Stefania Bianchi
9 June 2005
Brussels — The international community must ensure that the situation in Zimbabwe after President Robert Mugabe does not become explosive, a study says.
Rumours arose over the state of Mugabe's health this week following media reports that he had sought medical attention from a cardiologist. He has said that he will in any case stand down in 2008.
The study 'Post-Election Zimbabwe: What Next?' by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that Zimbabwe faces greater chaos and violence as President Robert Mugabe's era draws to a close unless the international community starts planning together for a peaceful transition to democracy.
"The post-election situation may seem like business as usual, but Mugabe's era is ending. Both ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) now face existential challenges," Peter Kagwanja, South Africa project director of the group says in the report.
"The ageing of the old and the conflicting ambitions of the would-be new ZANU-PF chieftains, as well as the growing frustration of what until now has been a remarkably non-violent opposition ensure that change of some kind is coming soon. Unless Zimbabwe's friends get busy and get together, it is all too possible it will be violent and chaotic," he says.
Mugabe, 81, and his ZANU-PF party won parliamentary elections earlier this year. But they were widely condemned by the international community as being flawed.
The Crisis Group, which tracks and analyses developments in trouble spots says Mugabe and ZANU-PF "again manipulated the electoral process through a range of legal and extra-legal means to ensure that the election was basically decided well before the first voters reached the polls."
Mugabe's party now holds the two-thirds majority required to amend the constitution. Many experts believe that ZANU-PF will use that power to prepare a safe retirement for its leader.
But the think-tank warns that a peaceful transfer of power from the Mugabe to a successor is far from guaranteed.
ZANU-PF, which has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from Britain 25 years ago, is bitterly divided over Mugabe's succession, with powerful figures in the party positioning themselves for what could turn out to be a vicious fight for power, the Crisis Group says.
"ZANU-PF is beset with factionalism, spurred by the desire of powerful figures to position themselves for the succession fight. The main factions substantially represent still unreconciled ethnic interests, suggesting that holding the party together may be difficult," the report says.
The ICG insists that the only route with a realistic chance of resolving Zimbabwe's interlinked crises is Mugabe's exit from office at the earliest possible time, while the international community, ZANU-PF and the MDC should begin planning now for the post-Mugabe era.
The Crisis Group is urging the United States, the European Union (EU) and the international financial institutions to make it clear there will be no end to targeted sanctions, no prospect of substantial aid, and no resumption of normal relations unless there are real changes, "not only in the names at the top of government structures but in governance."
It also urges the Zimbabwean government to set a date for the President's retirement before 2008 and to show restraint in amending the constitution without taking opposition views into account.
For the MDC, the Crisis Group says the party must decide fundamental questions, including whether to pursue more confrontational and extra-parliamentary opposition despite the risks.
The group adds that it is particularly important for South Africa to undertake an "urgent review" of its unsuccessful policy to explore new options such as cooperation with the Commonwealth and the G8 countries (the United States, Canada, Japan, Russia, Britain, France, Germany and Italy) to urge its neighbour back on the path to more moderate political and economic policies.
"The policy of 'quiet diplomacy' has failed. The international community must act now to ensure that a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe will not be explosive," warns Nancy Soderberg, Crisis Group vice-president and acting director of the Africa programme.
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