Kigali — Last November the Great Lakes Centre for Strategic Studies (GLCSS) described a worst case scenario in both its weekly newsletter and in the press. This scenario had two pillars: first, it forecasted that armed groups like the FDLR, and ex-General Laurent Nkunda would not disrupt the elections, but instead they would remain a viable military force to gain a negotiated position after the elections. Second, GLCSS made a counter point that the real issue, that controlled the future of the DRC, was the establishment of good governance by the Kinshasa government.
The DRC is a primary lesson and an example for the international community that elections do not signal the end of a conflict. UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Marie Guehemo last week stressed, speaking broadly about peacekeeping efforts, that elections must be accompanied by a successful disarmament and demobilization campaign of the former combatants. This has not happened in the DRC.
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