John Nwokocha, Assistant Editor
19 March 2006
BARELY 48 hours from today, Nigerians residing in all parts of the country would submit themselves to officials and representatives of the National Population Commission (NPC), to be counted, as the 2006 census exercise eventually takes off. In short Tuesday, March 21 is the commencement of the six-day census. Long before the final decision to kick-start the exercise controversies had greeted the headcount and housing census right from initiation stage. These controversies ranged from format to logistic. And with that the NPC kept rescheduling the take off date. In point of fact, the issues involved in the controversies were quite fundamental and even sensitive and called for mature handling. Take for instance, the one that concerns religion and ethnicity. When the news filtered in Nigerian ears that the 2006 census had no room for ethnic origin and religion, many a keen observers were quick to condemn the exercise yet to be conducted, as it were at the time.
Many religious leaders of note opinionated over the development and called on the NPC to go back to the drawing board. Some actually threatened a boycott unless there was inclusion of religion and ethnic origin. But beside religious bodies, the South East geo-political zone for once was unanimous over the issue. Dr. Sam Egwu had said "this matter becomes particularly touchy for the Igbo if you take into account the fact that they are everywhere in Nigeria.
As a matter of fact, their leaders threatened to boycott the headcount. This was the politically charged atmosphere as at last year. However, governors of the South Eastern states had to recant to the utter dismay of their people. The governors, particularly, Dr. Chimaroke Nnamani of Enugu state and his Ebonyi state counterpart, Chief Egwu, became the official spokespersons who now had the onerous task to convince their people why this items (ethnicity) should not matter. That was in addition to the media hype being mounted by the federal government to compel the citizens to subscribe to the format with the government had settled for. For indeed, the decision to do away with the questions on ethnic origin was taken during one of the National Council of State meetings. While the debate over these issues in public domain generated much emotions, from the North came Alhaji Ahmed Makarfi with a threat to mobilise his people to boycott the exercise should the NPC provide questionn aire on these issues. For those who argued in favour of data on ethnic groups, and religion, Makarfi's threat did not matter, as it did not deter them. Makarfi, Kaduna state governor had argued that the eventual publication of statistics on religion and ethnicity could deepen existing divisions along these lines, and even lead to social unrest.
But the Presbyterian Church of Nigeria, rose from its first quarterly meeting held last year in Abakaliki in Ebonyi state, and issued a communique which among other issues called on the federal government to see it as a duty it owe the citizens to conduct a successful census that would provide all the demographic data necessary for good planning. Whereas, pessimism reigned as to the ability of the NPC to conduct a controversy - free census, doubts about government's motive to exclude data on religion and ethnic groups still subsist.
In the light of this, the NPC boss, Chief Samaila Makama, had to deplore his propaganda machine to work and declared that: "since each religious and ethnic group would prefer numerical superiority over the other, it might be safe to ignore religion and ethnicity since there would be temptation by each group to explore ways to have an edge over the other." But Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), disagreed. CAN believes that the NPC is being persuaded by some religious interests to play down these key issues. So, CAN in a statement sometime last year warned the NPC to "correct this anomaly immediately it is critical and fundamental importance to us as a major player in the affairs of Nigeria and to all well-meaning Nigerians that these key elements of the census should and must not be left out. It is true to correct all the illusions imposed upon by previous dubious census figures."
Like the CAN, Anthony Cardinal Okogie, bishop of Catholic Church in Lagos believes; the federal government is already biased about the outcome of the census by taking a stand on ethnicity and religion. Joining forces with Okogie on this issues, Bishop Leonard Umunna, General Overseer of the Bible Life Ministry, stated: Why must the federal government always rob Peter to pay Paul.
He told Sunday Vanguard in an interview: " I'm aware that the political situation in the country is tensed and any negative comments could adversely affect the polity, if it is not the to the glory of God. I think that the organisers of the census are not serious whose interest is the government serving by exclusion of data on religion and ethnic origin? Here is a country where some people always claim that they are more in number than others as far as religion is concerned. In addition to that some ethnic groups claim to be more in number than other groups and based on their imagination or wrong figures they have been fed with and based on which they are getting government attention and patronage. So this is an opportunity for us to correct this irregularities. Now is the time to get it right, whether the past census figures were true or false." Can Makama give Nigerians a credible census? Only time would tell. However, judging from the faulty steps ab-initio, largely due to logistics, the commission's boss would have to work hard to ensure a successful census and through it gain Nigerian's confidence. It should be noted that the census was fixed for November 29 to December 3, 2005, and the exercise was estimated to gulp about N34 billion.
Besides, the contentious issues of religion and ethnic groups, public doubts stem from the failure on the NPC's part to conduct the exercise on the stipulated days, notwithstanding its elaborate preparations. Perhaps, it's the public that has refused to appreciate the problems faced by the NPC. For instance, the scheduled trial census, which should have been conducted in August last year did not hold. It was postponed twice. It was initially planned for July, but was deferred to August. As keen observers noted: "the trial census, a full dress rehearsal, was the real and final test of the preparedness of the NPC facilities for the main census. The trial census would furnish the enumerators necessary things they ought to know, i.e., census questionnaires." Unfortunately, past census outcome does not inspire confidence in the commission. As the exercise holds nationwide, the outcome of last census held in 1991, under the regime of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, is still a subject of th e controversy.
Nobody can say with confidence what Nigeria's population was in 1991, because the exercise was not conducted controversy-free. In fact, some communities went to the law court to contest the census figures. Many believed that the 1991 census result which indicated that there were more boys than girls was not true representation of the Nigeria population. The result had indicated that Nigeria population was 89.9 million. Nigeria experienced her first census in 1863. It was conducted in the colony of Lagos by the British colonial masters. Another census was conducted in 1911, subsequently, the exercise became a once in a decade project which is tailored after the United States model. So, in 1921, another census was held, that had been adjudged as the most comprehensive by analytic historians. In 1952, another census was held. There was another in 1962. That census was cancelled on ground of controversy that trailed it. The following year being 1963, another was held. The one of 1973 was cancelled in 1975, also because of controversy.
In Nigeria, census is being embraced as more of political weapon which is why from 1863 to 1991 the country's census were not devoid of controversies and deepen political acrimony Will census 2006 make any difference? A school of thought believes it will not, against the backdrop of exclusion of religion and ethnic origin in the form. It reasoned: Nigerians would want to know how the ethnic groups in Nigeria relate, in terms of their presence in the population of the country, also in terms of the representational politics of the country, that is what explains the clamour for good governance."
The school of thought holds: these are socio-economic indicators that would tell you which ethnic groups are increasing more, which ethnic groups are having access to more resources in terms of education etc. They do not just happen randomly, they are tied to this critical variables" It should be pointed out that the United Nations recommends that religion and ethnicity be included in census form. Census is part of the world system. In the advanced world, it's a tradition. Its objectives cannot be over-emphasised. But just to state a few of the purpose, it is vital to democracy. It also helps in national development planing hence, census data is a useful tool of research. But one contentious issue the 2006 census will settle is whether Nigeria's population is 130 million or 150 million.
Only last week, Mr. Frank Nweke Jr. Minister for Information and National Orientation, restated federal government's determination to conduct a successful census. He noted that the 1963, 1973 and 1991 census failed because of what he described as "divisive tendencies" by some people for their selfish reasons. He urged: "Let us not politicise it, let us see how we can use it to develop Nigeria." However, the average Nigerian believes that the divisive elements or forces are government officials, therefore, non other than the government-partisan politicians will frustrate its efforts in the event of which billions of Naira would have been flushed down the drains again, at the tax payers' expense.
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