Nairobi — TANZANIA IS adopting a wait-and-see attitude before deciding whether to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) that begins in the Nigerian capital of Abuja this Friday.

Some members of the 12-member regional body have reportedly indicated that they would skip the summit in solidarity with President Mugabe, following the announcement last week by summit host and CHOGM chair, Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo, that the Zimbabwean leader would not be invited to the meeting.

The Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, Jakaya Kikwete, told The EastAfrican: "We are studying the situation to see what other fellow member states decide. After that, we will be in a position to decide how to handle the matter."

Unconfirmed reports indicated that some member states had dispatched their ministers on special missions to other SADC countries to persuade them to boycott the CHOGM or send a low level delegations - vice presidents or prime ministers - as a sign of protest against the exclusion of President Mugabe.

In the event that Tanzania does decide to attend, it would be represented by Mr Kikwete, by virtue of his holding the foreign affairs portfolio, or Vice President Ali Mohamed Shein, who is holding brief for the president. Mr Mkapa is undergoing treatment in Switzerland.

A Dar-based SADC diplomat told The EastAfrican last week: "The December Commonwealth meeting might change the course of this grouping if the decision to exclude Mugabe remains."

But even as President Robert Mugabe warned on Friday that Zimbabwe could leave the Commonwealth if it was not treated as an equal, he failed to win the backing of a troika of Southern African countries meeting in South Africa.

A diplomatic source at the meeting said foreign ministers from Mozambique, South Africa and Lesotho who met in South Africa on Friday to discuss Zimbabwe's exclusion from the summit only called for "constructive engagement" between the government and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) of Morgan Tsvangirai.

"The bottom line is that Zimbabwe will not be going to Abuja. The troika endorses negotiations by the Zimbabwean government with the opposition and appropriate stakeholders," the source said.

Zimbabwean Foreign Minister Stan Mudenge told the meeting that talks with the opposition were underway, but this statement that has been repeatedly denied by the MDC.

Zimbabwe was suspended from the Commonwealth's decision-making councils following allegations of vote rigging and intimidation in last year's presidential election, whose outcome is being contested by the MDC.

But the polls were declared free and fair by African observers, including those from South Africa and Nigeria, whose leaders have resolutely stood by Mugabe even in the face of growing domestic and international criticism about the way he has handled land redistribution and his strong-arm response to growing internal dissent as the country sinks ever deeper into economic decline.

This latest "snub" from President Obasanjo is therefore seen by some observers as a position he was cornered into following the threat of a boycott by Queen Elizabeth and the leaders of Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and some Pacific nations.

Tanzania too has been a steadfast supporter of the Zimbabwean leader. At the SADC summit held in Dar es Salaam in August, President Benjamin Mkapa called for the lifting of the sanctions on Zimbabwe, saying: "The faster they are lifted, the faster more influence for positive growth and change can emerge."

He said SADC supported the land redistribution exercise being carried out by Zimbabwe, because Zimbabweans could not remain workers while their land continued to be owned by a handful of commercial white farmers.

Mr Mkapa told foreign aid partners that although they were greatly valued, "they should recognise and respect the independence and sovereignty of states in SADC."

Critics of the "land grab" in which scores of white farmers and hundreds of their black workers were killed say it was a populist move motivated by Mugabe's desperation to cling on to power and that it benefited the president and a clique of his cronies, while the landless poor remain dispossessed.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard insisted last week that Zimbabwe "must improve its human-rights record," before being readmitted to the Commonwealth summits.

He said one of the main items on the Abuja summit agenda will be to discuss what the 54-nation grouping of Britain and its former colonies can do about continuing reports of human rights abuses in Zimbabwe.