Martin Nkematabong
4 January 2007
Forces in and outside Somalia believe the present conflict is an opportunity to wage a jihadist war, after Iraq and Afghanistan.
The fighting which escalated in Somalia more than a decade today between the transitional government, based in Baidoa, about 140 miles northwest of the capital, Mogadishu, against Islamist fighters, who seized control of Mogadishu and most of southern Somalia has taken a complicated twist.
Current reports from Somalia suggest that government forces, backed by Ethiopian troops, have captured the Islamists' last stronghold of Kismayo. But the victory of the transitional government does not neccessarily guaranttee the end of war in that country. Islamist leaders say they have retreated for tactical reasons, and because they wanted to avoid further bloodshed. The Union of Islamic Courts backed these concerns yesterday warned they will start an insurgency. "We will kill every Somalian that supports the government and Ethiopians," said the Union's leader.
Before the Union of Islamic Courts took charge there was a power vacuum in Somalia. The courts merely took advantage of the vacuum left by the transitional government, partly due to its unpopularity within the residents of Mogadishu. Many believe the government now needs to include the clan leaders and the remnants of the Union of Islamic Courts to prevent the power vacuum opening up again-an act which may easily pave the way for the sworn insurgency.
That apart, the involvement of Ethiopian troops has increased the likelihood of terrorist attacks on the Horn of Africa. And, terrorism will surely bait the United States into Somalia- a country without a comprehensive security policy and indeed a machine to carry it out. More recently, some U.S. officials expressed concerns that Somali warlords are linked to al-Qaida. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Jendayi Frazer, said the Council of Islamic Courts is now controlled by al-Qaida cell individuals.
It is also said that the United States was funding one group of warlords earlier this year; that group was defeated. And Osama bin Laden actually went on record, and a tape was shown with him saying he welcomed the possibility of a fight against the United States being waged from Somalia's territory.
Evenso, there has been clear signs, either among jihadist forces outside of Somalia or some voices apparently inside the country, seeing the present state of affairs as an opportunity to open what could be termed a third front, after Iraq and Afghanistan, where that jihadist war could be waged.
Optimists, however, believe that what happens next will depend on what the transitional government does.
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