Kampala — IN 2001, President Yoweri Museveni won in Buganda with 64% of the vote against Col. (rtd.) Dr. Kizza Besigye's 34%. This was down from 70% in 1996, when he defeated Dr. Paul Ssemogerere, who polled 29%.

In Buganda, federo (federalism) and traditional leaders are the key issues that dominate campaigns. The Baganda always demand for ebyaffe (federo and the kingdom) and are inclined to elect a person who will support this cause.

Although demand for federo is a factor in elections, its impact on the voting trends is not clear.

In 2001, Museveni faced three key Buganda ministers who jumped onto Besigye's side, arguing that he was the only person capable of delivering federo. The ministers were Joyce Ssebugwawo, Kamala Kanamwangi, and Dr. Robert Ssebunya. Besigye even paid a visit to Mengo, where he donated several hoes and pangas and also promised federo.

The three Buganda ministers, together with several other personalities in Mengo, argued that Museveni had failed to return what Mengo was demanding. At voting time, however, it was Museveni who won in Buganda.

Museveni reminded the Baganda that it was the National Resistance Movement (NRM) that had resurrected Buganda's lost glory. On their part the Baganda consider Museveni as a man who not only overthrew the man (Apollo Milton Obote) who had dethroned Kabaka Edward Muteesa, but also enthroned the current Kabaka, Ronald Mutebi. The Baganda listened to him.

It remains to be seen what the impact of the regional tier system, a watered-down version of federo, will be. The system provides for the election of the Katikkiro, which some Baganda are against. A group of bataka (Buganda elders) recently expressed their sentiments in a demonstration against the provision. The opposition is likely to pick up on this to decampaign Museveni in Buganda.

Besides the reinstatement of its cultural rights, Buganda has recorded rapid development under the Movement reign. It has relatively good infrastructure. Hundreds of schools have been constructed by both private investors and the Government. There are health centres at almost every sub-county, though many of them are not yet well equipped.

However, some people accuse the Government of not fighting the banana and coffee wilts that are threatening Buganda's economy and consigning many to poverty.

Politically, Buganda region is firmly in the NRM fold in its representation in Cabinet. It has the second largest number of ministers and ministers of state, totalling 20. Only western Uganda has got more.

Key figures in Cabinet from Buganda include Vice-President Gilbert Bukenya; Prime Minister Apolo Nsibambi; Agriculture Minister Janat Mukwaya; Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Khiddu Makubuya and Education Minister Namirembe Bitamazire.

Against this background, decampaigning Museveni and the NRM in Buganda will be an uphill task.

Voting pattern

Historically, Buganda votes as a block. In 1980 it was largely Democratic Party (DP) turf. DP took all the constituencies in Masaka, Luweero, Mpigi, Mukono and Rakai. It is only in Mubende where Uganda People's Congress (UPC) strongman Samwiri Mugwisa won the Mubende North-east seat. Even there, the rest of the seats were won by DP.

When the NRM took power in 1986 it co-opted several DP members into the Government and gradually strangled the party. DP subsequently lost several key members to the NRM. These include Speciosa Wandira Kazibwe (former Vice-President), Kisamba Mugerwa (former Agriculture Minister) Gerald Ssendaula (former Finance Minister), Edward Ssekandi (Speaker of Parliament) and the current Vice-President Gilbert Bukenya, plus hundreds of lower and mid level cadres, including the vocal Haji Abdul Nadduli of Luweero.

NRM also wooed UPC supporters like Kefa Ssempangi and Peter Bakaluba Mukasa from Mukono. Ever since the Movement came to power, Buganda has consistently voted as a block for Museveni.

At the time of the "defections", political party activities had been suspended. Although the country is now in a multiparty dispensation and DP is back, most of the influential personalities who defected to NRM have not gone back to DP or UPC.

Buganda-NRM marriage

The recent debate on lifting presidential term limits tells a lot about the NRM-Buganda marriage. Buganda showed the least opposition to the move.

The west had Eriya Kategaya, Mugisha Muntu, Augustine Ruzindana, Richard Kaijuka, Amanya Mushega, John Kazoora and other former allies of Museveni opposed to it. However, in Buganda, it was only Jaberi Bidandi Ssali, and to some extent, Sarah Kiyingi, who resisted.

