Omar Kalinge Nnyago
4 January 2007
opinion
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government, TFG, has finally established itself in Mogadishu, two years since it was forged by the international community in Kenya, out of warring factions that were deemed important at the time. The government has the Ethiopians to thank. Meles Zenawi unleashed his country's arsenal on the hapless Union of Islamic Courts, UIC, sending their fighters scampering.
UIC fighters are said to be entering Kenya. Kenya has responded by closing her common border with Somalia. Kenya has a large Somali population that is hard to ignore. Indeed, many of the UIC fighters have lived in Nairobi. The Americans strongly believe that the UIC is a version of the Taliban, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda.
UIC leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys is regarded by the US State Department as an international terrorist and is a wanted criminal. He denies all accusations, insisting that theirs is a home grown movement created to restore order in Somalia after several years of anarchy since the overthrow of President Siad Barre in 1991.
Indeed order they managed to restore in the six months they reigned over Somalia's cities, having put an end to the ruthless warlords that had held Somalia at ransom for years. America accuses the UIC of formenting terrorism and serving as a recruitment and training ground for terrorists. There are claims that hundreds of foreign fighters (Mujahideen) are fighting along with their UIC counterparts.
Beyond the celebrations and cries of joy from pro-American, pro-Ethiopian groups lies an uncertainty that can only be overcome by time. There are three issues here. One is the invasion by Ethiopia of a sovereign state (Some argue that present day Somalia does not qualify as a sovereign state), to install a government of its choice. Somalia has never trusted Ethiopia, gone to war in Ogaden and in a general sense, any Somali seen to be allying with Ethiopia is characterised a traitor.
The other issue is the difference in opinion on the role of the UIC. Many Somalis do not look at the UIC as a dangerous organisation. America's view the UIC as a terrorist organisation that fits well in the war on terror. Ethiopia, while wanting originality, is not fighting its own war. It is a proxy of the US.
The third issue is the increasing characterisation of all struggles in the Muslim world as Jihad, by Muslims themselves and also the vanguard in the war on terror, the US. The fear is that having been promoted to Jihadists by the US, the UIC and their friends are likely to win a lot of support from anti -American forces wherever they may be. This is likely to turn an internal struggle for self determination in Somalia into a global war. So even if it presently is not true that the UIC is cultivating terrorists, it will soon be.
Observers of recent military expeditions against Muslim countries are sceptical about the 'dramatic victory' of the Ethiopian Forces. When the Soviet Union entered Afghanistan in 1989, its superior force literally swept through Kabul, the Afghan capital and installed the puppet regime of Najibullah.
The Afghan resistance simply preserved itself for another day and retreated to the mountains. The Afghan war theatre was later to become a waterloo for Soviet forces, and gigantic military university for the Muslim world as volunteers from all over the Middle East Asia and Africa found opportunity in Afghanistan to acquire the much needed combat skills they desired.
University students applied for year offs, to go for training and Jihad in Afghanistan. This is when the Osama bin Ladens were born. The rest is history. Then, there were few African volunteers. Should Somalia become the (new) African Afghanistan as trends indicate, then this would complete the picture in a dramatic way.
Africa will grow its own brand of Jihadists by sending its young men to Somalia to learn to resist neo colonialists. With unemployment in the Horn of Africa at alarming levels, Somalia fighters won't have a lot of problems finding willing recruits.
This can be prevented. By Ethiopia pulling unconditionally and quickly out of Somalia as soon as the TFG assumes its proper offices, and by the United States dissuading itself from hoping to eliminate every Islamist on earth, and recognising that the UIC has a role to play in Somalia's future. It is a fact that the TFG has elements of the Somali warlords in its ranks. The UIC cannot see their former enemies and indisciplined war mongers take over control with the help of a foreign power.
East Africa ought to take a keen interest in developments in Somalia. Tanzania and Uganda have their own share of Somalis. But also, youthful Muslim populations who are not particularly happy with the way they are treated by their home governments. Uganda is in a unique position.
It has a Muslim dominated rebel force, the Allied Democratic Front, which is known to be hiding in Congo. A front in Somalia could be a very important breather and capacity builder to the force, that had been kept in check by the UPDF.
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