Harare — Preliminary 2002 census results published yesterday confirm an earlier estimate that Zimbabwe now has a population of 11,6 million compared with 10,4 million in 1992.

The reduction in the growth rate to a little over 1,5 percent in the past decade is still being studied. But analysts have suggested three main reasons: a lower birth rate, a much higher death rate, especially among people in their twenties and thirties, from Aids, and several hundred thousand Zimbabweans working outside the country.

Only when the full census results are available, with the age distribution, and are compared to the results of the 1992 census, can the weight that can be given to each factor be estimated.

Presenting the 2002 official preliminary census results, Central Statistical Office director Mr Lazurus Machirovi said Zimbabwe now has a population of 11 634 663 compared with 7,6 million in 1982 and 10,4 million in 1992.

Out of the 11,6 million, 6 million are females and 5,6 million are male.

In 1992, there were 5,1 million males and 5,3 million females. By then males represented 49 percent of the total population while females represented 51 percent.

Harare has the highest figure of 1,9 million people followed by Manicaland with 1,56 million people and Midlands with 1,46 million people.

Harare's population shot up by 74 percent to 1,4 million in 1992 because of the rural to urban migrations.

"The census is a gigantic exercise which required patience and co-operation," Mr Machirovi said. "These are provisional results based on manual calculations. A detailed analysis will be done. This is just to help planners to have something to work on."

He said an operations report will be released in 2004, a population atlas in 2005 and a comprehensive national report is expected out by the end of 2004.

Provincial profiles will be released this year and in the coming year.

The preliminary census results also indicate that the annual average intercensal growth rate for the period 1992-2002 is 1,1 percent, average size of households 4,4 and the population density is now 29,77 per square kilometre.

The 1982-1992 annual average intercensal growth rate was 3,1 percent, average size of households 4,76 and the population density was pegged at 26,5 persons per square km.

A detailed analysis of the birth rate, death rate, breakdown of population according to age, race, living standards and other social indicators would be released to the public by the end of 2004.

A total of 25 000 enumerators and other experts were involved in the 2002 census which was conducted between August 17 and 27.

The Government funded the whole exercise, which began in 1999 and is expected to end in 2005, to the tune of $1,6 billion.

"There is no estimate in this figure (11,6 million)," said Mr Machirovi. "It is based on the total number of people who were actually counted - be it street people, people in resettled areas and so on."

He said Zimbabwe was far ahead of other countries, which would release preliminary figures after five or more years.

In Zimbabwe, preliminary results are released six months after a census is held and a final report usually takes up to two years before it is out.

"It's quite fast given the technological stage we are at," said Mr Washington Mupeta, the census manager.

Zimbabwe's first census was held in 1982 and the second in 1992.

There was a rapid population growth in 1969 and 1982 up to 1992, when the population shot up from 4,6 million to 10,4 million.

Population growth showed signs of slowing down between 1992 and 2002 as the Aids pandemic and other socio-economic factors began to affect the country's demographic patterns.

Deaths are prevalent among men in the 25-39 age group and the 15-19 age group among the females account for 85 percent of all cases recorded, according to a 1997 official health report.

Aids is claiming the lives of more than 2 000 people every week as the pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the population.