People like Theodore Ssekikubo and Alintuma Nsambu, who had shown some signs of discontent, quickly reconciled and supported the kisanja.

Most of the opposition to the lifting of term limits in Buganda was left to traditional multiparty supporters. This was seen as either an endorsement of Museveni or cowardice from Baganda.

Kampala

In 1996, President Yoweri Museveni narrowly won it with 54% of the vote, while Paul Ssemogerere garnered 45%. However, in 2001 Besigye won in Kampala, with 51% of the vote, compared to Museveni's 48%.

Why is Kampala anti-Museveni? The reasons are varied. Many people leave the countryside in search of employment in Kampala, only to find themselves unemployed and frustrated. Kampala is also a centre for educated elitists, who exhibit mainly anti-government sentiments. Urban dwellers oppose NRM on account of policies like privatisation, which led to the sale of the parastatals that employed many.

However, Kampala credits NRM for improved security, which has recreated the city from the gangland of the 1970s and 1980s to a habitable urban centre.

Kampala's MPs look equally spread out between the NRM and DP. NRM has Francis Babu (Kampala-Central) Margaret Zziwa (Women) Tom Kayongo (Rubaga North) and Fred Ruhindi (Nakawa). DP has got Latif Ssebagala (Kawempe North) Ssebuliba Mutumba (Kawempe South) and Michael Mabikke (Makindye East). CP has got Ken Lukyamuzi (Rubaga South) and Nsubuga Nsambu (Makindye West).

The dominance of the opposition, especially DP, in Kampala is more pronounced in the Local Council leadership. Ssebaana Kizito (DP President) is the Mayor of the city and all LC3s are chaired by DP members, as are most of the councillors.

NRM is clearly a minority in Kampala. Under the prevailing political circumstances, the city is likely to be a fight between DP candidate Ssebaana, Independent candidate Sebaggala and FDC leader Besigye. The three are likely to share the opposition vote of about 65%. Meanwhile, Museveni will be the only NRM candidate. He has got a cluster of supporters, especially in Nakawa and Rubaga divisions. A Sunday Vision opinion poll last week indicated growing support for Museveni in Kampala

Luweero

Luweero is a key district in Buganda. It is from here that Museveni fought the protracted five-year war that brought him into power.

The district had 225,804 registered voters in 2001 election and Museveni won about 78% of the votes cast. This is not likely to change much, although the opposition, especially the FDC is trying hard to make inroads.

The district is a no-go area for UPC due to the war, while DP support switched to NRM, which provided shelter to the people during the conflict. Inevitably, the war largely influences voting in Luweero and other districts that made up the Luweero triangle in the early 1980s.

However, NRM will face opposition from some of the people who claim that they contributed to the war effort but have not been compensated. Others are crying about neglect, irrespective of the role they played in the war.

Luweero had four constituencies in 2001, but with the establishment of Nakaseke as a separate district, only three are left. There is no single anti-NRM MP in the district. Makubuya (Katikamu South), Ali Ndaula (Bamunanika) and James Kinobe (Katikamu North) are all NRM. Kinobe, however, lost the party primaries to another strong NRM man - Eng. Abraham Byandala. Nakaseke District, which has just broken off from Luweero, is also strongly NRM.

There is some bitter fighting between the various NRM leaders in the district. The chairman, Nadduli, is pitted against Major James Kinobe. It remains to be seen if this infighting will affect their campaigning cohesion.

However, overall, this is a purely NRM district and it will again win it by at least 70% of the vote.

Mukono

In 2001, Mukono had 403,447 registered voters. Museveni won it with 65% of the vote. Politically, parts of Mukono are an extension of Kampala. The main town of Mukono is just 24km from Kampala. However, the district has also got rural areas, which are inclined to think like rural Buganda, with a bias towards Museveni and the NRM.

The district is largely NRM, with incumbent MPs like Bakaluba Mukasa (Mukono North) and Janat Mukwaya (Mukono South) supporting the party. Others are Eron Nantume (Buikwe West) and Kefa Ssempangi (Ntenjeru South).

