Lagos — If the Wizard of Oz had had the gift of the three astrologers from the East, who came to pay homage to the new born child in Bethelhem, we would have asked him to look into the stargazing ball and tell us if Matthew Aremu's parents were right in the choice of his names. Couldn't David have fitted more appropriately into the first name choice rather than Matthew? Between Matthew and David, the similarities pale into insignificance. Whereas one was a commoner who made good to be a disciple of the Master telling the world of a far flung island of bliss, the other was also a commoner promoted to a General, a mighty man of valour, a king greatly favoured and loved by God even in the midst of sins for which ordinary men were hardly left to go unpunished. This God, if one could be spared of blasphemy, showed so much favouritism to his beloved David that many wondered how right this could be.

On a few occasions however, Jehovah mildly rebuked David, when he coveted and appropriated Uriah's wife and sent the man to the battleground to die. Another time He told this beloved one bluntly: "You would not build the modern house of Jehovah because your hands are filled with blood." Perhaps, President Olusegun Obasanjo apart from inheriting some of the great traits of David the son of Jesse could be compared to Dido the Greek general on whom fell the duty of rebuilding the ancient and historical monument after the capitulation of Ulysses and the conquest of the nation state by its enemy. He lamented about his earthly woes and the thorns on his path entreating that he be given the power to re-build the great nation. Which he did and was received into the immortal hall of the gods.

Here is our own Dido imbued with the blessings from the House of David. Consider the similarities. Born without a silver spoon. Apologies to Eddie Iroh. He rose from ordinary circumstances, from grass to the dizzying heights of a war general that fought and conquered many times. Like David, our president was sent on sabbatical to learn the secrets of the Kheri Hebs, to acquire gnosis or rare knowledge not ordinarily made available to mortal man. Forget about the so called imprisonment. He went on sabbatical, in communion with the Almighty, where he received tutorials about how to stand Nigeria once more on the moral high ground. Remember David was in the bush in attunement with nature under the guise of tending to sheep and oxen. That was his sabbatical when he was receiving instructions from the heights just like Moses when he was initiated into the mysteries of Egypt for a purpose before Pharoah declared him a persona non grata.

Dido returned as an incarnate of Matthew Aremu who had been soaked in the blood of David's blessings. For tell us of that man in Nigeria who has been ruler of this great nation twice as much for 12 years? How many soldiers received the surrender flag after such a bloody war between brother and brother? How many heads of government have reigned without soldiers disrupting the peace? And like David who was adjudged to be one of the richest in the world, how many Nigerian leaders had such enormous wealth that passed through this administration in eight years? The basket of blessings that came through this path is so enormous, so overwhelming that it is beyond comparison. Had the Economist predicted our latter glory correctly, it could not have essayed that that the party was over for Nigeria in 1988.

Could our president have been called to rebuild our country, make it modern and assume the appellation of father of modern Nigeria? May be. Did he succeed or is there a Solomon waiting to build the house of God because David's hands symbolically speaking, are filled with blood?

It is for the reader to discern but how would history place a leader who has institutionalised election rigging as a cultural and traditional way of life of our people? Every December in Igboland, people troop to the village squares to listen to the proposition of the elders, and these propositions are openly debated and whatever seems offensive to the culture of the people is thrown out of the window of the People's Parliament. Now we are told it is cultural for elders to meet and decide who should be presented as dinner for the next meal and because it is culture it must not be challenged. In Yorubaland, the installation of an Oba just like in the ancient Benin Kingdom, is done through institutionalised family inheritance, not by selection of any family that emerges. Ditto for the north and even in many parts of the east.

