africanconflict.org
Hussein Ali Soke
7 January 2002
[africanconflict.org introduction] Hussein Ali Soke, a regular East Africa correspondent for Africa Conflict Journal, recently visited his home-country of Somalia to report on the U.S. led campaign against terrorism which has now spread to Somalia. Soke discusses the mood on the ground and whether Somalis are truly linked to global terrorism, or if they have simply become victims of the anit-terrorism campaign. Soke writes:
"The Somalia coastline is heavily pirated by businessmen allied to the warlords and who do business with international companies.
This also explains the eagerness by the warlords to justify Al-ithad presence and invite Washington’s intervention. They are hoping to be allies of the USA in the war so as to sweep into power just like the northern alliance forces in Afghanistan.
However, they don’t enjoy the support of the poor residents. I met some families that were traumatized by the previous US led 'operation restore hope’, young girls that were raped, families that lost their loved ones, and they don’t want any operations here and are ready to sabotage the mission. Most remain armed."
Somalia has not been a country for the last eleven years. The civil war that followed the ousting of Siad Barre in 1990 has led to a scenario that fits Hobbs' classical state of nature characterized by 'war of all against all’. Every semblance of infrastructure was destroyed, hundreds of thousands killed, raped or maimed, and the country balkanized into fiefdoms controlled by warlords and clan militias.
Somalia thus fits every description of a failed state, awash with arms, and where people increasingly rely on instinct to survive just as in pre-medieval era. It was no surprise to many observers then when the US led war on terror turned its spotlight on Somalia during their operation in Afghanistan.
The US justifies its rumored impending action on this background and as well as on the absence of a central government since 1990. It is argued that this makes the country a safe-haven for fundamentalist, extremist Muslim groups who will easily operate out of Somalia that is 100% Muslim. The spectra of failed states supposedly makes them vulnerable to manipulation by non-state actors like Al qaeda and other groups that are bent on capitalizing on the desperate situation of the populace, and the seemingly good prospects of the aura of invisibility offered by failed states.
To get a clearer picture I took an extensive two-week tour of Somalia, to find out whether the allegations hold water. My flight out of Nairobi was by the UN charter air service [UNCAS]. The UN flights constitute the safest and reliable means of transport to Somalia. The first stop over of the tour was in Baidoa. This is the town that was the scene of the devastating famine in 1990 that left hundreds of thousands dead and which galvanized the international community into a massive humanitarian intervention led by the US.
The operation code named 'operation restore hope’ ended in the tragic death of 19 US soldiers in Mogadishu the capital city. Much hasn’t changed here, the situation is still grim, worsened by crop failure, and the closure of Al barakaat, the Somalia money wire agency.
The people here still rely on food rations provided by international agencies, mainly the WFP. The food security situation is grim, and capacities of households are severely weakened. The villagers wear grim faces, just hoping for a change for the better.
I never encountered anything close to insecurity. Apart from the militia guarding the airstrip, there were no armed civilians in the streets of Baidoa. The people here are preoccupied with survival issues, heavily dependent on aid and very vulnerable to disruptions in food supply.
I took the next flight to Hargeisa two hours away. Hargeisa is the capital of self-declared autonomous republic of Somaliland, which is still grappling with the question of legitimacy and international recognition.
The airport is clean, the immigration officials were well trained and hawk eyed. I paid the 20$ visa tax and proceeded to my hotel. The streets are paved and clean and manned by traffic police. Businesses are booming and posh homes are coming up rapidly in the neighborhoods.
This was a real departure from the anarchy that is portrayed in the international media.
There was no doubt that this city was much safer than Nairobi. Women paraded expensive gold chains in the market, money dealers engaged in changing money carried huge wads of US dollars without the slightest hint of fear in their faces. The serene peaceful nature of Hargeisa has enabled Somali families in the gulf, Europe and America to come back and settle. I hardly saw any guns in the streets, and the law here stipulates mandatory minimum jail term of five years for civilians found in possession of offensive weapons.
HOW has peace been maintained here?
The current regime of President Mohammed Ibrahim Egal took over power in a referendum that was held in 1995. In that referendum all Somalis were challenged to bring back their families from abroad to demonstrate their genuine commitment to peace. It was after abiding with this key demand that the peace process was started.
The referendum voted for establishment of a provisional government to oversee the fragile peace process, and to uphold the agreed upon constitution. The five-year government of president Egal has the overwhelming endorsement of the people here, despite the absence of international recognition. It has worked hard and elections for the next president are due in early January.
The militia here were disbanded, and integrated into the army and the police. The roads destroyed during civil war have been rehabilitated through EU funding.
Business is booming because of low taxes and proximity to the Gulf. The currency here is still devaluated and changes for 6,000 to the dollar. Every transaction however is fixed to the dollar. All the six districts that constitute the republic are safe and serene.
I visited Los Anod 553km north of Hargeisa, a place it is alleged has Al -ithad presence [a Moslem group linked to Al qaeda]. However the allegation is misplaced. The government here banned Al ithad from operating within the republic because it was presenting a real challenge to the weak government of Somaliland. This necessitated the groups shift to the south and puntland region. The system here should as well be the prototype for a future united Somalia.
If the system implemented in Somaliland was to be replicated across the whole country genuine peace may evolve.
I flew to Bossasso in Puntland... Another breakaway republic. The city of Bossasso is also serene and peaceful. The capital of Puntland is in Garowe. This city experienced tension few weeks ago when the citizens demanded the end of Col. Abdullahi Yussuffs regime. The colonel held ground and in the aftermath of the rebellion scores died and the regime held on. The colonel may as well hold the key to the US intervention in Somalia. For he has successfully together with his Ethiopian allies and neighbors repulsed and removed Al Ithad supporters from the region. I believe the colonel has useful intelligence on the exact whereabouts of the group and together, with the Ethiopians, hold much needed information.
