Mallam El-Haroun Mohammed, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs and lecturer in international relations programme in the department of social sciences, Kaduna Polytechnic discussed the actual motives for the invasion of Iraq and the consequences of the possible fall of Baghdad on the entire region.

Weekly Trust: It is now about a month since the start of the US-led invasion of Iraq. Do you think Baghdad will fall to the coalition forces?

El-Haroun: Yes. There are possibilities Iraq will fall to the American - British invaders, now or later. But the coalition will not have what it wants. With the level of military aggression on Iraq, certainly at a point, they will be conquered. But the level of peace and stability the US requires to plunder the Iraqi oil and install a client regime will not be there.

First, the so-called Iraqi dissidents - the Kurds and the Shiites have clearly rejected the move by America to install a foreigner as head of a new government in Iraq. Secondly, Iraqi neighbours, the Arab states have already started viewing the situation as a second Israeli occupation.

They will not take lightly to foreigners controlling any area in the region. And already, over 4,000 volunteers on suicide mission were said to have crossed into Iraq. These are guerrilla operators and guerrilla operations in military strategy are largely conducted during no-war situations. These are enough destabilisers and killers of British/Americans as well as their Iraqi accomplices. Fourthly, the Al-Qaeda network is likely to take advantage of the unpopularity of the American control in the region and further its onslaught not only in Iraqi but throughout the entire region.

Looking at the scenario strategically, one is tempted to see the whole region in crisis during the post Gulf War II developments as they are linked up to the overall American interest. The US is interested in the absolute and limitless control of Iraqi and the whole oil in the region. There is the desire for the preservation and guarantee of Israeli security and expansion in the region. The way to achieve this is for the US after subduing Iraq and installing a so-called democratic government to blow the wind of democratisation in the whole region by organising and financing dissentions until it gains control of the oil wealth in the region.

But the backfire effect here is the potency on the other side for the Arabs to realise their duty to the region and their safety. This could incite the Arab world to now begin to rally behind Islam as an ideology for war as it extols martyrdom, an ideology that thrives on sacrifice of the highest form.

This framework will become sharper if the North Korean nuclear drive programme is viewed in the context of Iraqi de-weaponisation and war. North Korea has defiantly continued to announce its nuclear build-up to the world and the U.S. is nowhere to fight it. So the question that could be lingering among the Arab nations is whether the American-British assault on Baghdad is because Iraq is Arab and Muslim.

WT: But the coalition says its only objective is Iraq. Are there possibilities of the US trying to extend its might beyond Iraq after this war?

El-Haroun: Certainly. Because the difference of American/British world view vis-à-vis the Middle East, as well as other non-white, non-European societies has become glaring. Though the non-compliant position of Western countries like France, Germany and others have added weight to the moral scale of world politics, the fact that they do not participate in war does not mean that they will turn down offers to partake in the eventual loot.

So in the long run, there are possibilities of the whole Western society teaming up again for the same interest, particularly when the war extends to other centres of the region, which is likely.

The September 11 attacks are very decisive in whatever step America and the west will take now in their relations with the Muslim world. Information is reaching out that the US has a plan to break Saudi Arabia into three countries. And that it is already in touch with the ruling family of Jordan to resume their ancestral control of the Arabian Peninsula and the entire 'Hijaz' prior to its fragmentation after the Second World War and the eventful collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1924. So with the gravity of Islamic cultural assertiveness across the Middle East and the Al-Qaeda monster that is being promoted on a minute basis by the US, there is every indication of plans to redraw the geographical, cultural and political boundaries of the Middle East.

The US has chastised the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on the role of fifteen of its nationals in the September 11 operations. The US insists that Saudi Arabia must review its school curriculum to reflect Western values and interests against the dominant values and interests that Arabia softens its "hard core commitment" to Islamic cultural values.

And from the start of the war, the US has accused Syria of providing a gateway for arms and volunteer forces into Iraq. And since the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, the US has variously referred to Iran as 'evil,' 'rogue' and 'terrorist.' In faraway central Asia, Afghanistan is already in disarray. The oil sought by America from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Knugystan after toppling the Taliban government is no longer feasible. There is no peace and stability there necessary for such exploitation. Therefore, the war on Iraq became necessary in order to rescue the collapsing US economy.

So in its desperate drive for domination and control, the US will want to move to other countries after Iraq. But the cultural parallelism in the region could provide a military and political structure for a full global explosion.