Then look at the revival of the Public Order Act in a reverse form by the Inspector General Sunday Ehindero and the loss of lives that have resulted, the many unresolved murders in the land made more visible and offensive by the case files of the likes of Bola Ige, Marshall Harry, Chief Dikibo and the many ritual killings that have become our way of life. Nigeria has descended into savagery and the cannibalism of the cave man at a time going to the moon is becoming unfashionable to the modern world. Security of life cannot be guaranteed with a widening gulf between the haves and have nots. Albert Camus author of The Fall, wrote in 1939 regarding the atrocities of Adolf Hitler and his allies: "The reign of beasts has begun." Hitler at that time became the measure of an anti-people movement, a measure of individual evil not only because of the carnage involving the extermination of six million Jews but also as a seepage of evil across borders. To many, this picture of Hitler has been fully exhibited by our police force and security agents in their bid to please Big Brother.

While the government fought bribery and corruption with one hand, it encouraged as our culture the principle that indeed the only rules are that there are no rules. With this theory, it is possible to close one eye when a camel is passing through the eye of the needle and kill a fly with a sledge hammer simply because a rule has been broken.

Whatever our misgivings at this point, however, there are people in this country as well as historical antecedents, that remind us that revolutions are messy affairs that can go on and on for years with climax after climax before a stable new regime is finally established. But along the way, they pass distinct turning points at which it becomes clear that the old order is gone beyond any hope of resurrection and the future's possible shape, however, vague and tentative, comes into view. Could this be true of our own legacies, the fight to establish a true democratic structure, a country of equal opportunities, ruled by good leaders who are discovered by an electoral process that throws up only the best materials available? In any case what are we revolting against? Are we dragging our national psyche through some sickening eternity, waiting for the first blurry outlines of what might turn out to be a move to replace the old order?

Whereas some people believe that the President may after all be unwilling to just disappear into the pages of history without mortally wounding whatever little achievements that have come his way, others beg to differ advising that the president in spite of his failures in whatever direction should not be written off in a hurry. And the first in that order is Mr. President himself who has told us we would miss him dearly in many ways. Either way our historical antecedents give us cause for cheer!

While seeking a soft landing for Mr. President, it is important to anchor this against the background of his milestone achievements at home and abroad. Of particular worth are his economic reform programmes, which in a short space, have made remarkable strides that have attracted laudable commentaries from even those unwilling to accommodate his political philosophy.

Realising that the president's first term was not maximally fine tuned to witness an economic drive that could pick speed during this second term, the desire to move away from the ennui of economic activity paid off when the president assembled a team of young technocrats rather than his cronies to fill important offices, which could be steered by proactive and upwardly mobile professionals with the right exposure and vision.

The blue print for the country - the National Economic and Empowerment Development Strategy (NEEDS) - has become the mantra, a reference point of achievement for the Obasanjo Administration. Unlike General Babangida's Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), NEEDS has shown that well packaged projects followed faithfully, can bring about a turn around in the life of a people. Whereas SAP could have been a sound economic reform package, it was dead on arrival because the drivers lacked the willingness and discipline that characterise the execution of a reform project. With a combination of fiscal discipline and the right team, the Obasanjo administration began to give hope to a country that was hitherto pariah in the global village.

Beyond all of these fiscal achievements, history will remember the man against the background of the moral and spiritual institutions he left behind. And since these institutions like monuments signpost a people's way of life, their legacies and religion, so also those facades that have created a huge remove from our desires to manifest these traits will form the issues at the court of history. Then we shall ask how Mr President has helped to add or remove to the building of a modern Nigerian nation state.

Only then shall we revisit without rancour which of our leaders helped to advance the course of modern Nigeria and which of them fits into a father figure for the nation. It must not be foisted on the nation for only history can decide.

Just as the case of Dido and David were decided by historical antecedents, so also would that of Matthew Aremu be decisioned long after he would have left for the island of judgement of which the other Matthew talked about.

Promises! Promises! Promises!

Tunde Rahman in this piece reviews the promises made by President Olusegun Obasanjo in his inaugural speech in 1999 against the delivery by the administration on the promises

Backtrack to 1998. The military regime of General Abdulsalami Abubakar which had come on the scene following the sudden demise of the military dictator, General Sani Abacha, was coming to an end and there was a need for a national figure that can pull the country together again to mount the saddle. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, the Balogun of Owu in Ogun State, had just been released from jail where he had been clamped by the Abacha junta and pardoned for alleged complicity in the phantom 1995 coup. His Ota farm soon became a Mecca of sort as former military leaders and politicians were falling head over heels to ask him to offer to lead the country once again. Obasanjo was seen by the Northern military and civilian intelligentsia as eminently qualified to lead the country again. He was seen as a friend of, if not an acolyte of the North. He had the singular honour of being the first military leader to voluntarily hand over power to a civilian government in the country.

