Kampala — It's been a long time since November 25, 2002 when Col. Kizza Besigye issues his "dossier" on what he thinks are the conditions that have made conflict likely in Uganda. (The previous articles, Is Uganda Ripe For War? Part I, II and III have been published in The Monitor in recent days. In this last instalment, Besigye, a former exiled former presidential candidate, takes the case for change in Uganda through a history of revolutionary struggles around the world. His last word is that since Yoweri Museveni is not a Life President, he shall have to go: -

All the major and "successful" democracies of the world today witnessed cycles of violent conflicts along their courses of political development to the current enviable dispositions.

The Greeks had attained a high level of political and cultural development during the period of 500-336 BC (the Classical Period), in which the democratic system of government had greatly developed through the peoples' struggles, including the notable contribution of Athenian statesman Pericles. This was hijacked and eventually completely dismantled, and it took the Greeks many centuries and wars to eventually reassert themselves and the values they cherished.

The Greek wars included those of Alexander the Great in building the Macedonian Empire, the struggles of the Polis and Hellenic era, the Roman and Byzentine Empires, a myriad against the Turks for their independence from the Ottoman Empire until 1829 (including the REFORM struggles of 1864-1909 and the Balkan wars of 1912-13). There was the "terrible decade" of occupation and civil war 1940-1950, the military junta after "accession of the Colonels" 1967-1974. It was not until 1974 that Greece held democratic elections and became a Parliamentary Republic which is now an integral member of the European Union.

The British struggles are as old and many as their long recorded history of established government. The effective and organised struggles for people's power are clear from the Civil War of 1264 led by Simon de Montfort (killed in battle, 1265), whose momentum resulted in the formation of the House of Commons in 1341. The other significant wars that affected the power structure were the Bishops' Wars 1639-40; the Irish Rebellion of 1641; the Civil Wars (between King Charles I and Parliament) 1642-51 which culminated in "Pride's Purge", the decapitation of King Charles I, the British Republic (1949-60) and the establishment of Oliver Cromwell's Commonwealth. There was also English Revolution of 1688-9 which resulted in the Declaration and Bill of Rights, and establishment of the authority of Parliament over the King. Wars within the U.K. subsided subsequently, but the British were very busy fighting wars to retain or expand their Imperial and Colonial territories throughout the world, the latest being the Falklands War of 1982- the Falklands Islands having been occupied by the British in 1833.

The history of the United States of America since the first successful colonisation mission (Jamestown 1607) is dominated mainly by wars between the indigenous Indian communities and the immigrant Europeans. These include the Indian uprising in Virginia 1622, the Pequot War over the Connecticut River region 1637, and the Bacon's Rebellion in Virginia 1675. Then there was the British-French war for dominance 1756-63, followed by the well-known American Revolution of 1775 which delivered much of today's American political arrangements.

The French have been very active in wars since their ancient history (e.g. the Gallic Wars), but looking at the closer past, there is the Hundred Years War of 1337-1443 resisting the English take-over of their throne, which was won by Charles III with help of peasant girl Joan of Arc. There were the Italian Wars of 1494-1559, with France and Austria fighting over the Italian territories; the Religious Wars of 1562-98, in which there was the massacre of the Protestants in Paris 1572; the "King Louis XIV Endless Wars" which set the stage for the French Revolution; the French Revolution of 1789-99 that resulted in French people winning Freedom, Equality and Civil Liberties- the first such peoples' victory in European history; the Napoleonic Wars of 1803-15; the World War I which begun in North Eastern France 1914; the World War II, and numerous other wars in the French colonies like Indochina and Algeria.

The same history will be found in all the other democracies of Europe and the Nordic countries. Turkey, which is the only overwhelmingly Islamic nation in Europe, has a long history of struggle especially during the Ottoman Empire. The activities of the Young Turks organisation CUP of which Mustapha Kemal (the acclaimed Father of the modern Turkish nation) was a member, eventually laid the ground for the thriving Turkish democracy today.

In India, there were many wars before the pre-independence civil disobedience campaigns. These included the four Mysore Wars of 1767-9, 1980-4, 1790-2, and 1799; the three Anglo-Maratha Wars of 1775-82, 1803-5, and 1817-9; the Anglo-Gurkha War of 1814-6; the Pindari War of 1817-8; the Gwolior War of 1843; the two Anglo-Sikh Wars of 1845-6, and 1848-9; and the War of Indian independence of 1857.

Recent Nicaraguan history (characterised by instability and repression) offers very relevant experience of a freedom-fighting organisation making a transition to democratic rule. The Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSNL) overthrew the brutal dictatorship of Anastasio Somoza Debayle which was heavily supported by the US during the cold war. A governing coalition dominated by the FSNL (Sandinista) assumed power in 1979. Daniel Ortega leader of the FSLN was eventually elected President in 1984. The US intensified its policy of destabilisation through support of the Contras rebels, including through the Iran-Contra scandal.

The Sandinista opened peace-talks with the Contras in 1988. Violeta Barios Chomorro of the United Opposition Union (UNO) defeated Ortega in the presidential elections of 1990. Sandinista then signed a permanent cease-fire agreement with the Contras, and the Contras begun to demobilise. Humberto Ortega, brother to Daniel Ortega continued as chief of the Army until he was (under pressure) replaced by Joaquin Lacayo in 1995. In the 1997 presidential elections, Arnoldo Aleman was elected with about 49% of the vote compared with Daniel Ortega's 39%, and again there was a peaceful transfer of power-the very first time in Nicaraguan history since the Spanish settlers arrived in 1509.

I have deliberately made this long narrative to highlight some issues considered central to the perennial turmoil in Uganda; the understanding of which is important in appreciating the steps which are necessary towards sustainable peace, stability, democracy and development.

Let me end by restating the following for emphasis:

* War has disastrous effects on society, and everything possible should be done to avoid it.

When conditions for war exist in a magnitude that surpasses a community's tolerance threshold, war (or violent conflict) will ensue.

* A regime holding state power is the one which can diffuse the conditions for war (once they exist) and avert it.

* War can only positively serve as a tool to facilitate a political struggle, but cannot replace it nor achieve the political objectives by itself.

* War can result in sustainable peace, stability, democracy and development.

* The detrimental behaviour of the Ugandan "elite" needs to be checked by focussing on, developing, and applying appropriate systems and institutions for both the public and private sectors. They have so far used blatant manipulation, fraud, and coercion to establish correspondingly illegitimate systems and institutions.

Whether there is war or not, there will be no sustainable peace, stability, democracy and development unless there are constitutional, legal and administrative reforms that empower people to be their own masters, including:

* Enjoyment of all fundamental rights and freedoms that include freedom of speech, expression, media, assembly and demonstration, association and political organisation.

* Increasing public awareness through civic education.

* Strengthening civil society organisations, including political organisations.

* Building strong and credible state institutions, like the Electoral Commission, Parliament, Judiciary, and Executive, with emphasis on the Security, Police and Military institutions.

* Mechanisms that ensure equity and equality especially in work and market opportunities, and before the law.

Until Ugandans get into a situation where their leaders are freely chosen by, and fully accountable to them; and where the leaders cannot declare that: they are Emperors, Life Presidents, "Entebbe ewooma", "tetulina gye tugenda", all in an attempt to become absolute and perpetual rulers, the struggle continues.

We all know where the path taken by such leaders goes. Bajja kugenda!