up, long-haul destinations like Kenya may be shunned by tourists.
A seat on a charter flight costs between $350 and $400 (nearly Sh30,000) from the European capitals to Mombasa.
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