Vincent Kahiya
13 September 2002
AS President Robert Mugabe savours his new-found glory wrought by his anti-British bluster at the Earth Summit in South Africa last week, he still has to contend with the sad reality that without international support his agrarian revolution is doomed.
In December Chief Justice Godfrey Chidyausiku, reversing an earlier Supreme Court judgement by Chief Justice Anthony Gubbay, ruled that government had in place a proper land reform programme.
Buoyed by the Supreme Court endorsement of its agrarian undertaking government decided to proceed with the expropriation of commercial farmland to effect a resettlement programme that was widely expected to encounter problems so long as it did not follow the basic tenets of legality and sustainability. International financial support would only come with donors' endorsement of the agrarian policy.
In 1998 government convened a donors' conference to mobilise support for phase II of the resettlement programme. Agreements were signed between the government and key donors keen to proceed on the basis of a trial programme that would later be expanded based on the success of the experiment.
That was too slow for the Zanu PF government, which wanted something dramatic to shore up its support ahead of the 2000 parliamentary election.
Thus only a few months after the land conference, war veterans and Zanu PF supporters began to invade white-owned farms. President Mugabe refused to stop the farm occupations and his implicit - later open - support was clearly a breach of the understanding with the donor community. The donors subsequently suspended all cooperation with government in the land reform.
In 2000 World Bank counsel John W Bruce wrote: "The future of the land reform is now very much in question. The reform cannot move forward in a productive fashion without the donor funding needed to cover major resettlement costs, including costs for both productive investments and services. The economic situation of the country is desperate, with inflation moving out of control."
Numerous attempts by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to broker an understanding between the government and donors have come to nought as Mugabe said Zimbabwe would go it alone. But the chickens were always bound to come home to roost. The current agrarian exercise has all the ingredients of failure to achieve intended targets as long as there is no international support.
In a stark indictment of Mugabe's current agrarian plan, United Nations secretary-general Kofi Annan last month reiterated the need for international support to the resettlement programme.
"There can be no lasting solution to the current problems unless the government of Zimbabwe implements a phased and fully-funded land reform programme. It should be one that is run according to the rule of law, that allows for proper training and adequate support to new small farmers and compensation to displaced farm workers and commercial farmers," Annan said in a statement.He said such a programme was "urgently needed in order to minimise the negative effects of the current situation on food production and the overall economy in Zimbabwe".
"It would also ensure the engagement and future support of the international community," he said.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in side meetings at the Earth Summit, said his government was prepared to avail funds for the agrarian plan as long as the money was channelled through the UNDP. Zimbabwe had to go back to the 1998 undertakings of the donors' conference and the Abuja Agreement of September 2001.
Under the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act, the United States pledged to avail US$20 million for the resettlement programme and payment for land to be resettled. This is, however, on condition the country returns to the rule of law.
Opposition MDC secretary for lands Tendai Biti said any international monetary support for the current land reform programme was out.
"The issue of giving money to Zimbabwe underthe present governmentis a non-starter," said Biti."Mugabe cannot be trust-ed. In September last year, the world was celebrating the Abuja Agreement and we said the world should never trust these guys.
"Twelve months down the line, our protestations have been vindicated. Any reincarnation of the Abuja Agreement or in other form is headed for dismal failure," he said.
Western diplomats, sp-eaking on condition ofanonymity, said the op-portunity for their res-pective governments tofund the resettlement programme was irretri-evably lost as the Zimbabwean government was not prepared to disband the current exercise.
"Mugabe believes that Western donors have a soft spot for white farmers," said a diplomat.
"He sees this as slowing the momentum of his revolution if he co-operates with donors in implementing the plan."
But myriad problems lie in the way of Mugabe's resettlement programme. Zimbabwe requires $78 billion to finance this year's crop and banks are generally reluctant to make available the required funds. This comes at the same time as another huge undertaking the government has to fulfill - food, fuel and power imports for the nation. Government has struggled over the last nine months to secure adequate food and, with the little resources at its disposal, it has to strike a delicate balance between importing food and funding the agrarian revolution.
The UNDP has refocused itself from brokering for resources for the resettlement programme to seeking humanitarian assistance for Zimbabwe.
The government last month concluded it had successfully completed the land reform exercise but its self-serving definition of success will not immediately translate to putting food on the table and rebuilding the heavily-depleted grain reserves.
There is the spectre of another drought looming and this requires planning to expand the existing irrigable land. Despite the construction of numerous large and medium-sized dams throughout the country, these have not been fully utilised to irrigate crops due to the absence of infrastructure for use by farmers. Even now when the country might experience a rainfall deficit, there is still no such infrastructure in place and it is not practicable to put it in place before the rains. Worse still, existing irrigation facilities have been vandalised and pillaged by gangs taking advantage of the eviction of farmers.
Experts say at least $5 billion is required to put up basic infrastructure like roads, clinics, schools, boreholes, Blair toilets and dip tanks in resettled areas. Multi-lateral donor agencies were instrumental in setting up such infrastructure and their support is required to do the same in resettled areas.
Even in a good rain season, there is no guarantee that resettlement would result in bigger yields. Studies have shown that farmers resettled during the first phase of the programme before 1998 are still producing at almost the same levels as their counterparts in the communal areas. Thousands of extension workers who have been employed by the Department of Agricultural Research and Extension Services (Arex) have not been fully-utilised as farmers, especially in the A2 scheme, have not taken up their plots.
Seed and fertiliser inputs have to be delivered to the new farmer on time to take advantage of the early rains. But as of now, the government is yet to raise money for that. Government is still to reach an agreement with seed companies and manufacturers on a new price regime. There was chaos in communal and resettled areas last year when fertiliser was delivered before seeds which were only made available as the rains tailed off in January this year. Such mayhem and organisational deficiency cannot be ruled out this year as distribution of inputs is already late.
Horticultural producers say major markets for fresh produce have been lost and Zimbabwe has to labour to regain its market share in face of stiff competition especially from South Africa.
Analysts say Mugabe can demonstrate to the West that he does not need their money by coming up with an agrarian programme that is orderly, sustainable and which guaranteed food security. That is not the case at the moment as Zimbabwe's food crisis has made Mugabe even more dependent on the West.
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