Jonathan Katzenellenbogen
27 October 2006
Johannesburg — VIOLENCE is unlikely on Sunday when Congolese vote in the second round of presidential elections and provincial polls, but there might be clashes during the count and after the announcement of results two weeks later, Henri Boshoff, an analyst with the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, warned yesterday.
"I do not foresee that on election day we will have violence," Boshoff said at a briefing at the institute.
"There is a possibility of violence once the results are made known."
Boshoff, who spends a great deal of his time in the Democratic Republic of Congo, said that serious violence would remain a threat as long as President Joseph Kabila's personal guard, which has an estimated strength of 15000, and the militia loyal to his challenger, Jean-Pierre Bemba, which numbers about 6000, were not integrated into the Congolese army.
On August 20, the two militias clashed in Kinshasa, raising fears that Congo's democratic future could be halted. But a deal brokered by United Nations (UN) representative William Swing and SA brought about a disengagement of the forces of the two candidates.
That the shooting did not spread to other areas of the country and was quickly halted has bolstered the view of analysts that the elections will not descend into violence.
With Kabila having achieved close to 45% of the vote in the earlier round and Bemba about 20%, Kabila is expected to win Sunday's poll.
Both candidates have formed coalitions with candidates who were forced out of the race after the first round. Even with an estimated 7-million voters not having voted in the earlier round and doubts about the voting choice of some of the voters loyal to the candidates who are not running in this round, most analysts predict a Kabila win.
Uncertainty remains as to Bemba's future in the government in the event of a Kabila win. There is speculation that Kabila has promised the powerful post of prime minister in his next government to Antoine Gizenga, who obtained 13% of the vote in the last round.
Therefore, if Bemba were to agree to become part of the government, he is most likely to be offered a ministerial slot. Under the Congolese constitution that will come into force after the election, there is no position of deputy president, only that of prime minister, which observers say is in some respects far more powerful than that of president.
Boshoff said yesterday that the UN forces in Congo, Monuc, had substantially enlarged their presence in the capital, Kinshasa, as well as a number of provincial centres, to provide a show of force as a means of enhancing security in the run-up to the poll. He said it was particularly important that there not be a security vacuum after the elections.
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