5 May 2005
'Contemp Ups' Proposes - But Won't The Clock of Progress Be Reversed?
There is no denying that Liberians need structural adjustments and institutional reforms to quash the culture of impunity now pervasive and replace it with the culture of human rights and justice necessary for a stable, democratic Liberia that must be carved out of the ashes of a decade-long warfare in order to produce a stable West Africa. Many had thought these reforms would be achieved prior to presidential and legislative elections in October this year.
But that did not happen primarily because the schedules for thrashing out differences and reconciling, of reforming governance, and of rehabilitating and reintegrating ex-fighters ran into that of the elections that are intended to cap the transitional period and inaugurate a new civilian government. Now the nation has been railroaded on its marks, imminent donor fatigue being the alibi, and now all resources are focused on elections. But a group of Liberians resident in California, USA, are likening the October elections to a construction on sinking sand, arguing that the way forward is to replace the present transitional government with a "People's Representative Government or PRG" to run the country for four years in collaboration with the international community. It will be the mandate of PRG to conclude reforms, settle constitutional bottlenecks to the prosperity of Liberia, and install a new elected government in 2010. But while some think this sounds reasonably, opposition to the idea is ardent, strong, and uncompromising. The Analyst's Staff Writer has been looking at the pros and cons of the issues at stake.
The Liberia Contemporees United Patriotic and Strong (Contemp UPS) has called for the suspension of the current electoral process in favor of the institution of yet another transitional government.
"If while traveling aboard a train from Monrovia to Voinjama it became certain there would be a fatal wreck before arriving at the final destination, would you advise we continue the journey? Well, 'election' is the train some believe will take Liberian to lasting peace, stability and economic prosperity after more than 20 years of political and social turmoil," says Contemp UPS, a Liberian intellectual-political group based in the U.S.
Predicting that holding elections in October this year would bring the nation to a state of wretchedness, the group proposed that the current election activities be brought to a stop before it becomes embarrassingly irreversible.
"Rather than battle one another in a desperate effort to win an election that is likely to create more division and hardship for the Liberian people and perhaps cause the loss of additional lives, why don't we sit as a family and create a road map that will lead to a relatively smooth transition and a successful recovery?" the group wondered in a statement issued Monday this week.
According to the group, which is beating the campaign drums for T.Q. Harris of the Liberia National Union Party (LINU), if it is accepted that the current electoral process be cancelled, a new transitional administration known as the "People's Representative Government (PRG)" could be inaugurated on October 15, 2005.
The PRG, the group said, will be patterned after that of the NTGL but will have a unicameral legislature of 75 members 15 of whom there would be foreign veteran legislators representing the International Community that will play the advisory role.
The PRG will be headed by a chairman elected by the 75-man legislative body.
"This partisan, faction-neutral transitional government shall include foreign experts and strive within a period of four years to reform Liberia's current social political and economic cultures. More importantly, it will place emphasis on reconciliation and prepare the country for peaceful elections in 2009," the Contemp UPS statement said.
The statement fell short of saying neither how the Liberian membership to the government would be drawn nor what would be its legal base. It however said such a transitional political arrangement would save the nation from the disaster it is presently faced with.
"We are talking about a road map that brings relief to the victims and justice for the perpetrators of the atrocities that maimed and killed tens of thousands.
Why must we rush into an election when it is clear that the country is not yet at peace with itself?" it said.
Giving reasons why it thought election now was a recipe for future chaos, Contemp UPS said a number of essentials that would stabilize the country and attract immediate donor support to the new government were yet to be put into place less than eight months to its inauguration in January 2006.
"Attempts within the past 22 months at stabilizing Liberia and laying the groundwork for a smooth transition to full sovereignty have failed because the warlords and politicians generally were unwilling partners in the peace efforts, and the international community did not act decisively," it claimed.
The Contemp UPS statement did not give instances of indecisiveness on the part of the international community, prompting analysts to question its motives, but it proceeded to argue that the "current contentious political climate, the fragile security situation, as well as the possibility of weapons hidden throughout the country, do not bode well for holding elections." The issue of 'unwilling partners' working at vain attempts to move from war to full sovereignty aside, the group expressed fears that like Taylor in 1997, any leader inaugurated in January 2006 would be so desperately in need of trusted security that he or she would stress sovereignty and order the premature departure of UN forces from Liberia before they have the chance to restructure the armed forces, an idea that has now been tabled in favor of the holding of elections in October.
