Lagos — Silvio Berlusconi occupies a prominent area of cynicism in almost every Italian mind. Every move he makes is held in suspicion. The move he does not make elicits suspicion no less. The man is smart, for sure, but Italians believe often that in going after whatever he wants, Berlusconi muscles his way through and gets few laws bent, if necessary. Whatever Berlusconi wants, Berlusconi often gets.Somehow.You probably do not get to where Silvio Berlusconi is, in Italy or for that matter, in any society at all without playing it rough too. At least some times.

There is ample ground for those who admire the savvy 68 year old tycoon and politician. He is an entrepreneur personified. His media empire cuts across the electronic and print spectrums. He owns one of the biggest and most accomplished football clubs in Europe, nay the world, the famous AC Milan. He owns interests also in other vital sectors of the Italian and European economy. For good measures, Berlusconi is also Italy's prime minister. He is still held in suspicion and cynicism no less. But he still gets what ever he wants in Italy all the same.

Basic intelligence and gut aside, Silvio Berlusconi's ability to get whatever he wants in Italy or to get away with anything and everything has much to do essentially with his perfect understanding of the character of his society and then his being ever ready to maximally exploit that very setting to his advantage. Italians who are cynical about Berlusconi and his ways are entitled to their emotions and personal views. The truth which Berlusconi knows so well however, is that when ever he needs even public endorsement to get through to his goal, there will be enough Italians to get him through. Among those who ordinarily may not be inclined to approve him in various instances, the man knows and plays on their weak ends. In the final analysis, he gets what he wants. The cynics remain cynical. And life goes on.

Ibrahim Babangida may yet evolve into the Silvio Berlusconi of the Nigerian society, in more ways than one. Of course, there are many points of divergence in the background of the two figures. But there are common areas between them too. For one, suspicion and cynicism trail their every move. Then passion is evenly divided towards them. Berlusconi has justified himself in politics and because he plays within a democratic setting, he can arguably dismiss cynicisms about him. After all, people (the majority) elected him to office. What more, in the quintessential banana peel ground of Italian politics, to borrow the apt phrase by Chuba Okadigbo in a different context, Berluisconi's government has lasted more than many others. And most of those short lived governments were headed with persons with far less cynicism towards them than is directed at Berlusconi.

Babangida does not have this basis to boast yet. He too has justified himself, but much of that is in the constricted and authoritarian realm of the military. He has headed the federal government and obviously played the politcs that goes with that prime office, but all that still was under the aegis of the military. Does he have aura? Oh yes. Does he have substantial following and passion on his side? No doubt. But these have not been subjected to that critical test of public endorsement which elections confer. This now is what the retired General is after; to confirm as it were his popular appeal and ability to get away with suspicions, cynicism and sundry charges. The test may yet come.

There are quite some critical issues to resolve before the actual campaigns for the 2007 elections commence. There is, for one, the weighty matter of equity in the structure and allocation of prime offices in the country. The core issue at stake here is, of course, the allocation and control of the pre-eminent executive power in the land, otherwise known as the presidency. Here, in that very position can be located the root of much of the evil and frenzy that surround national elections in the country. Indeed, national elections in Nigeria have almost always been reduced to one basic concern; who takes the presidency? All other interests and positions simply follow. The excitement over this singular spot is understandable.This, after all, is to a large extent, a unitary system, never mind that it is effusively dressed in the deceptive garb of a federal state. That deception serves its perpetrators well.

Against the backdrop of consistent resistance by all those who have tasted concentrated power at the centre to entreaties to diffuse power at the centre, the uncompromising jostling for the presidency is easily explainable. The anchoring by the South-East of its claim to the presidency in 2007 to equity is, by this setting therefore, very difficult to dismiss.

While fundamental structural issues that will determine so much about the 2007 elections are yet to be resolved,Babangia has not only become a presidential candidate waiting to be officially declared, he has become an issue himself. As with Berlusconi, passion is heavily divided about him. Those against are as vehement as those for are determined.Interestingly, those against him have done far more than those for him to keep him upfront as an issue in national politcs.Truth be told, what the anti-Babangida sentiments have done with him is a great credit to the man and to Nigeria's evolving democracy. That is the way every presidential candidate should be treated. A potential candidate's antecedents, profile, ideological bent etc., should be exhaustively discussed. That way, the society gets to know who it is dealing with. It is true that a leader's actual capacity and policy thrust are not always fully known from campaign stumps or disposition before assumption of office. Still, it is never a loss to pay attention to a man's antecedent and promises.

In the raging case of Babangida, the passionate opposition to him has not the debate at all. Annulment of the June 12, 1993 election remains a most unfortunate incident in Nigeria's history, one way or another. May be the matter is weighty enough that there is no more need to look at other off sides of the General. May be. The problem with such a stance is that it can cut two ways. What if, as Prof.Wole Soyinka demanded, Babandgida tenders apology for presiding over the annulment, will the passionate opposition be ready to grant him full absolution? The interpretation by some that Soyinka is endorsing Babangida through another means is therefore, not without basis, when viewed along this line.

Is Ibrahim Babangida all about June 12? By no means. Those opposed to him make it seem so, which does not help the debate or anybody. Those for him have been at best pedestrian. All you hear from that side is "Babangida must win", "Nothing will stop IBB" and the very annoying and vacuous pitch.Yet, whatever his negative points may be, there were once brilliant policies that emanated from the Babangida government.

Where are those solid intellectuals who crafted some of those impressive speeches of the man? If the best campaign Babangida can run is that spearheaded by Abdulkareem Adisa,Raji Rasaki,John Shagaya and their tribe, then both candidate Babangida and Nigeria's democracy are in for some trouble. What ever the minuses of Silvio Berlusconi are, he at least has (democratic) class. The potential Berlusconi of our system should at least follow the original on this score too. That is if the arrangement throws him up as an aspirant.