During the NRM primaries, however, the electorate dropped several incumbent NRM MPs. Voters also rejected the LC5 boss Damulira Kyeyune, who had a few years ago defected from DP. It remains to be seen how this will affect the NRM.

The opposition is poised to benefit from the economic woes of the district. Vanilla was for a long time a major cash crop, but unfortunately prices suddenly dropped. Some residents accuse the Government of not caring enough about the vanilla slump. However, overall, NRM will clinch it again, with about 60% of the vote.

Wakiso

Wakiso District had 520,987 voters in 2001. Museveni won with 60% of the vote.

The district circles Kampala and borders Mpigi and Luweero. People here are largely farmers. The introduction of upland rice by Vice-President Bukenya could this time round attract votes for Museveni and NRM.

Compared to other districts of Buganda, it is in Wakiso that NRM has faced the hottest contest, at least if the equation of MPs is to go by. This is largely because some areas of Wakiso, like Bweyogerere, Kira, Kasangati, Nabweru, Kyengera and Kajjansi are extensions of Kampala

NRM MPs in Wakiso are Prof. Bukenya (Busiro North), Kibirige Ssebunya (Kyadondo North), Sitenda Ssebalu (Kyadondo East), Michael Ssebalu (Busiro East) and Rose Sseninde (Women)

Among the opposition parties, it is only DP that has got incumbent MPs. These are Isa Kikungwe (Kyadondo South) and Balikudembe (Busiro West). FDC has only Sam Kalega Njuba as an influential personality in the district. The contest for Wakiso will be between NRM and DP. A clear winner cannot be identified now.

Mpigi

Mpigi is part of the Luweero Triangle. In 2001, Mpigi had 192,811 voters. President Museveni won the district with 75% of the votes cast. Mpigi is also dominantly NRM. NRM MPs there include Kaddunabi Lubega (Butambala), Kalule Ssengo (Gomba), Mutebi Kityo (Mawokota South) and Peter Mutuluza (Mawokota North).

In 1996 Museveni beat Ssemogerere in Mpigi with 70.5 % against 25.5%. There is an indication that Museveni support in Mpigi grew against Besigye in 2001.

FDC Chairman Dr. Sulaiman Kiggundu comes from here. However, he is not so popular because he has never been a seasoned politician. It remains to be seen how his popularity in Butambala affects the trend of the voting. NRM will win here with 70% of the vote.

Masaka

In 2001 Masaka had 386,267 registered voters and Museveni won it with 70% of the votes cast. Traditionally, this was thought to be a DP stronghold. DP won all seats here in 1980 because vast areas of Masaka are Catholic and take the historical tilt to DP. However, Museveni has always won it because NRM has attracted most of DP's influential personalities. Even the son of former DP President General Kagimu Kiwanuka has abandoned the party.

In 1996 Museveni beat Ssemogerere, a DP and Catholic, with 75.2% against 20.7%.

Museveni's rating in the district dropped by 5% in 2001. The entrance of Ssebaana as DP candidate is likely to chip away further at NRM's votes. In the Sunday Vision poll last week, 42% indicated they would vote Museveni against 25%, 26% and 2% for Besigye, Ssebaana and Miria Kalule Obote respectively.

Masaka has produced some of the most powerful ministers in the current government through the years.

NRM incumbent MPs include Alintuma Nsambu (Bukoto East), Dr. Herbert Lwanga (Bukoto South), Kezimbira Miyingo (Bukoto Mid-West), Kagimu Kiwanuka (Bukomansimbi) and Mulindwa Birimumaaso (Bukoto West). The LC leadership is also dominated by NRM.

Among the leading opposition MPs are John Kawanga (Masaka Municipality) of DP and Vincent Kimera of FDC. NRM is likely to win again with 60% of the vote.

Others

All other districts in Buganda are largely NRM. In 2001 Nakasongola voted 98% for Museveni, while Kayunga voted 78% for him. Museveni polled 65% in Ssembabule and collected 85% in Rakai, while he picked 86% from Mubende and 88% from Kiboga.

There is no indication that this is set to change come 2006. Museveni may drop at least 4% of his winning margin in Buganda and win with around 60% of the vote.

On January 1, 2006, we will review Busoga region