Mobile subscriber numbers in Africa have increased by over 1000% between 1998 and 2003 to reach 51.8 million. Mobile user numbers have long passed those of fixed line, which stood at 25.1 million at the end of 2003 according to a report from the ITU.

"Mobile technology is the Information Society in Africa", explains Michael Minges, Head of ITU quotes Market, Economics and Finance Unit and lead author of the African Telecommunications Indicators 2004 report. "It is a technology that has permeated more widely than any other into new areas, and we must examine how we can utilize this technology going forward, to help narrow the digital divide."

Mobile telephony has been critical in boosting access to telecommunications in Africa and has helped substantially lift numbers of telecommunications users. Mobile penetration had reached 6.2% at the end of 2003, in contrast to 3% for fixed line. The rise of mobile usage has been driven by a combination of factors: demand, sector reform, the licensing of new competition and the emergence of major strategic investors, such as Vodacom, MTN, Orascom and Celtel.

With the region quote s limited, fixed line penetration effectively curtailing Internet access via more traditional access methods, mobile technology now has the power to drive the uptake of Internet. So-called 2nd generation services such as WAP or SMS are gaining ground, with South Africa topping the monthly SMS league table with 17 messages per month, putting it firmly ahead of the global average of 4. Innovative regional specific applications have also helped drive SMS and WAP usage emdash mobile banking in Nigeria for example, or providing election results in Kenya. Interest in these applications indicates a broader level of demand for data services. 2.5 generation emdash GPRS have now been launched in 3 of the region quote s markets with a number of other networks on the continent now GPRS ready. With the capacity to provide higher speed Internet access, GPRS could provide a solution to problem of a lack of Internet access.

The issue of interconnection has been a bone of contention in almost every African country, with incumbents often dragging their feet over the signing of interconnection agreements, making the launch of competing mobile services difficult. To resolve these disputes, regulators are increasingly opting for clearer, more analytical frameworks to calculate rates.

It is not just regulators who have a role to play in helping to sustain mobile market growth. All of the parties with a stake in Africa quote s mobile future have a role to play. Manufacturers, for example need to devise solutions appropriate to lower income regions. And operators need to strive to find innovative solutions to keep end user costs down such as by leveraging incoming roaming to generate higher revenues and thus keep national call costs down. Donors also have a key role to play, for example through providing the resources for capacity building, or implementing programmes such as recycling used mobile handsets from developed nations to Africa.

Extending availability of telephony services in Africa is vital. Although mobile has already gone a long way in boosting access to telecommunications, mobile operators can further extend their services into universal access markets, such as by installing community payphones, or subsidizing low income services. More innovative ways of providing access to mobile services need to be devised, however, to ensure that services continue to expand.

How does such impressive growth in mobile services bode for fixed line? Can fixed line continue to grow or are its future growth prospects effectively capped by the dominance of mobile? The ability to prepay for calls, in a continent where cash upfront is often the preferred means of payment, has been one of the factors behind mobile quote s success. Could the same approach be used for fixed line?

Given that fixed line penetration is so low however, prepaid fixed line is unlikely to take off on so wide a scale. Generally, fixed line is constrained by traditional copper wire infrastructure which is inappropriate for deployment in large areas of Africa. Opting for a wireless infrastructure is likely to be the saving of the fixed line. Fixed wireless networks offer numerous advantages over traditional infrastructure in terms of cost and mobility. They also have the added attraction of being able to offer high-speed broadband Internet access emdash something which is currently in scarce supply in Africa.

In a region encompassing some of the world quote s lowest per-capita incomes, the cost of services is a pivotal issue for their successful future uptake. Unless prices decline further, then would-be subscribers will be unable to afford mobile. Yet operators still need to be able to extract revenue in order to make operations viable.

Mobile faces the challenge of how to sustain its growth in the face of constraints on affordability. Short-term growth will hinge on potential users being able to afford the services which operators are offering. If new subscribers can be reached quickly, then operators will see a faster return on investment. Already, equipment manufacturers have announced platforms which can be profitable at an ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) of US$ 5, while operators are issuing prepaid cards with a value of just over US$1. Crucially, demand for the services is there. The challenge is to successfully meet this demand. Based on different growth scenarios for the mobile market in 2010, the African mobile penetration is expected to reach between 10% to a possible 20%, from 6% in 2003.