As the city administration, which saw a clean sweep by the opposition, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) still remains vacant following the party decision to boycott it and the government's crackdown on the party, people are still wondering about its possible fate.

Last week Prime Minister Meles Zenawi gave the impression that new re-elections were to be held now that the electees have failed to take up their seats. But it was pointed out at that particular parliamentary session that re-elections needed a great deal of time as the National Electoral Board (NEB) had to undergo through a capacity building process. Several people give their own opinion and surmise the possible fate of the city administration based on their analysis.

Abiyou Fage, a political science student at the Ethiopian Civil Service College (ECSC), is of the opinion that the premier's statement was indicative of his government's month-long stance not to hand over the city administration to the elected body. He cites the under-reporting of recent attempts by electees' to take over the city administration as an evidence for EPRDF's commitment to let the city administration remain in its hands. "In my view Ato Meles never wanted to give the city administration to the elected body. Mind you, the party, which won popular support in several spots of the country, was being smeared with all sorts of bad names and expression of hate over the state media even when it looked poised to take up the administration. The committee established by electees to try and take over the administration came up with some preconditions. This provided a perfect opportunity for EPRDF to take some more time to decide on the issue in order to appease the American government and to decide for re-elections," he says.

Nevertheless, a social advocacy worker in one of the civil society organizations does not agree with Abiyou. According to this worker, the EPRDF would not fool itself with the idea of re-elections or buying time with the prolonging of the provisional administration when it could do more of a diplomatic gain by handing over the administration to the elected. "Why wouldn't EPRDF hand over Addis Ababa to these people? There is nothing to fear. Of course, had it been the case that the elected Mayor, Secretary and the other 13 electees were at large, one could imagine that the EPRDF was panicking. But now it's just individuals and not a party, which are demanding the take-over. Individuals and the Lidetu-led EDUP-Medhin will never be that capable to threaten EPRDF if they take over. Besides, Meles has suffered a disgrace particularly with his European bosses. It is the US which remains his possible ally. Now the fact is the US wants the administration given to CUD electees and is still exerting efforts towards that end will keep Meles from any foolish attempt to let the city remain in its hands. Therefore I'd say re-elections were mentioned by the PM to divert peoples' attention and to buy some time."

Tessema Behailu, himself an expert in one of the civil society organizations, doesn't agree with his colleague. He believes that the mention of reelections was not meant for mere suspense. "It was pretty obvious that the electees were far from strong enough to take over the administration. Their attempts are commendable. But look, we're talking about individuals and not a party trying to take control of the city. First of all the city charter stipulates that the administration could change when power is transferred to the elected party. The party, which was supposed to take it over, is now said to be non-existent. Secondly, people are not sure if this group is well organized even in terms of canvassing the support of the majority of the electees. Only 58 registered when a four-day-long chance was given and this shows that there is little the committee could do to convince electees at large. Therefore, reelections are inevitable. The question is when."

For others the idea of re-elections is not tenable. The social advocacy worker says conducting re-elections was the silliest game the EPRDF would ever play. "Ato Meles and his administration will never toy with the idea of re-elections especially here in Addis. It's dangerous. Why face humiliation again when a lot more of diplomatic gain could be made with external forces by handing over the administration to the elected? If reelections are conducted there will obviously be quite low voter turnouts, which would make it difficult to endorse the results. Secondly the PM himself has told parliament that the people of Addis were not in a position to go out en masse to the voting stations in the near future as their stamina has suffered a great deal due to election-related violence. This was to justify his need for taking some time. Meles would use the time granted to him by the House to try to hand over the administration to the CUD electees. Then he would have to worry about re- runs in those constituencies where electees failed to take up their seats," he said.

Abdallah Abdo, political science expert in an independent organization, says Meles talked of possible re-elections and failed to give the exact dates since he wanted to prolong the provisional administration. "I've heard that additional six-month budgets have been allocated and now given to sub-city administrations. First, when the EPRDF discovered that the CUD took all the 23 seats of Addis, it ordered its appointees at various sub-city levels to stand by for possible appointments elsewhere. Sub-cities or the administration did nothing remarkable for the first three-month period. Now why would they be given money if the electees were going to take over? So it's obvious that Meles wants neither re-elections nor handing it over to the elected. So in order to prolong the administration without arousing public discontent or external reactions, he talked of a reelection, whose date was never specified. Now the city administration has been technically prolonged," he said.

The issue of re-elections was controversial. For some it seems tenable based on the charter as well as prevailing conditions. But for others they were mentioned to buy time. The fate of those who have been elected in Addis and joined parliament as well as the EDUP-Medhin electees, who expressed their readiness to take up whatever seats they won is another issue which lends the whole matter complexity.

"It's difficult for Meles to reject EDUP-Medhin electees, who decided to take up city council seats as a party. It's too legal to refuse and the same goes for about 13 of the 23 electees in Addis who joined the federal parliament by ending party boycott," says an analyst at the Ministry of Federal Affairs.

Nevertheless, some others feel that if the city council electees willing to take up seats do not number 71 to form a majority, Meles would have no other option than conducting new reelections in which city residents decide who will administer them. "The Constitution stipulates that the elected body should administer the city. But we have seen that a great many of them failed to register at NEB by setting preconditions, which they knew the EPRDF would not meet. The other concern that I have is that of late people hear nothing about these electees and what they are up to, although it's clear that the American Embassy is still pestering them to lift the preconditions and take up their seats," says another expert from the Ministry of Federal Affairs.

There now remain two options for Meles. One is to give chance for the electees to make their minds up within the additional time he sought from parliament to decide on the issue. The other, which is a development that comes if the first option is not tenable, would be to conduct either new re-elections or by elections in place of those who have not taken up their seats. Meanwhile, the PM's next report is expected eagerly by residents as it may usher in the final decision on the issue.