Nairobi — Religion and ethnicity are likely to influence significantly how the people of Upper North Eastern Kenya - Isiolo, Marsabit and Moyale districts - vote in the referendum.

The recent skirmishes that hit Marsabit district caused a major poltical shift, in which all the four MPs from the Borana community in the region moved to the Banana camp. Mr Abdi Sasura (Saku), Dr Guracha Galgalo (Moyale), Dr Mohammed Kuti (Isiolo North) and Mr Mohammed Bahari (Isiolo South), teamed up with Mr Titus Ngoyoni (Laisamis), from the minority Rendile communuty, to isolate former Cabinet minister Dr Bonaya Godana (North Horr), who is a Gabra. Dr Godana, the deputy Official Opposition leader, has been a key political figure in the region in the last few years.

Mr Bahari has since moved back to the Orange camp. His political rival, former MP Abdulahi Wako, has been busy on the campaign trail for the No vote. The shifts indicate the political underrcurrents since the Turbi massacre.

The vast but sparsely populated region comprises Marsabit, Isiolo, and Moyale districts in Eastern province. It has six constituencies with 108,920 registered voters. Marsabit, the largest district, has Saku, Laisamis and North Horr constituencies while Moyale is a district constituency. Isiolo is divided into Isiolo North and Isiolo South constituencies.

Majority of the inhabitants are Borana, followed by the Gabra and the Rendile.

There is a considerable population of Burji in Marsabit and Moyale. Other minority communities in the region include Gari of Moyale and Sakuye of Isiolo. There is also a big population of the Meru people in Isiolo as well as Samburu and Turkana.

The Borana and Gabra have been embroiled in conflict over control of scarce resources for their livestock in Marsabit. This resulted into a war that heightened in July this year. More than 90 people were killed at Turbi trading centre in North Horr.

When the Wako Draft was released, the four Borana MPs and Mr Ngoyoni called a press conference to declare their support for it.

Given this background and the turn of events, how are people in this region expected to vote?

With the Borana MPs supporting Yes, all Gabras have vowed to vote No. Gabra occupy North Horr, which has 17,633 voters. There is a small population of Boranas in the constituency.

Despite the stand taken by their leaders, not all Boranas are supporting the proposed Constitution. Many of them profess the Islamic faith and may follow the path set by their religious leaders.

It is also notable that the Orange camp has been bolstered by two former MPs from the Borana community. Mr Charfano Guyo Mokku, a former Isiolo North MP, is the Orange point man in the district, while Mr Jillo Falana who lost to Mr Sasura in Saku is campaigning for a No vote in Marsabit. Mr Falana is remembered for being a key player in the parliamentary initiative that gave birth to the Constitution review.

Nevertheless, the Banana group is still a force to reckon with. In Isiolo North, for instance, there is a large Meru population among the 30,926 million voters. Indeed, the constituency was between 1983 and 1988 represented by a Meru. Saku, with 15,881 registered voters, is also pretty cosmopolitan.

In Laisamis with 15,594 voters, the community leaders in the area occupied by the Rendille, Samburu and Turkana are in the No group. They attended the Suswa meeting where Maasai leaders urged the pastoralists to reject the Draft.

Muslim preachers and leaders have cite the lumping together of Kadhi's courts with other religious courts, including traditional courts, and provisions on equal property rights as unfavourable to their faith. But those supporting the Draft say it is progressive.