Dakar/Brussels — Political actors in Cote d'Ivoire seem tempted by peace for the first time in the nearly four-year-old crisis but the next several months are crucial.

Cote d'Ivoire: Peace as an Option, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, says that peace could be within reach if the government continues to make progress toward presidential elections, meant to take place before 31 October 2006. International intervention, exhaustion of a population overwhelmed by its leaders' bad faith and a good start by Prime Minister Charles Konan Banny have primed the country for democratic elections. The government must now establish its presence throughout the divided country in order to simultaneously conduct the delicate processes of identifying who is a citizen and so entitled to vote and disarming and reintegrating ex-combatants.

Through dialogue and determination, the prime minister has recovered from violence that was meant to paralyse his government of national reconciliation when it entered office at the beginning of the year. However, the progress is far from irreversible.

"None of what must be done will be easy or cheap, and history cautions against too much optimism", says Crisis Group analyst Gilles Yabi. "The last few months have shown how volatile the situation remains. None of the political actors have yet given up their capacity for violence or shown that they are truly prepared to risk elections they are not certain of winning".

Prime Minister Banny should continue an inclusive dialogue with all political actors and sectors of society to help mobilise public opinion behind the government. He must also continue working with President Laurent Gbagbo, who may be tempted to delay elections in order to prolong his stay in power, and refer any intractable differences to the International Working Group. That body needs to resolve internal power struggles that are impeding its work, particularly between South Africa and France, give the government political support and keep the UN Security Council abreast of any obstacles that threaten to derail the peace process.

The government should embark on a nationwide campaign to inform the public of what needs to be done to identify citizens, disarm the belligerent forces and otherwise prepare for elections. The ministers of defence and interior need to regain authority over the security forces and the ministry of economy and finance over the state's financial institutions. Donors must give the government major financial support for all these steps.

The UN Security Council should apply targeted sanctions against spoilers before further violence occurs and reinforce the UN peacekeeping mission (ONUCI). The UN High Representative for Elections should be ready to take charge of the process of identifying citizens if the government fails to move ahead with that by the beginning of July.

"Plenty of opportunities remain for spoilers to sabotage the painstakingly resuscitated peace process", says Mike McGovern, Crisis Group's West Africa Project Director. "But if the government achieves concrete results in the next few months on citizen identification and demobilisation and reintegration, momentum for peace and reunification will be harder to stop".