Nairobi — Robert Rose rolls a pen between his fingers, then raises his head and asks: "Famine? There has not been famine in Kenya. There has been mitigation."

A programme officer with the World Food Programme (WFP), Rose, while trying to demystify a "general misconception", explains that what has often been reported as famine in parts of the country is, in fact, persistent food insecurity or chronic hunger.

"It becomes a famine when there are mass deaths arising from a complete absence of food," he says.

Away from terminology issues, discussions with Rose, officials of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews-Net) and the Government's Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), all of whom are members of the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), point towards improper land use by communities, changing climatic conditions, and lacklustre performance by authorities in the affected regions.

Latest information reveal that food insecurity in 17 districts across the country is alarming, and could get worse as the year turns.

The short rains, on which the affected lowlands depend for food production, are failing, says Nancy Mutunga of Fews-Net and James Oduor of ALRMP.

This is after repeated seasons of bad weather. In pastoralist areas, for example, even the hardy camels are reportedly dying of extreme weather conditions. Droughts and floods have chronologically replaced each other in some regions.

Both Oduor and Mutunga say the frequency of poor weather conditions is becoming more regular and unusually prolonged. This has particularly been observed within the past 10 years. Increasing frequency and duration of drought, in particular, have destabilised coping strategies of affected communities. Many have been stretched beyond survival limits.

"This is visible in increasing levels of destitution and a rising number of pastoralist drop-outs, for example, appearing in urban centres," says Mutunga. She says it is a result of reduced pasture and declining numbers of livestock, forcing patoralists out of their traditional ways.

Besides climatic reasons, it is now noted that a major contributor to perennial hunger in the 17 affected districts is linked to rigid practices and incapability among locals, and sometimes negligence by authorities.

In order of severity, the arid areas of Baringo, Turkana and Samburu in the North Rift region, Isiolo, Marsabit, Makueni and Moyale in Eastern, the whole of North Eastern Province, and Tana River in Coast Province, top the list.

Extreme weather patterns, marked by a prolonged absence of rain and, sometimes, floods combine with poor development indicators and stiff lifestyles to make people here highly vulnerable.

Most inhabitants of these areas, being pastoralists, derive their livelihood entirely from livestock. This has played against them lately. When drought strikes, animals die for lack of pasture and water. The immediate sufferers are children. They become malnourished as milk, their only source of proper nutrition, diminishes.

These areas also have poor indicators of development. Education levels are low and infrastructure is poor. "Pastoralists rely on markets, yet these areas lack proper structures and roads," says Oduor.

The long distances that people trek to the markets are serious setbacks and worsen when animals are weakened by harsh weather. Add these to general insecurity, poor health and widespread poverty, among other unfavourable factors.

Yet this is what the people have endured for the past 10 years - bad weather. Droughts in 1992-93, 1996-97 and 1998-2001, floods in 1997 to 2001, and the current agro-climatic changes have only heightened food insecurity in these regions.

There has been a consistent reduction of livestock productivity owing to "inadequate availability of key fundamentals - water, pasture and browse," according to information from Fews-Net. This has led to many deaths in the area.

Hardship coping mechanisms have also been eroded. Mutunga, the Kenya representative for FEWS-NET, says pastoralists had ways of withstanding the extremities of weather, but these have now been interrupted by prolonged climatic changes and increased encroachment on reserve land.

"There used to be designated areas for grazing during wet and dry seasons. During wet seasons, pastoralists grazed their animals around their homesteads. They moved to special areas further away only when the dry season set in. Now there are no dry season areas," she says.

This is not only because of sustained poor weather but also encroachment by people for settlement and charcoal burning practices. Worse, these communities are unable to "develop and adopt new productive initiatives."

Rose cites education as the key, saying it would enhance the people's ability to develop quick escape alternatives. Livestock are not easily recoverable assets, adds Mutunga.

Currently, livestock prices have fallen drastically in some areas, accentuating poverty levels. A few months ago, a resident of Kitui, for example, lamented the declining prices of goats in the area, saying he had sold one for about Sh300.

In marginal agricultural areas, mostly the lowlands of Eastern Province, such as Ukambani, a sustained population pressure has pushed people from the comparatively more productive highland to the unproductive lower sections.

As they shift, the communities practise the same agricultural methods of the higher grounds, which is mainly production of maize. The result has been mass failure of the crop. Parts of Makueni district, for example, are affected, particularly the southern divisions of Kathonzweni, Makindu, Kibwezi, and Mtito Andei.

A drive around Kathonzweni division reveals crop failure in households that planted maize at the start of the last season a month ago. The ones who went for crops like cassava and cowpeas may have a harvest, at least in the first quarter of next year.

"One of the key problems in marginal agricultural areas is enterprise. Some households have moved from the highlands and transferred their planting habits to the lower zones," says Mutunga. "They try to grow maize as they did on the higher ground, but this is not the right crop for some of these places. The result is persistent crop failure," adds Rose.

The lower areas, he points out, are more conducive to production of hardy crops like cassava, millet and sorghum, but which the present generation is uninterested in.

"A change of attitude is needed here," says Mutunga. This compounds the communities' state of unpreparedness when rains fail, and is exactly what has happened. "The failed 2005 long rains represent the second consecutive poor season," says last month's Kenya Food Security Update, jointly produced by the Government, Fews-Net and WFP.

The document says poor start of the critical short rains has raised fears of a worsening situation. The season contributes close to 70 per cent of farm output in the lowlands of Makueni, Kitui, Malindi, Kwale, Kilifi and Taita Taveta districts. Catastrophic food insecurity cannot be ruled out.

The current emergency intervention, planned to end in February 2006, may be extended, Oduor says. "If rains fail, as they are likely to, we shall start another emergency intervention from March to August 2006."

For instance, six divisions in Makueni - namely Kibwezi, Mtito Andei, Nguu, Kathonzweni, Kalawa and Makindu - are listed by the district's drought monitoring team, headed by Daniel Mbuvi, as experiencing a worsening scenario.

Experts are beginning to note a marked rise in stunted children in these areas, suggesting an unresolved problem.

"The nutritional status of children under five years is deteriorating," says Mbuvi. Frustrated farmers are now intensifying charcoal burning and sand harvesting as coping strategies.

Authorities are beginning to express fear that the level at which these activities are being conducted will be disastrous to the environment. Charcoal sacks marked for sale dot the dusty road linking Wote (Makueni's main town) and Makindu, selling at Sh200.

Undeniably, food insecurity in most of the marginal agricultural regions date back to the late nineties, when a dangerous swing of weather between floods and drought hit the country.

According to Oduor, the first of a series of interventions started after the drought of 1999 to 2000. Between May 2000 and September 2002, 26 districts across the country received emergency assistance valued at about 360 million US dollars. About 3.3 million people needed this relief.

There was then a temporary reprieve until September 2004, when it again emerged that about 2.6 million people were in need of aid. This was supplied at a price of 100 million US dollars, until February this year. Again, 26 districts were affected.

Emergency food requirement has been persistent since then. Between March and August this year, about 60 million US dollars has been spent to support over two million food-insecure people in 21 districts. The on-going phase of assistance is to cater for 1.2 starving people in 17 districts. By February next year, about 32.5 million US dollars will have been spent.

Going by a recent observation in Makueni and the reports generated from there and other agro-ecological zones, Oduor's fear that emergency food assistance may go beyond February next year may be well founded.

These emergency operations, known among humanitarian personnel as EMOP, are the mitigation Rose refers to. They have prevented a possible outbreak of famine.