Nairobi — Anxiety is building in Rwanda as a referendum on a new constitution and presidential elections get closer. The referendum, slated for late this month, will pave way for presidential elections in July. Charles Bigirimana, gives insight into a complex political landscape that extends beyond the borders of Rwanda, and which is feared may complicate elections.

Three candidates have already announced their interest in the July presidential elections. They include current President, Paul Kagame, who will be standing on the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) ticket, a former prime minister living in exile in Brussels, Faustin Twagiramungu, and a former leader of Social Democratic Party (SDP), Nepomucene Nayinzira, also in exile in Europe.

Twagiramungu became the first prime minister of post-genocide government, dominated by RPF, before fleeing to Europe, claiming the party was undemocratic and deprived Rwandans of freedom of association.

He, however, recently announced that he would return home to join the presidential race on Republican Democratic Movement (MDR) ticket, on condition that his "security is guaranteed".

Twagiramungu's father-in-law, former President Kayibanda, has been accused by the RPF of organising massacres of Tutsis in the 60s and early 70s, before he was overthrown by the late Juvenal Habyarimana, whose death in 1994 in a plane crash, marked the beginning of the genocide that year.

Members of Parliament (MPs) recently called for a ban on MDR, after a parliamentary report accused its leaders, including current Prime Minister Bernard Makuza, of dividing Rwandans on tribal lines.

Some MPs said MDR had not shed off its bad policies of the 1960s, despite changing its name from Parmehutu, and that it still pursued sectarian policies, which promoted racial discrimination.

The report further accused Makuza, of using government money to fund a local non-governmental organisation (NGO) called Itara (lamp), which media reports also said was campaigning for MDR. Makuza denied, saying Itara was a development NGO like any other. Nevertheless, he agreed that the party be banned.

The government also fears that the country may experience another cycle of killings like in 1994, when close to a million people, mostly from the Tutsi ethnic group, were massacred.

The grassroots elections conducted in 2001, were termed by Europe-based Rwandan Republican Rally (RDR) as RPF's efforts to legitimise its rule, since individuals rather than parties were allowed to compete in the elections. Those opposed to the Kigali government poured water on the whole electoral process, claiming it had been rigged from the start, especially at the cell level, where voting was done through queue system.

"This complex electoral process is designed in reality to ensure that those elected at all levels are RPF members or sympathisers, servants of the RPF-led government and not servants of the people. It is intended to give an appearance of legitimacy to the RPF-led dictatorial regime, while leaving intact the RPF's monopoly of power on the Rwandese state institutions," an RDR statement said.

Early this year, President Kagame, released thousands of inmates accused of involvement in the 1994 genocide against Tutsis, to "decongest prisons". Analysts, however, say the president was campaigning for the forthcoming presidential elections.

The release of genocide suspects angered anti-genocide crusaders as well as international human rights organisations. They believed justice would not have been done to genocide victims since those who killed victims' relatives would be free to threaten them during Gacaca trials.

This, it is feared, might hide the truth.

Gacaca courts also known as traditional or village courts, were launched in June last year to try more than 100,000 people accused of genocide related crimes throughout the country.

The presidential elections will also take place against a background of increasing tension in the country, caused by disappearances, arrest and jailing of prominent politicians opposed to the current regime and, a deepening crisis between Rwanda and Uganda.

The government last year arrested former president, Pasteur Bizimungu, and his close ally, former public works minister, Charles Ntakarutinka, after accusing them of involvement in illegal activities aimed at dividing Rwandans on tribal basis.

A former Defence Minister, Colonel Emmanuel Habyarimana, his colleague, Lieutenant-Colonel Balthazar Ndengeyinka, who also represented the army in parliament, together with another army officer, Lieutenant Ndayambaje, recently fled to Uganda, further increasing tension between the two countries.

Rwanda suspected Uganda was planning to send the two officers to the DRC to shore up Rwandan rebels, an allegation the Ugandan government rejected. Another officer allied to Brigadier-General Habyarimana, Major Felicien Ngirabatware, is under arrest.

In its report, the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank, recommended among other things "the unconditional release of Pasteur Bizimungu, Charles Ntakiruntika, Jean Mbanda, Pierre Gakwandi and all other Rwandan political prisoners".

The group also called on the donor community to "refuse to finance the 2003 elections and the establishment of post-transitional institutions unless they are preceded by the liberalisation of political activities and a marked improvement in respect for basic freedoms of association and expression".

Rwanda also suspects Uganda is planning to attack it before or during the elections. The Rwandan government says Uganda has been recruiting and training forces with a view to invading its territory.

Uganda has strongly refuted the accusations saying that there were no Hutu militiamen under training on its territory. Tension has, however, decreased in recent days.

The two countries would have gone to war in the DRC had it not been for South Africa and Tanzania, which intervened to stop them from clashing in north-eastern part of DRC. Uganda had its troops already stationed in eastern DRC, and Rwandan troops were moving towards an area close to one controlled by Uganda.

Rwanda was infuriated by not only the presence of Ugandan troops in Ituri region in violation of an agreement that all foreign forces withdraw from the DRC, but also by the fact that Ugandan People's Defence Forces (UPDF) had expelled from Bunia, the Union of Congolese Patriots (UPC), a rebel group allied to the Rwandan-backed and Goma-based Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD-Goma).

The tension subsided only after Ugandan president announced that he would withdraw his troops from eastern by April 24. This followed a meeting with his counterparts of Rwanda, Tanzania and South Africa.

The two leaders last week had a meeting in London, in which they made attempts to iron out remaining pockets of tension between them.