WITH the conclusion of the presidential primaries of the two major political parties - the PDP and ANPP, and with the emergence of General Olusegun Obasanjo and General Muhammedu Buhari, the campaign now shifts beyond their party delegates to the states and thus to a larger Nigeria audience. The fate of the two candidates, will now depend on their message and the structure of mobilisation, they have on ground. In the North West, for instance the battle is particularly going to be fierce. The stature of the two men and the tendencies they represent will make the electoral contest in this zone particularly divisive and difficult.
In 1999, the election in that zone, which has seven states, was close, but with the ANPP having a slight edge, the party controls Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara and Jigawa States, while the ruling PDP won three, - Kano, Katsina and Kaduna States.
...