This is not a very good time to wear President Yoweri Museveni's shoes. The month of October has been a very bad one for him and his party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM).

Two of his most loathed political adversaries, Milton Obote of the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) and Forum for Democratic Change (FDC's) Kizza Besigye have returned home.

As matter of fact, Obote came back in a coffin and harmless on the face of it.

But the countrywide uproar that greeted his return, the international attention that his death received and the general pandemonium that gripped people wherever the body went was enough to send shock waves across the NRM environs, measuring really high on the Richter scale.

The President was more or less arm-twisted by the local and international pressure to give his avowed foe a most honourable send-off to the next world.

More Museveni misery

Today, Besigye returns from exile in South Africa to prolong the President's misery.

From the burial of Obote in Akokoro, the crowds will move to Entebbe, and thereafter wherever Besigye will be. President Museveni has indicated that Besigye faces arrest to answer possible criminal charges.

But would the arrest of Besigye do President Museveni any good?

On the other hand, can Government afford to let Besigye enjoy his freedom in the run up to what promises to be a hotly contested presidential election?

"We are past that stage. Threats are not going to prevent us from doing what we want.

The coming of Dr Besigye has upset Museveni's calculation. The political equation with regard to the presidential elections has changed," says FDC's Augustine Ruzindana, who has been in South Africa to arrange Besigye's return.

Ruzindana cited reports that the army could try to harm the FDC chief. He says that has to be taken seriously and any shooting will be by order of the President.

Museveni dilemma

Besigye presents a dilemma for President Museveni and Government.

President Museveni has indicated that he could have criminal charges preferred against the returnee.

But Besigye has dismissed the President's intent as "part of the continuous gimmicks Museveni has always employed to harass political opponents."

However, Government Spokesman Dr James Nsaba Buturo says: "What we should get clearly is that the President did not say that Besigye will be charged. He was reminding us that there could be outstanding charges. In any case, it is not the job of Cabinet to decide that."

From Besigye's response and information from within the FDC, Besigye is fully aware that Government may actually charge him.

The party is reportedly hatching counter measures to thwart any Government plot to keep Besigye out of the Presidential race, including setting up and equipping a legal team to handle the charges.

Should Government therefore arrest Besigye and press charges, the FDC will be ready to make the trial into a political campaign.

The plan is to turn it into a trial of President Museveni and the Government's record. That is why a confident Besigye told farewell gathering of his supporters at the Institute of Business Studies in Pretoria, South Africa that he is prepared to fight "a political and legal struggle" with Government.

In fact, FDC would most likely welcome such a move on the part of government.

Mere charges cannot prevent Besigye from contesting in the Presidential elections, nor can they prevent him from traversing the country campaigning, except in the event that he is charged with treason where the law permits the state to remand a suspect for up to a year.

If he can carry out his campaigns but at the same time fighting another battle in court, the tide is likely to turn against the Government.

On the other hand, FDC will be the winner should Besigye be allowed to roam around the country free. Part of the FDC plan is to have Besigye visit almost all the district braches the party has set up. With about four months to re-sell himself to the population, the NRM could be in for a shock.

Critics are however already asking questions why President Museveni should extend a hand of reconciliation to UPC in the wake of the death of Dr Milton Obote, but seek a confrontation with FDC by instigating Besigye's arrest. FDC however says the President is not serious about it.

Not like Museveni

"It is out of character for President Museveni to reconcile with anybody. Once he competes with somebody, then that person becomes an enemy. No one should take his call seriously, he has never reconciled with anybody," says Ruzindana.

Apparently, President Museveni does not take UPC without Obote as a threat in the 2006 elections. A promise to review Idi Amin's position is seen as extending a hand to the Muslim community to consolidate his standing there.

But Besigye is a real threat and there is no way President Museveni could sit down with FDC to harmonise his position. He would rather cause his arrest. "He can only reconcile with dead people, not those who are alive," says Ruzindana.

There are two positions in Government. Some people want reconciliation across the board, which would include Besigye. The other radical group wants confrontation right away.

Buturo however says that if at all there are different positions, they are individual positions. "The official one remains that he is free, but f there are any outstanding questions, he will answer," he says.

The Besigye saga is therefore a trial for Museveni and the Government in a sense that it will show how far he can go at working with his opponents. All signs show that he will not come out of the trial unscathed.

FDC division

Besigye's return is likely to resurrect the rivalry that threatened the cohesion in FDC, within months after the promoters launched the party.

One camp wanted to stick with Besigye, as the undisputed party chief while the other wanted former Army Commander Mugisha Muntu to be the flag bearer.

FDC has openly denied such problems existed, while internally they have struggled to strike a compromise between the two. Muntu has been spearheading opening of district offices for the party.

In May, he led a tour of Busoga region as President Museveni was travelled around the country beefing up his anti poverty campaign tours. Besigye on the other hand has been in exile. However, he has successfully built FDC's image abroad at the expense of the NRM. FDC has also been swift to ensure that they beat the Electoral Commission registration deadline on Friday. Both men are therefore strong contenders, which takes FDC back to the drawing board as its delegates conference nears.

Opposition blues

Can the political parties that have all insisted that they will each field a presidential candidate swallow their pride and rally around Besigye?

Should each party go it alone when there is a possibility that a joint candidate could change their fortunes?

Big, big questions.