Vanguard (Lagos)

Nigeria: Does Nigeria Deserve Debt Cancellation?

analysis

IN RECENT months Nigeria's pulsating debt cancellation drive has made this issue a major one in global economic agenda. And as the meeting of G8 draws closer and with reports in the international media suggesting that Britain and US have reached some understanding to write off the debts of heavily indebted countries (HIPC), alarm bells went out over the weekend on the non-mention of Nigeria as a beneficiary of this review.

However, the timely intervention of the Minister of Finance, Dr Ngozi Okonji-Iweala cleared the fog concerning the real state of affairs, and thus mitigated an otherwise despondent weekend.

Her upbeat response was that the cancellation of debts for the countries under the HIPC consideration did not mean that Nigeria was left out, because Nigeria's case would be reviewed under the EVIAN regime. The run up to the weekend's flurry of reports on this debt issue began because days before, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, had reportedly journeyed to the US to meet with President Bush, as part of his strategy to persuade the US leader to work with him on lifting debt overhang on the country and a number of poor African countries. So the expectation was quite high, premature it has turned out.

Nigeria and indeed Africa have remained under-achievers and fringe players in world economy and may remain so for a very long time until some thing is done concerning the debt issue. The case of Nigeria is particularly enraging when you look at the resource endowments available to her.

The humiliation and harassment over this debt issue was avoidable if the country had girded herself up from the beginning for the difficult and challenging task of building a truly independent economic power. That was not done. Rather the country elected the easy way out, the soft approach of borrowing to finance her consumer-oriented appetite, rather than building up her industrial base, which every serious nation does. Typical of the leadership many of the loans were never used for the purposes intended; indeed until recently no one was sure how much the country was owing, and how the debt was being managed. The confusion was such that it was the setting up of the Debt Management Office (DMO) that brought some sanity to the debt profile of the country. That was how unserious this country is.

The unseriousness truly began when this country under military head of state General Olusegun Obasanjo took the jumbo loan of 1977, unwittingly pushing the country into a debt trap she has fallen into since then. The paradox is that in his second coming, the President has exerted himself trying to correct the tragedy of the error of his decision as a military ruler. He may not admit so, but clearly the jumbo loan as so many people told him then was uncalled for have proved to be prophetic.

With a foreign dominated enclave economy, a weak industrial base, a disoriented leadership class, the country has over the years locked herself away into a permanent prison of poverty, fit only to supply the global powers the raw resources they need. In a recent analysis Dr Okonjo-Iweala, gave out important facts about the stature of Nigeria's debt, she said: "Nigeria's external debt stands presently at US$34 billion. About $28 billion or 85 percent of the debt is owed to the Paris Club of 15 creditor nations.

Only 8 per cent of the debt is owed to multilateral institutions such as the African Development Bank and the World Bank whilst the balance of 7 per cent is owed to the London Club of commercial creditors and holders of promissory notes. Nigeria does not owe the IMF any money. The first fact therefore is that Nigeria's debt problem is really "a Paris Club debt problem"

The other fact she unfolded highlights the startling poverty index of the country, and her observation was that: "Our total oil revenues last year were no more than $25 billion net. When it is spread over our large population of 130 million people, as I said elsewhere, this translates to no more than 53 cents or 70 naira per person per day.

Compare this with Venezuela with 23.5 million people and $3.4 per person per day, Kuwait with 2.75 million people and $27.3 per person per day, or even Iraq with 25 million people and $2.4 per person per day and you will see that Nigeria, even in the best possible circumstances, is facing serious financial challenges." Considering the enormity of the challenge the word 'serious financial challenge' is a classic under statement. The country is right at the bottom of the poverty barrel.

In the piece referred to Dr Okonjo-Iweala talked about some reforms the government has put in place as signs that things are changing.

While not denying her the right to enthuse about the changes in government, the durability and sustainability is the x factor in the whole equation. All over the world social and economic transformation are slow and painful process, which only a committed leadership can bring about. Nevertheless, it cannot be overlooked that the quality of social infrastructure, unemployment, industrial growth will not improve unless there is some relief in the repayment of the huge debt. And on this some credit should go to the Finance Minister for sharpening the focus of government on the need to tackle these issues head long. She desires more credit because as the head of the President's economic think tank, the country has achieved a measure of coherence in pursuing clearly defined economic goals.

It is also a fact that in this debt drive apart from the President, Dr Okonjo-Iweala's recognisable face and articulation of the issues as a former world bank expert has helped to open doors. At the same time, the President has brought his extensive international contacts to bear in the drive for debt forgiveness, the only minus to him is that he formulated this aggressive policy rather late in the day. In his first term the energy and enthusiasm in pushing for debt cancellation was obviously lacking.

Yet, the procrastination by the G8 leaders to expeditiously reach decision on the cancellation of the country's huge debt profile, does not mean that Nigeria has not done enough to be granted the relief she is asking for.


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