Johannesburg — AFRICA'S future within the context of the US-Iraq confrontation hinges on more than west Africa as an alternative to US dependency on Middle Eastern petroleum.

What lies ahead in the medium to long term may be gleaned from exploring the sustainability of US unilateralism, as expressed in the George Bush-Tony Blair bid to topple Saddam Hussein.

Although the US media indoctrination machine suggests a war against Iraq is affordable, according to Newsweek economic guru Robert J Samuelson, there is an alternative argument emerging on the US left.

It is suggested that at some point in the future, Washington's foreign policy could trigger a backlash that pulls the plug on the "indispensable superpower", much as the US pulled the plug on Britain's imperium when it colluded with France and Israel in their 1956 Sinai invasion.

Such a fate befalling the US may seem far-fetched, given the extent and nature of US power. Yet, whether we're dealing with a liberal internationalist regime à la Clinton or a very conservative one as in Bush Two, there is a ruthless strain of strategic pragmatism that keeps all options open while seeking to expand them, to bolster US staying power atop the global pecking order.

This introduces the prospect of an eroding US position being reinforced by an expanding economic sphere of influence in Africa and Latin America.

Beside concerns that, with a new $145bn budget deficit, any new major spending by the US federal government such as a 200bn war is likely to have long-lasting negative effects on the US economy, William Greider, writing in The Nation, argues the US's financial position has been rapidly deteriorating because of a persistent and growing trade deficit. It could reach $3,5-trillion in three years.

Though none of the US's creditors both private investors and governments from Europe and Asia feel a need to disrupt their lopsided relations with the US economy, history suggests that with enough provocation, they could begin exerting leverage, however reluctantly. This could happen either because US debt becomes too burdensome or because they want to head off reckless new adventures.

While eschewing a reformulation of global governance with a recovered post-war Europe and Japan, successive bids by US administrations to redress trade deficits by more trade accords have only yielded bigger gaps between imports and exports.

Apart from the fact that any reformulating of global governance will now have to include countries such as SA, India and Brazil, the US faces competition from the European Union (EU) for market share in southern Africa, while seeking to accelerate expansion of its North American Free Trade Area into a Free Trade Area of the Americas.

Just as the EU made a trade accord with SA now it seeks a south-south trade accord with Latin American trade bloc Mercosur the US aims to parley the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) into a free trade area with SA and the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu).

While reshuffling the global oil market by the overthrow of Hussein, forging a short-term oil deal with Russia and cultivating west African oil exploration and production, a south Atlantic US geoeconomic strategy in Latin America and southern Africa may be crucial for offsetting the evergrowing trade deficits of the US with Europe and Asia.

Brazil has long been wary of a free trade area of the Americas, relying on Mercosur for a bloc-tobloc approach, in bargaining from a position of strength with the Yankee colossus. However, Brazil has become isolated by US trade manoeuvres with Chile and the Andean countries (excluding Venezuela).

Although SA has become less sensitive to global conditions than many other emerging markets by reducing its dependence on commodity exports a free trade area between Sacu and the US would give US exporters unparalleled access to southern African markets because of reciprocity not needed under Agoa.

Also, Latin American economists are stressing the need for Mercosur countries to stop unilateral talks on global trade and economic issues, and begin acting as a bloc.

Pretoria, which does act in concert with other Sacu nations, might want to introduce another dimension: interregional co- ordination between Sacu and Mercosur in navigating the free trade onslaught of the US.

Kornegay is Programme Co- ordinator, Centre for Africa's International Relations, University of the Witwatersrand.

Free trade area between Sacu and US would give US exporters unparalleled access to (regional) markets