Harare — CHINA. That one word, that one country, is at the top of everybody's mind. And it is not difficult to see why. With the world's fastest growing economy China, whose trade with Africa topped US$42 billion in 2005, is now indisputably a key player in the global economy.

Even the increasingly isolated Zimbabwe, whose friends are few and far between over an alleged democratic deficit by erstwhile key trading partners in the West, has also joined the crowded path to China which through its own admission attaches very little, if any, importance to the issue of human rights, the reason why -- to the chagrin of many human rights activists and democratic movements -- among China's allies are to be found odious regimes which ignore all values and international norms in their political behaviour.

Zimbabwe's propagandists and authorities have been telling all who care to listen that in China, Zimbabwe has found a friend not only flushed with cash but eager to lend too. They have even gone as far as trying to portray Zimbabwe as China's biggest friend in Africa. Yet nothing could be further from the truth, if what has happened over the past 12 months is anything to go by.

The Chinese President, Hu Jintao, is currently visiting Africa, a source of raw materials for China's over-heating economy. The tour, the second of his African visits inside nine months, will see him going to Cameroon, Liberia, Sudan as well as Zimbabwe's fellow SADC member states namely Zambia, Namibia, South Africa and Mozambique. Zimbabwe is not on the itinerary. In April last year, the Chinese leader visited Nigeria, Morocco and Kenya among other African countries. Once again, he avoided Zimbabwe. And as if that was not enough, in June 2006, the Chinese Premier, We Jiabao undertook a seven-nation African tour which took him to Egypt, Ghana, the Democratic Repblic of the Congo, Angola, South Africa and Tanzania. Zimbabwe was not part of that visit either.

As we said in our comment of June 22, 2006 titled All Good Words But . . . , whatever their reasons, the Chinese leaders' actions are even more perplexing in light of the fact that these African tours are widely seen as an aggressive diplomatic push for deeper bilateral relations of which Zimbabwe is supposed to be part of the equation. This is particularly so if the political posturing from both sides as regards the "solid" bilateral relations between Zimbabwe and China is anything to go by.

We do not want to risk speaking too soon. But, no matter how the Zimbabwean government sees it, the Chinese move is clearly intended as a deliberate snub on Zimbabwe. It speaks volumes about the significance the Chinese attach to their relations with Zimbabwe. What is increasingly clear is that the Chinese view Zimbabwe with the same suspicion as does the West. The only difference is that the Chinese do not say it. As we said in our comment alluded to earlier on, diplomatic niceties notwithstanding, just like the West, China is also avoiding Zimbabwean risks like the plague. This might be politically unpalatable. But it's a cold hard fact.

Predictably, the Chinese ambassador to Zimbabwe this week desperately sought to downplay his country's rapidly waning confidence in Zimbabwe seen through its unsettling lack of commitment to invest in the Southern African country. That is what diplomacy is all about. What else could he say? But from its actions the emerging economic giant's ominous message is loud and clear: steer clear of Zimbabwe and don't touch it with a barge pole, lest you pour money into the jaws of completely irrational policies. The Chinese do not believe, just like the fence-sitting Western investors, that Zimbabwe can uphold bilateral investment protection agreements and manage its economy to international standards. They have witnessed, in Zimbabwe, instances of the arbitrary violation of that which is fundamental to market economy and business confidence -- the law of property and law of contract. Thus the bogeyman of uncertainty is forever present.

And unless the government realises this, then all Zimbabwe will continue to get from the Chinese are good words of intent until such a time the situation in the country is deemed to have returned to normal. For now the Chinese will maintain a low level government-to-government contact with Zimbabwe just to keep the lines of communication open.

True, over the past couple of years Zimbabwe has signed many Memorandums of Understanding (MOU) with the Chinese. But how many of these have borne fruit? In any case these would have to be implemented on a purely commercial basis or else they will not be worth the paper they are written on. And there is the rub, which has seen many such an agreement collapsing. The doomed Libyan fuel deal is a case in point.