Lusaka — WHATEVER the determination displayed by the Iraqis so far, this is a war between unequal forces - two nuclear powers and a disarmed Third World nation.

And at this stage the Iraqi leadership should avoid exhibiting excessive optimism which may end up confusing their troops, the Iraqi people and lead to demoralisation and reduced defensive potential.

There's no question that the United States blitzkrieg failed to take control of Iraq and to destroy its army. It is clear that United States got bogged down in Iraq and the military campaign hit a snag. However, the Iraq leadership is now in danger of underestimating the United States and British forces. For now there's no reason to question their resolve and determination to reach the set goal - complete occupation of Iraq. The losses they have sustained during the past 14 days of fighting, although delivering a painful blow to their pride and striking the public opinion, are insignificant in military terms. The initiative in this war remains firmly in the hands of the invading forces.

Things may only turn in favour of the Iraqis if this war goes over 90 days and inflicts over a thousand deaths on the United States and British forces. At that point then it is likely that a serious political crisis may arise in the United States and Britain and in the world.

But whatever the outcome of this invasion, the world will never be the same. We are bound to see an accelerated arms race in some Third World countries like China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Libya, among others, and among some developed countries like France, Germany and Belgium. No nation - especially some 60 countries or so in some dark corner of the world referred to by United States President George W. Bush - that feels for its sovereignty, independence and dignity can feel safe in this order being imposed on the world by the United States.

They have no alternative. It would be absurd, crazy and suicidal at a moment such as this if they were to make the mistake of failing to look into their defences. Therefore, the strengthening of their defences will be one of the programs with top priority in the coming periods and one of the sacrifices that they simply must make. They cannot commit irresponsible acts that the present and future generations will hold against them.

There is a real danger, a greater one than ever before, because the United States feels that it owns the world and is filled with triumphant crowing and a blind, mystical, fanatical faith in its strength, its might, its sophisticated weapons and its ability to impose its will on any nation.

It is unlikely that the United States will resign itself to and forgive defiant nations like Iran, North Korea, Libya and Cuba, among others. It must be very irritating to it that these Third World countries are demonstrating their courage to struggle and ability to stand firm.

They will only stop to arm themselves and prepare for war if changes take place in the thinking of the United States leaders, and we are not at all sure that this will happen in the near future.

By saying this, we don't mean that we are fatalists or that we think wars with the United States are inevitable for these countries. Many United States citizens are beginning to question the reasons for their country's policy of hostility toward many countries, of trying to impose its will on others! Many United States citizens are beginning to ask these questions, because there is no reason other than an arrogant, insane obsession. Many people are beginning to think this way in the United States, though this doesn't mean that they have any great power or decisive influence.

This is an absurd, inglorious policy for the United States. As it is implemented, it will reflect well on some of these countries they have classified as an axis of evil and their prestige, because, as hostility increases, growing numbers of people in the world will denounce that policy, and the Third World peoples and others all over the world will express more and more solidarity with these countries.

United States policy-makers should come to the conclusion that this is an inglorious policy that offers them nothing. What do they want to do with all these countries? Create utter chaos and wars that will last dozens of years? Where does the United States' policy lead? Patriots in these countries are never going to surrender but will keep on fighting. No true patriot - and there are hundreds of thousands, millions of them - are going to give up what they have, and one can't crush the determination of millions of people who are ready to fight in any field, under any circumstances. Therefore, the United States' policy doesn't lead anywhere, and, the more it does to hurt others, the greater the prestige of the countries they have condemned will be.

They should change that policy someday. Naturally, we can't expect them to do this immediately - especially in a country where demagogy, political scheming and electoral ambitions generally determine what the politicians do. We'll have to wait, who knows how long for them to change their policy which, we think, would be the smartest thing they could do.