Addis Fortune (Addis Ababa)

Ethiopia: Fleeting Dreams At Half Time

Debates and Presentations during the 26th meeting of the Committee of Experts of the African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Development, at the ECA.

"All we need is to believe a little more in our capacity, to be the authors of our own fate, our own destiny and the possibility of deliverance from outside," Prime Minister Meles Zenawi commented at the 26th meeting of the Committee of Experts of the African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Development, under the theme of 'Accelerating Africa's growth and development towards meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)' at the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) on April 2, 2007.

It has been seven years since 180 member states agreed at the United Nations (UN) Millennium Summit in 2000, to help the world's poorest countries take significant measures towards a better life for their people. A framework for progress counting eight MDGs was derived from the Millennium Declaration adopted by these world leaders. The MDGs are time bound goals and targets ranging from halving extreme poverty and the spread of HIV/AIDS to providing universal primary education, all by 2015.

Recent assessments including the assessments prepared for this conference, around the halfway point for MDG completion, indicate that Africa is off target in achieving the goals by the set date. According to the Economic Report on Africa 2007 by the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), with only four countries recording an average real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of seven per cent or more during 1998-2006, few African countries are positioned to achieve the MDGs.

In recent years African economies have been growing at an average of more than five per cent a year and are forecasted to grow by 5.8pc in 2007, according to the recent assessments. The report indicated that the growth performance was under pinned by improvements in macroeconomic management in many countries as well as a strong global demand for African export commodities, particularly crude oil, metals and minerals.

The scaling up of target investments in key sectors of each economy is necessary for sustained growth. According to Jeffrey D. Sachs, bridging the gap between what is required and what Africa receives is what will enable African countries carry out the public sector commitments to achieve the MDGs.

The European Union (EU) has promised to donate 0.7pc of its GDP in development aid by the year 2015 and to reach at least 0.51pc by 2010. The G8 promised to double the aid flows to Africa from 25 billion a year in 2004 to at least 50 billion in 2010. If all commitments are actually carried out, the financial capacity and framework to allow countries to make investments in the four sectors of health, education, agriculture and infrastructure will exist.

"Aid will not help if African countries do not clean their houses first," Leonce Ndikumana, chief economic analyst at the ECA told Fortune. According to him the MDGs are achievable only if African countries break from business as usual and are more creative.

Ethiopia has declared that it will follow the 'developmental state' model to be able to achieve the MDGs. Some areas such as education, health, gender issues and GDP growth show clear promises of achievement for the country by 2015. However, the notion of the developmental state is in direct opposition of the Washington Consensus which rejects the significant role of the state in national development as a thing of the past that has miserably failed.

Economists seem to agree in developing a national multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary mobilisation for the development of the private sector in Ethiopia. Achieving the first goal of MDGs, reducing poverty and hunger, will have a cascading impact on the other seven goals exploring the possibilities of developing and instituting special agro-industrial zones.

"Poverty reduction will remain a challenge as GDP growth will not automatically translate into human development," Constatinos Tesfu Berhe, an economic expert, told Fortune. "But we have to go beyond Agricultural Development Led Industrialisation (ADLI) in developing commercially viable agricultural projects and the human qualities that drive the management engine," he added.

According to the Economic Report North Africa recorded the highest development rate followed by Southern Africa, while Central Africa and East Africa experienced a slight decline in economic growth rate. West Africa had the greatest decline in GDP growth.


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