Financial Gazette (Harare)
11 April 2002
Madagascar's political crisis is likely to turn increasingly violent as frustrated supporters of the island's two rival leaders resort to war tactics to break the deadlock, analysts said this week.
The vast Indian Ocean island off southeast Africa is divided between two presidents, two cabinets and a split military.
Self-declared President Marc Ravalomanana, who says he won December elections but was cheated out of victory by vote rigging, controls the capital. Veteran President Didier Ratsiraka, who says no one won the poll and wants a second round of voting, retains considerable support in the provinces.
Until recently, the conflict was predominantly peaceful but as the standoff drags on, people have become impatient and are starting to take matters into their own hands.
Supporters of Ratsiraka recently blew up bridges and reinforced barricades on roads leading to Antananarivo to besiege the city, draining fuel stocks almost dry and severely restricting supplies of sugar, salt and oil. The houses of two ministers were raided this week, cars set on fire.
There are constant rumours, unproven but provocative: Algerian parachutists descend into Antananarivo by night, foreign mercenaries fly in to back embattled Ratsiraka, coup attempts are plotted.
About 25 people have already died in clashes between the two camps, the two leaders appear increasingly belligerent and participants say the deadlock could well boil over.
"The people are fed up, and they want to act," Elie Rajaonarison, an adviser to Ravalomanana, said.
"For now, we are calming people down, but how long can that last? It is not a political crisis any more, we have to look at this in terms of war in Madagascar. The international community needs to see it like that - once it erupts, it will be too late."
Throughout his campaign to have the results of December 16 polls recounted, Ravalomanana enjoyed huge support from the people of Antananarivo, joining a general strike and demanding Ratsiraka to step down.
Though this support has not yet wavered, analysts said it was being increasingly tested by the lack of supplies. People are frustrated that Ravalomanana, who they saw as a virtual messiah, has been unable to return life to normal.
"I think violence is going to be on the increase," Christopher Eads, a London-based analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit, said. "As Antananarivo deteriorates more and more - and it's already in a horrible state - desperation breeds acts of violence."
With frustration mounting, Ravalomanana last week urged the country to stay united. "The nation is under threat," he told national television, announcing the formation of a national security council to protect against "acts of terrorism".
But Francis Soler, editor of the Paris-based Indian Ocean Newsletter, said he was pessimistic about the outlook in Madagascar given that neither president was prepared to give an inch.
"I can't see how it can't get more violent," he said. "I can't see any other solution. There's no dialogue possible any more.
"There is not necessarily going to be a military clash . . . sbut if on a barricade pro-Ratsiraka soldiers are on one side and pro-Ravalomanana people on the other, there will be clashes, there will be pockets of civil war in the country."
Most analysts concur that, though the crisis is likely to go on for months, it is Ratsiraka who is gradually losing ground and is likely to emerge the loser.
A former socialist general, he has ruled Madagascar for more than 20 years. Opponents say his regime's deep-rooted corruption has ravaged the island of 15 million.
His bid to impose martial law on the capital was ignored by residents and unenforced by the general appointed to enforce it.
At least three of his ministers have resigned, one telling Reuters at the time there was no cohesion in the country's "official" cabinet.
A spokesman for Ratsiraka's cabinet, Pierre Holder, said there was no question of civil war, but added that the situation was totally blocked.
"Ratsiraka's government is cornered," he said. "Ravalomanana has absolute control of the capital. On the other hand, Ravalomanana is stuck too, because though he has people in the ministries, they can't do anything because (due to the blockades) there's no money."
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