This Day (Lagos)
12 March 2006
analysis
Lagos — The geo-political North has been facing their worst political problem since the exit of their legend Sarduna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello. Ike Abonyi examines the happenings since the third term debate began and wonders if today's northern leaders can stand up to the elephantine task by rejecting third term.
The last Public Hearing organised by the Joint Committee of the National Assembly on the amendment of the 1999 Constitution has indeed thrown up the vulnerability of all the geo-political zones in the country.
The outcome of the Public Hearing clearly shows that none of the geo-political ethnic area enjoys the so-called political homogeneity that they often claim. Since the third term agitations migrated from hidden to open agenda, the geo-political North comprising 19 states in three zones of North Central, North West and North-East has continued to give the impression that its political oneness is not in anyway under any threat.
What perhaps gave impetus to such feelings was the vigour with which they began the anti-third term struggle and its apparent unity of purpose for power shift back to the area.
The House of Representatives members from the North began it all when it formed a forum of representatives from the North with the irrepressible ANPP legislator, Hon. Victor Law as the leader.
The well attended forum that attracted who is who in the politics of the North including the former military Head of State, Major General Muhammadu Buhari and Vice President Atiku Abubakar. The meeting was a kind of riot act to the rest of the country especially third term campaigner that the geo-political area is focused and determined to take its destiny in its own hand.
The meeting resolved in a tough communique that it would not even allow the bill for the amendment of the constitution to be entertained at all. Members of the Upper House under the umbrella of Northern Senators' Forum followed up by organising an equally well attended meeting aired live by the national television - the Nigeria Television Authority (NTA) in Kaduna, the Northern seat of power. It was obviously the biggest gathering of northern political leaders since the return to civil rule in 1999.
After the public show, THISDAY gathered that all the 57 senators from the area entered into an executive session and the issue of third term was lavishly and sincerely discussed. Both pro and anti-third term lawmakers were given the opportunity to defend their position and in the end, only about four out of 57 senators from the area signed to support third term while others signed against it.
The mainstream socio-political organisation of the area, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) led by Chief Sunday Awoniyi also staged series of opposition pressure to demonstrate the oneness of the North.
Buhari who indeed is the only former Head of State not willing to be on the fence, also carried his campaign to the National Assembly where he met with some legislators on the matter. Even the Middle Belt leaders met in Abuja and brought the former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon to deliver a keynote address where he advised against third term and even drew the attention of pro-third term crusaders to the fact that history is not in their favour.
Northern Governors' Forum also met in Kaduna and restated their opposition. Forum of Speakers of State Houses of Assembly in the Northern states also met in Minna, Niger State and stressed their opposition to third term.
With all these, one could easily say that the hurdle for third term may be too high for the anticipated breakthrough of its proponents.
But since the subject is politics which makes strange bed fellows and which Karl Marx explains as from each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs, some waters have passed under the bridge to the extent that the seemingly cohesive North is now battling to remain intact.
The last Public Hearing was all that was needed to break the carmel's back and expose the dummy called political North. Even the North-west largely controlled by another party, the ANPP, could not resist the juicy temptation of third term, but thank God for some principled persons like Governor Ibrahim Shekarau of Kano State.
In the North-East where Vice President Atiku Abubakar hails from, the picture is even more pathetic as Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe and Taraba dumped him for whatever gain that might be there-in in the third term. The North Central through Benue, Niger and Plateau provided some principled positions but were dwarfed by the "Garrison Commander" role of the Nasarawa State Governor Abdullahi Adamu who did not want to beat about the bush as to where he belongs in a glaring bisect northern polity.
If the Northern state governors appear divided on the third term issue, the picture is perhaps worse with the legislators from the area.
The situation is forcing political watchers to query the whereabouts of the hitherto highlighted northern oneness. The South had all along received the bashing from political analysts for being perceptually incohesive thereby making the geo-political area politically subservient to the North.
While the South had hinged their inability to agree to the weight of the two major ethnic groups in the South-Igbo and Yoruba, critics have dismissed it, pointing at the degree of both ethnic and religious diversity in the North.
But this third term project appears to be rubbishing all that as it is now very difficult to know what and who are Northern interests.
Deputy Senate President, Ibrahim Mantu who has been very conspicuous in the third term project is himself a Northerner and he continues to argue that his position is in the interest of the geo-political area.
Nigerians are waiting to see what becomes of the geo-political North if it fails in this struggle. If the third term scales through the National Assembly where the North is in the majority and has the numerical strength to frustrate it, then it would be the biggest political blow to the area. If the third term scales through, it would mark the beginning of the demise of all that the northern political legend, the late Sarduna of Sokoto, Sir Ahamadu Bello lived and died for, building one strong and united North.
If third term scales through in today's National Assembly, it means the end of the northern dominance in the nation's political space.
If the late Sardauna could withstand and march the prowess of the late first president of Nigeria, Dr. Nnamdi Azikwe and the dexterity of the Yoruba strongman, the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo to hold the North together for common interest, it would be a shame for today's northern leader if they fail to stand up when it matters most.
What is very glaring and perhaps disquieting is the fact that if third term scales through, it would be due to the self-centredness of our legislators because the people whom they represent have in a very uncumbered way demonstrated their position even in the orchestrated and stage-managed forum as the Public Hearing.
It is easy if not guided by principle and God to ignore the will of the people but its repercussion is usually far reaching and often unbearable. If third term is a cog in the nation's political wheel today, it is because in 2003, the nation through a select leadership set aside the will of the people which was clearly and unequivocally stated through the ballot box. Allowing third term is yet another form of extending that subjugation on the Nigerian people.
As Nigerians and indeed the global community wait and look up to our legislators on this vexed issue, it may help leaving them with this great saying of the great former British Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill : "Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its commonwealth lasts for a thousand years, men will still say: this was their finest hour."
Will this be the finest hour for the North in this struggle to join the rest of the progressive democrats to defeat the reactionary forces? Will the legislators after voting to defeat third term, beat their chest that day to say like Churchill "this was our finest hour?" Only time will tell which side of history they want to belong to.
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