Nasreen Seria
20 February 2004
Johannesburg — THE local maize crop this year is estimated to be almost 30% lower than last year's, but this is not likely to have much effect on maize prices, which have already risen sharply in anticipation of a lower crop due to the country's poor weather.
The agriculture department's crop estimates committee yesterday released its first estimate for the maize crop, which it expects to be 6799-million tons compared to last year's bumper crop of 9391-million tons.
Farmers have planted only 2635-million hectares of land this year for maize, which is the lowest area planted since 1943, according to the committee.
The white maize crop is expected to be 4167-million tons, 34,5% lower than last year's crop, while the yellow maize crop is forecast to be 2632-million tons, 13% lower than last year.
"The main reason for the decline in maize plantings is the below normal rainfall for much of the season and low soil moisture at the start of the season in SA's maize belt," the committee said in a statement yesterday.
"The relatively low maize price during 2003 also resulted in producers planting substantially less maize," said the committee.
Maize prices on the SA Futures Exchange (Safex) have soared since December as a result of the drought with white maize prices rising to R1312 a ton yesterday from R927 at the beginning of December.
Jannie de Villiers, the executive director of the national chamber of milling, said the estimates were not likely to push prices higher as they were in line with market expectations.
He said the committee's estimates tended to be "conservative", and he was expecting the maize crop to be slightly more than 7-million tons this year.
Weather conditions will drive the price in the next few months, and millers have used different hedging strategies, based on their outlook for rain, he said.
De Villiers said the retail price of maize meal did not currently reflect the hike in Safex prices.
"There is still some room for upward pressure. There are some price changes to come, but will probably be less than 10%."
Be the first to Write a Comment!
Copyright © 2004 Business Day. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). To contact the copyright holder directly for corrections — or for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material, click here.
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
