South African Press Association (Johannesburg)
9 December 2001
Cape Town — The Zimbabwe crisis could deteriorate to a point where that country could become "another battlefield like the Democratic Republic of Congo", the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) has warned.
In a critical and frank assessment of the political situation brewing in South Africa's northern neighbour, SAIIA deputy chairman Moeletsi Mbeki said the time had come for more drastic measures to defuse the looming danger.
One of the ways this could be achieved, he said, was for South Africa to pull Zimbabwe's economic plug.
Speaking on SABC's newsmaker programme on Sunday, the day before a Southern African Development Community (SADC) ministerial task force meeting in Harare, Mbeki said he did not think the meeting would make any difference.
SADC ministers are flying into the Zimbabwean capital on Monday to review and deliberate on political and economic developments in that country.
But Mbeki warned SADC was "a very weak organisation", and many of its member states did not have the "muscle" to stand up to Zimbabwe.
It would be up to South Africa to take the initiative.
"South Africa is the one country that is going to be hurt the most by the Zimbabwe crisis, so it is the country that has to take most of the action."
One example of the South African government's failure to act was "the whole issue of the electricity bill payment".
"There's been comings and goings about the (electricity) debt owed to South Africa.
"But instead of pulling the plug, South Africa has looked for ways of, for example, turning the debt into equity, or becoming a shareholder in the Zimbabwean electricity supply.
"The overall perception on the Zimbabwean side is that the South African government is weak -- from 1996 to now this has been the perception in the mind of Zimbabweans."
He said the time had come for more drastic measures on the part of South Africa.
"You know, most of Zimbabwe's trade goes through South Africa. We must be their biggest trading partner.
"So we can stop the Zimbabwean economy tomorrow if we wanted to. We have the muscle."
Asked if this would be in South Africa's best interests, he said: "I suspect it will, because if the (Zimbabwean) government is not able to deliver a modicum of welfare to its population, then there is only one way of staying in government, and that's through force."
Asked to comment on the prospects of free and fair elections in Zimbabwe next year, he said the ruling Zanu (PF) "invasion" of Bulawayo two weeks ago -- by so-called war veterans, who burnt down opposition party offices -- had been a "dress rehearsal" for 2002.
"Elections will definitely not be free and fair.
"I understand the Libyans have moved elements of their military there, and the Angolans are sending small-arms to Zimbabwe to arm the militias that Zanu (PF) is training.
"It looks like there is preparation for a major onslaught against the population, and against the supporters of the opposition movement," Mbeki said.
Zimbabwe had been interfering in the affairs of other countries in the region -- its involvement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was an example of this -- and although it enjoyed the support of countries such as Angola and Libya, it also had enemies.
"So Zimbabwe could, in fact, become another battlefield like the DRC, with armies from all over the place slogging it out. Because if there's a firefight in Zimbabwe, you can't expect Rwanda and the countries that are opposed to Zimbabwe not to take advantage of that situation."
Mbeki said the South African government had a long history of doing nothing in the face of provocation by Zimbabwe's Zanu (PF) government.
"So in a way it has backed itself into a corner where it is now difficult for it to do anything."
He cited as an example of this President Robert Mugabe's handover of the SADC chairmanship.
"He handed over the chairmanship to former president Nelson Mandela, but kept the committee on security and politics.
"It now turns up, according to articles in that country's Herald newspaper, that in the view of the Zimbabweans they didn't think the South African government was in any case legitimate enough to look after the security of the SADC region."
In the eyes of the Zimbabwean government, there was a "legitimacy problem" with the South African government.
The mistake South Africa had made was to allow this situation to "fester unresolved", and to allow former president Nelson Mandela to take over the chairmanship, "without forcing Zimbabwe either to be kicked out of SADC, or South Africa to leave SADC".
Asked what he thought would happen if Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe won next year's election, he said in his view the situation would get "worse and worse".
"The only way he can win is if the elections are not free and fair, and all indications are that they will not be.
"I think the United States and the European Union will impose sanctions; South Africa will have to do something; and the situation in Zimbabwe will deteriorate," he said.
-- On Tuesday last week, the US House of Representatives passed legislation allowing the imposition of sanctions against Zimbabwe, including personal sanctions against Mugabe and his ruling elite.
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