I took on a journey to the south having visited the two breakaway republics in the north of Somalia. The UNCAS plane landed at 'K50’ the only safe airport on the outskirts of Mogadishu. I had to find an alternative means into Mogadishu. Luckily I found a charter plane transporting 'Khat’ into Mogadishu. I boarded the charter plane and landed in Baledolgle, a dangerous airport controlled by Hussein Aideed--the main warlord here.
I encountered heavily armed militia who immediately frisked me and demanded ‘toll tax’. I parted with 50$, no receipt, no questions, and my Somali features couldn’t help either. It’s pure anarchy here...period.
There were no posh 4 by 4’s the likes that I saw in the northern regions. People here are accustomed to battered down jalopies used as taxis, since the militia readily seizes any relatively better vehicle. The streets are patrolled with 'technicals’. These are convertible land cruisers mounted with M16’s. The streets of Mogadishu epitomize every aspect of the degeneration of Somalia as portrayed in the international media. The main warlords have contributed to the evolution of a significant war based economy that benefits them immensely and buys them loyalty. They charge tax on every semblance of infrastructure under their control. Even aid agencies are not spared. A significant portion of the population is dirt poor and rely on food supply from aid agencies. This also explains the difference in their interventions.
In the northern parts of Somalia, the agencies are funding long impact projects because of the peace and sustainability of the projects. In the south, it’s all emergency programs and quick impact projects. The warlords always spoil for a war. To them anarchy is business, war is profitable. This also explains why the two main warlords Hussein Aideed and Hussein Mohammed nur alias 'Shagaddud’ boycotted the Nairobi peace talks held last Friday. They have always railroaded any peace initiative. Though it must be understood they command thousands of loyal militia and there will be no peace unless the warlords are involved in the peace process and the militia disarmed.
The arsenal in the streets is awesome. I went to the main arms market –the baqara market. Everything is on sale here including anti-aircraft missiles. The main restriction to the sale is that you must belong to the main conglomeration of clans that control the streets [the Hawiye clan]. The warlords want to maintain their edge over rival militias and thus hang onto the arsenal to keep competitors out of business. The transitional government controls pockets of the city and the influence of president is waning and he has been unable to control the city and restore calm. The Somalia coastline is heavily pirated by businessmen allied to the warlords and who do business with international companies.
This also explains the eagerness by the warlords to justify Al-ithad presence and invite Washington’s intervention. They are hoping to be allies of the USA in the war so as to sweep into power just like the northern alliance forces in Afghanistan.
However, they don’t enjoy the support of the poor residents. I met some families that were traumatized by the previous US led 'operation restore hope’, young girls that were raped, families that lost their loved ones, and they don’t want any operations here and are ready to sabotage the mission, and most remain armed. The movie the black hawk down set to premier in January may give the world a sneak preview of the atrocities that was committed by the US marines in the 1993.
The devastation here is still evident. Households are severely weakened. The closure of Al -barakaat has contributed to worsening fortunes for Somali families this year. Two supporting mechanisms have always helped the Somalis to survive.
The first is livestock sales. The ban on livestock last year by Saudi Arabia and Gulf States diminished this resource. The second and very important support mechanism for Somali families is the remittances from the millions of Somalis scattered abroad. The remittances supported over 90% of families in urban and rural areas.
The closure of Al-Barakaat by George Bush has disrupted the resources for thousands of families. Al barakaat also was the largest formal employer in Somalia, and also the main service provider of telecommunication, Internet and financial services. All these services remain disrupted and remittances are not forth coming. The alternative remains in the other company; Dahabshil money wire service, which however has limited scope. A visit to even the most remote villages will confirm the superiority and efficiency of Al -Barakkat, since you will find their branches everywhere you go. The people here and across Somalia are angry at the closure and are asking for credible evidence from Washington.
To sum up my travel I went down south in the Gedo region especially in the districts of Bay and Bakol. These areas used to be Al-ithad strongholds. However they were swept away by Ethiopian forces. It should be understood that Al- ithad initially came in to fill the vacuum of government by offering succor to the poor and building schools as well as enforcing sharia laws in areas under their control. They encountered resistance from local populations mainly because of their strict interpretation of Islam and their edict of banning 'Khat’ a mild drug used by 90% of Somalis. Later on they were removed from their stronghold in Bossasso by a combined contingent of Ethiopian troops and local militias. The group now controls no specific district in Somalia and the threat they pose is simply overrated.
Most people don’t understand the group’s link to Al qaeda except maybe in their strict interpretation and enforcement of Islam. The majority thus feel the allegations border on malice and find the rumored operation by the USA to be part of a wider conspiracy.
The whole of Gedo region has suffered massive crop failure due to the failure of onset of 'GU’ rainy season. The latest estimates by WFP are that 500,000 people are faced with starvation and imminent death if the international community does not moved fast.
And indeed I witnessed first hand the starvation, the malnutrition and the helplessness of the residents of the districts of Bay and Bakool and the entire region. Any intervention in Somalia should thus be guarded and measured. If it involves scorched earth policy it will just worsen the already desperate humanitarian situation in Somalia, and undermine the active interventions by aid agencies to forestall a catastrophe that is emminent.
The US should heed wise counsel and seek more intelligence information in possession of Ethiopian’s if the goal is eliminating Al-ithad and making Somalia safe from marauding terrorists.
Any confrontation between the most industrialized country and a country at the bottom of human development index will be a catastrophe beyond imagination.
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