"If the international partners are forced out, which is possible, Liberia will return to the position where human rights abuse, secret killings, rampant corruption and other criminal acts are seen as internal matters. This could lead to another outbreak of violence which is bound to affect neighboring countries. What's the likelihood of 15,000 UN troops returning to Liberia anytime soon?" Contemp UPS wondered.
While security remains paramount to the existence of a future Liberian civilian government, Contemp UPS said with no pre-election steps taken to address the issues of corruption and the patent lack of accountability and transparency, it was unlikely that the international community will infuse cash into the nation's economy.
It said future stability of Liberia, to some extent, depended on international financial assistance which would not come simply because elections were held and a new government inaugurated.
The group surmised that with no international support, reconstruction would be stifled, despondency would step in, and the nation would slip back into chaos.
Plus the problems associated with security and eligibility for foreign assistance, the group said any government elected now would be unable to address issues as crucial and yet as delicate as reconciliation and impunity without risking its own survival.
Notes the group: "With the rehabilitation and reintegration of ex-combatants incomplete and the real possibility of weapons hidden throughout the country, the risk of election-related violence is extremely high. In the absence of a professional army and with the UN troops in a defensive posture, any armed uprising resulting from the elections could easily spin out of control placing ordinary citizens in grave danger, particularly those residing in areas still under the control of ex-combatants." Insisting that justice, and not election, was a priority for Liberians, the group said there was no need to build on sinking sand: "Liberians need not engage in an election unless the proper structure upon which a viable nation could be built has been installed." According to the group, the use of donor fatigue as alibi for "rushing into elections" was unfounded, asking, "Why the rush when this time around our friends within the international community are committed to help us succeed at nation building?" But the question some Liberians, who are watching closely the wavelength of international support to Liberia for last six months, are asking is, "Just who are those friends that are committed to helping Liberia when the handwriting on the wall clearly indicates that donor fatigue has stepped into and clogged the support conduit to Liberia?" According to John W. Slopper of the United Methodist University in Monrovia, the call for cancellation of elections after the international community and the National Elections Commission (NEC) have invested time, resources, and energy into the conduct of a free, fair, and transparent election was incomprehensible.
"That so much remains at stake is understandable, but the argument that every peg must be set right by the international community before election is held in Liberia is a flawed argument that does not take into consideration present reality of the Liberia situation," Slopper said.
He said it was wishful thinking on the part of Contemp UPS to believe that there were still people out there ready to support a six-year transitional process in Liberia while Dafour, Iraq, and other hot spots around the globe compete for less than half of the international attention and support Liberia is currently enjoying.
"Those guys are day dreaming," Felicia Nonah, a civil servant at the Ministry of Transport noted, "haven't they heard that legitimacy has been used as argument against the institution of major reforms by the transitional government? Under what mandate and legal framework would a handpicked PRG institute constitutional reforms as proposed by Contemp UPS?" Like Slopper, Nonah said perpetual transition was unlikely to solve the myriad problems the nation was faced with.
"Yes, impunity needs to be eradicated, AFL needs to be restructured, institutional, judicial, political, economic reforms need to be instituted, and human rights need to be observed and institutionalized, but not with a political arrangement that has not the mandate of the people," she noted.
In her view, all that was required to achieve these hallmarks was the willingness of the spirit of those seeking political power.
"Liberians need to study the candidates for president and find one that will commit to reforms and the restructuring of the security forces by foreigners. If that is done, there will be no need to fear a repeat of the 1998 scenario involving Charles Taylor and ECOMOG which is even unlikely under these circumstances," she said.
She said while ECOMOG incurred the wrath of Charles Taylor's NPFL from the onset of its mission and engaged in combat with the rebel force more than twice, UNMIL has no enemies amongst the factions or political parties.
Whatever the argument for and against the suspension of elections and regime change, observers say the issues raised were worth the while of thinking Liberians.
"No idea is rash and unimportant unless it is logically and rationally discounted; and even at that, it is still a valid opposite of a favored side of an argument," notes one analyst.
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