Chege Mbitiru
30 October 2006
column
Nairobi — Chad's President Idriss Deby risks an ignominious exit with some help from another African leader. Worse, another Somalia-type nation or de facto French rule can't be ruled out. Yet African leaders are only wringing hands.
Within three days last week, Union of Forces for Democracy fighters entered three towns in Chad. They obviously organised in western Sudan.
The recently formed union comprises of the Democratic Revolutionary Council, the Union of Forces for Progress and the United Front for Change. The group's only known aim is Mr Deby's overthrow. After that, what?
Mr Deby's government acted and talked tough. Troops were mobilised to protect the capital, N'Djamena. Others headed east. General Bichara Issa Chadallah, the defence minister, said government forces were chasing the rebels back to Sudan.
Communication Minister Hourmadji Moussa Doumgor went head-in-the-sand way. He told Chadians to continue business as usual and promised a rout should the rebels - a repeat of April attack in N'Djamena. The international Red Cross said at the time around 200 people, including civilians, were killed in a day of fighting.
Media reports say the rebel force this time was much smaller than the April one. However, the rebels fired a SAM-7 surface-to-air missile at a French reconnaissance airplane. That's saying they mean business.
Mr Deby assumed the presidency after chasing from office President Hissene Habre, with Sudan and French intelligence support. He was an improvement. For the first time since the country's independence from France in 1960, Chad got a semblance of order.
However, Mr Deby consolidated power the wrong way. He belongs to the Zagawa ethnic group, a mere 1.5 per cent in a country of some 10 million people. He managed to even alienate Zagawa supporters and family.
Writing in BBC's Focus on Africa magazine in March, Mr Andrew Manley noted Mr Deby also lost trust in the wider region. This was due to a split with former backers, including Sudan. Cameroon, Mr Manley noted, fears Chad's potential for destabilising northern provinces.
Others the writer didn't identify are unhappy with Chad's involvement in Central Africa Republic affairs. An associate of Mr Deby's rebel opponent was recently seen in Niger's capital. President Blaise Campaore might be rethinking.
That's not all. Mr Deby wishes his son take power after him. But before that, he assured himself a third term through a referendum in June last year. In a move that might appear unrelated to power, the president sparked off a row with the World Bank, which bankrolled a 1,000 kilometre pipeline through Cameroon, over oil revenue after the country became an exporter in 2003.
According to the law, 80 per cent of oil revenue is to finance education, health and development. Mr Deby sought to shift some of the money to meet other needs. That's a clever way of looting the treasury. Well, Chad and Bangladesh shared the honour of world's most corrupt nations in Transparency International corruption perception index last year.
It's no co-incidence the rebellion picked momentum after the June referendum. In fact the rebels have clashed with Chadian troops, on average, once a month for a year.
The April attack aimed at denying Mr Deby a third term. Opposition parties refused to offer candidates in May's elections. The Roman Catholic Church and civic groups joined the boycott. All cited inevitable rigging. Eighty-one observers from African countries, invited by the so-called Independent National Electoral Commission, gave the polls a clean bill. Other observers wondered which elections those invitees observed.
A great deal has been made about Darfur conflict spillover into Chad. There's another side to the story. Mr Deby dragged Chad into the conflict. His own house wasn't in order, thus creating enemies. He also chose to support Darfurian rebels, especially his kith and kin, the Zagawas.
As a result, Sudan found it very convenient to return the compliment. Sudan does not only support Chad's rebels, protestations notwithstanding, but has also set Darfurian Janjaweed militia's loose in eastern Chad.
Mr Deby and Sudan's President Omar el-Bashir, a suspect guest at Mr Deby's inauguration ceremony after May elections, are the principal players in the conflicts.
There's an international consensus only a UN force can significantly contribute to ending the Darfur and, indirectly, Chad conflicts. Mr el Bashir will have nothing to do with a UN force.
A UN force would, of course, prevent Sudan's support to Chadian rebels. Indicators are that were the rebels to oust Mr Deby, they would squabble, Somalia style. France has 1,000 troops in Chad but their intervention would only serve French interests and lead to a de facto French rule.
Yet African leaders are doing nothing to discipline Mr Deby and Mr el Bashir. Ostensibly they lack leverage. Lame! They can sponsor a UN resolution against Deby and el Bashir.
Be the first to Write a Comment!
Copyright © 2006 The Nation. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). To contact the copyright holder directly for corrections — or for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material, click here.
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
