Nairobi — Conventional wisdom generously shared in bars, saunas, saloons and matatus is that if ODM wants to win the election, it must think outside the box. That the race for the party nomination should stop being seen as a straight fight between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka, that better prospects for victory are provided by another person altogether.

The story line goes generally like this: Raila Odinga fits the bill in many ways. A consummate politician that has shown courage, resolve and strategy, he however carries the tag of insincerity and dishonesty. Apart from the history of being a party alliance breaker, the story of the wheeling and dealing that led to the famous Kibaki Tosha declaration in 2002 paints him as an extraordinary opportunist.

Foreign minister Raphael Tuju apparently is not the only person with a story to tell about the real events that brought us the Kibaki presidency.

Culture and the Luo flamboyance aside, it is said also that he may not be as democratic as Kenyans would want once he gets into power. For all these reasons, in a straight fight for the presidency, President Kibaki's handlers would rather he faced Raila rather than Kalonzo.

On the basis of tribe

But the real issue in a country that defines its politics on the basis of tribe and numbers is that he can only guarantee for ODM the Luo vote which is paltry when compared to the Kikuyu vote.

Kalonzo. A good man, Christian. The ladies like his looks and polish. But those who claim close links say he is dogmatic and can also be quite undemocratic. I personally think that Kenya needs a significant dose of enlightened autocracy to realise its full potential, so this accusation is not material.

What is material is the belief that as the ODM man, Kalonzo can only guarantee the Kamba vote. We are talking only certainties here because there are too many unknowns.

William Ruto. His detractors say he is dishonest and that he has an unsavoury history. A good politician with a sharp nose for opportunity, he however is accused of greed for power not necessarily to build the country but for personal ends. However, the core reason he cannot be ODM's choice is that apart from the fact that he as yet does not command absolute loyalty within the Kalenjin, Kenyans will be very unwilling to elect another Kalenjin after Daniel Moi's 24 years at the top. His role this time will be to broker power.

The clever Kenyan analysts do not give Najib Balala a chance. They think that Uhuru Kenyatta would be the best President because he has the right mien - he thinks coherently, is articulate and has the right disposition as a younger, more encompassing Kenyan who does not display the stereotypical arrogance and condescending associated with some among the rich in his community.

However, he is Kikuyu and they have decided that it will have to be Kibaki this time. So, Uhuru will have to engage neutral and park his ambitions for now.

That leaves Musalia Mudavadi, a man that Micah Cheserem admires very much following their interaction in the finance ministry several years ago. Born into affluence, a Cabinet minister at 30, he can claim the experience and character to lead. His detractors say that he is indecisive. But his supporters say that Kibaki, too, was the most unlikely leader but look what he has been able to do. Sentiment aside, the numbers game make him the most potent of the ODM pack. His nomination will immediately congeal the expansive - Cyrus Jirongo says there are 2.4 million of them -- Luhya vote behind him.

Musikari Kombo and Jirongo will rally behind him because all the Luhya want, like all Kenyan communities, the presidency. Musalia represents the least objectionable alternative to most of the other communities. He is the one candidate who Kibaki would not want to face.

But the same Kenyans in bars, saunas, salons and matatus will wistfully opine that the ODM luminaries are not thinking this way because Steadman numbers are telling a different story. The numbers are saying that Kalonzo and Raila are the main guys. And since numbers are not supposed to lie, especially when served up by experts, these two gentlemen believe that it must be them.

Achieve national objectives

It is also said that Musalia does not appear hungry enough for the job otherwise he would be asking for it with more passion. Obviously, he may hold a different view on this.

The moral of these debates is that perhaps it is time that the ODM leadership stopped the ego trips they seem set on and plotted for power as a team. If, like a Tanzanian friend told me in Dar this week, Kenyans are confronting tribalism and learning how to use it to achieve national objectives, then this is the moment to do that. He was referring to the famous picture of the ODM leaders locking hands and telling Kenyans they will stick together.

Not many Kenyans believe that Kalonzo or Raila will support the other when the one loses. The stark reality is that ODM may not survive the residual polarity that the fierce nomination will generate.

Perhaps there is real wisdom in this bar, sauna, salon and matatu talk that Kibaki's real challenge actually lies elsewhere.