Johannesburg — heads, who have given it the green light. The report is to be tabled at a meeting of the MECs for health and Health Minister Manto TshabalalaMsimang this week.

The meeting can refer the report back to the task team for further clarification, but is expected to refer it to the cabinet. It is understood the draft report presents a variety of scenarios, based on various projections of the number of people who are anticipated to take up provision of the drugs, different treatment regimens, and possible drug prices.

According to the Actuarial Society of SA, last year an estimated 13% of SA's population was infected with HIV, and 500000 people were in the advanced stage of the disease, which would make them eligible for antiretroviral treatment.

A key factor that is likely to determine the success or failure of introducing a large-scale antiretroviral programme will be government's success in reducing the price of the medicines. A study published by the Centre for Social Science Research at the University of Cape Town earlier this year estimated that the cost of patent-protected antiretroviral medicines would be about R9000 per person a year. Additional costs such as personnel and monitoring would add a further R1500.

If government gives antiretroviral drugs the go-ahead, it is expected to make a concerted effort to ramp up local production of generic copies of the patented AIDS drugs in order to drive down the unit cost of treatment.

A large number of AIDS drugs, including generics, are awaiting registration by the Medicines Control Council.