Nasreen Seria, Economics Editor
28 September 2004
Johannesburg — SA COULD be heading for another bumper maize crop of 10million tons next year if weather conditions remained favourable during the planting season, which begins next month, said consultancy Enviro Vision.
Prospects of a good crop next year, coupled with a large surplus stock carried over from this year, could result in less pressure on maize prices quoted on the South African Futures Exchange. But domestic prices may get a boost from the volatile exchange rate and international grain prices, said Enviro Vision.
Commercial farmers surveyed by the agriculture department indicated they would plant a total of 2,854-million hectares of maize for the 2004-05 season, of which 1,811-million would be white maize and 1,043-million yellow maize.
This is higher than last year. Farmers intend to increase the planting area for white maize by 4,8% and the area under yellow maize by 13,6%.
Enviro Vision, which provides maize crop estimates to the department, said in a research report yesterday that, based on farmers' intentions to plant, the crop could be about 10-million tons, ranging between 9,1-million and 11,8-million tons 1-million tons more than the 2003-04 crop, which the department put at 8,934-million tons.
Enviro Vision said that although weather conditions in the maize-growing areas had been very poor in the first three weeks of September, characterised by very little or no rain, this was still better than last year.
"(The) total amount of rainfall over the maize-growing area since April 1 2004 exceeded the total for the corresponding period in 2003, with between 20mm and 100mm," it said.
The better rainfall boosts soil moisture, which in turn is favourable for maize planting.
Enviro Vision said prospects for rain were getting better this year, with "moisture from the tropics starting to move south over west and central Africa".
The report said: "It's possible the rainy season could start earlier, which can be a negative signal for rainfall in midsummer."
The December contract for white maize rose R2 to R941 a ton yesterday. Yellow maize fell R5 to R968 a ton.
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