Mail & Guardian (Johannesburg)
12 October 2001
analysis
Given the undiluted horror of what happened on September 11, it is not hard to understand the United States's desire for revenge. How would South Africans feel if terrorists crashed planes into the centre of Johannesburg, killing thousands of ordinary people? But this does not change the fact that the US military operation in Afghanistan is a very dangerous, futile and possibly self-defeating show of force.
It is unclear what purpose is served by bombing the house of Taliban leader Mullah Omar no less than three times when he is not there. Why disable every airstrip in the country when the Afghans have fewer than a dozen outdated military aircraft? Why destroy terrorist camps when these will have been long abandoned? The strategic purpose may be to topple the Taliban by heightening their unpopularity, sapping their military strength and bolstering the Northern Alliance. But who or what is to replace them? And even if the fall of the Taliban makes it easier for the US to get its hands on Osama bin Laden, how much will this contribute to a successful world campaign against terror? The US itself admits that the al-Qaida network consists of semi-autonomous cells in 60 countries. The point about ideological terrorism, particularly of the suicidal kind, is that it requires few conspirators, few resources and no central planning.
Already there are signs that the fragile world alliance assembled by the US and Britain is under strain. Iran, whose condemnation of the September 11 attacks was seen as a diplomatic coup, has denounced the US operation. Indonesia, the largest single concentration of Muslims in the world, has cautiously distanced itself.
There is no meaningful danger of an Armageddon between the West and Islam. But the defection of the US's temporary or even longer-term allies in the Muslim world further undermine the legitimacy of the US operation and strengthen the hand of those who are seeking to project it as a religious war. The operation plays into the hands of Islamic extremists, who - as Bin Laden's prepared broadcast illustrates - were clearly expecting it and see it as phase two of a plan. The more civilian casualties mount and the greater the humanitarian crisis on Afghanistan's borders, the more glamorous anti-American martyrdom will appear to Islamic militants across the world.
Marais must go
Those who dismiss the Democratic Alliance as irrelevant, or worse, need to ask themselves how well South Africa's parliamentary democracy would fare if the opposition comprised only the United Democratic Movement, the Pan Africanist Congress and the Freedom Front. It remains far short of winning state power, but the alliance is the closest thing we have to an effective opposition
So the war in the DA over whether to reinstate or remove Cape Town mayor Peter Marais is no sideshow. The alliance could split over the issue, or, more seriously, fatally compromise both its components in the eyes of the electorate.
Marais was told by DA leader Tony Leon to take a holiday following the vote-rigging scandal prompted by his determination to rename two Cape Town city centre streets. Leon took the view that, if there were serious doubts about a sitting mayor's ability to bring to his office minimal qualities of dignity, integrity, service and propriety, he should remain on holiday until doubts were removed.
Marais disagrees. What is more surprising, however, is that New National Party leaders who should know better, including Marthinus van Schalkwyk, are equivocating over Marais's actions, to the point of humouring him. The Western Cape coloured community from which Marais comes is the NNP's last stronghold. Behind Van Schalkwyk's stance lie concerns about maintaining that power base and securing his own position in the DA leadership.
It is a short-sighted strategy. Does Van Schalkwyk really believe the interests of NNP leaders will be served by endangering the alliance? Can he survive if the DA's professed liberal principles and claims to offer clean government are compromised? Can his lacklustre leadership manage without Leon's flamboyant charisma?
The weakness of the NNP's organisation, and its policy incoherence, were cruelly exposed at the last election. Appeasing Marais can only reinforce the impression that it has nothing to offer the electorate.
Hands off the Scorpions
The M&G has suggested that the arrest of African National Congress MP Tony Yengeni might be a diversionary tactic. Raids this week on companies and individuals linked to the corvettes component of the arms package indicate we were unfair. It seems prosecutions director Bulelani Ngcuka is doing his damnedest to conduct a proper investigation - and that he is encountering official obstruction and political pressure.
Our point is a simple one: the arms deal mess will get messier for the government if there are perceptions of a police cover-up. Ngcuka should be given every assistance, and left alone to do his job.
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