Indeed, many saw Obasanjo as perhaps the only one at that point in time that could pull back the country that seemed headed for the precipice. He was seen as a messiah of sort. It would seem as if Obasanjo too saw himself as one. For when he eventually agreed to run the 1999 presidential election, it was a well-crafted declaration speech that appeared like an acceptance speech after an electoral victory and sounded like the decision to run was not his own will but the will of those who felt he should come and save the country. It was at a news conference in his Ota Farm on November 3, 1998. Obasanjo titled his speech- "The Challenge of Service." He began this way- "Let me begin by paying tribute to those who have kept alive the debate as to whether I should or should not, make myself available to contest the presidency of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the forthcoming elections. Many notable personalities called on me at home, individually and collectively, many telephoned and others wrote, urging me to be ready to serve our country again. Some, I must add, expressed contrary views. I believe however that both sides, those for and those against mean well, and I thank them all.

"I have weighed every advice, appeal and caution very coolly, calmly and carefully, meditating, reflecting and praying, it is apparent from the numerous counsel and exhortations offered me in private, and the equally interesting and stimulating arguments presented in the mass media, including those on the internet, that the matter has assumed such weight and importance far greater than my humble self. But it has come to the point that I can no longer delay a decision. I am here to inform you that I have decided to offer to serve our country again," he said. Obasanjo went on to contest for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential ticket at its primaries in Jos, Plateau State and won, defeating the hitherto frontrunner in the party's presidential race, former vice president, Dr. Alex Ekwueme, among others. Like many discerning minds knew before then that his election was already a fait accompli, Obasanjo also won the February 27, 1999 presidential election. And on May 29, 1999, donning a white flowing Babariga and with his deputy, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, in tow in similar white attire, Obasanjo stepped forward to take the oaths of office and allegiance to the country and the constitution. That done, General Abdusalami, the erstwhile military head of state who piloted the transition programme, quickly stepped behind Obasanjo, thus signifying the commencement of a new democratic dawn. It was a unique moment to behold in the life of the nation. The joy and excitement of many Nigerians who had been yearning for the return of democratic rule was palpable. Their hopes and expectations were as high as mountain Kilimanjaro.

And then Obasanjo stepped forward to make his inaugural speech as President, a speech he appropriately titled -"The New Dawn." Indeed, right from his November 3, 1998 speech where he accepted to run for the presidency, it would appear that Obasanjo was in love with catchy and weighty titles for his speeches. Apart from that November 3, 1998 speech which he christened-"The Challenge of Service," his statement on February 28, 1999 following his victory at the presidential election was titled "Nigeria Will Rise Again," and then the "New Dawn" of May 29, 1999.

In his "New Dawn," the inaugural speech, President Obasanjo said his election was what God had ordained for him and Nigeria. "Twelve months ago (then)," he began, "no one could have predicted the series of stunning events that had made it possible for democratic elections to be held at the Local Government level, the state level, and culminating in the National Assembly elections. Thereafter you, the good people of Nigeria, elected me, a man who had walked through the valley of the shadow of death, as your President, to head a democratic civilian administration. I believe that this is what God Almighty has ordained for me and my country-for my beloved country, Nigeria and its people." The President appraised the problems plaguing the country saying the entire Nigerian scene was very bleak that many would wonder where he would begin from. But he stated that he was not a miracle worker and that it would be foolish to underrate the task ahead. "Alone, I can do little. You have been asked many times in the past to make sacrifices and to be patient. I am also going to ask you to make sacrifices, and to exercise patience. The difference will be that in the past, sacrifices were made and patience exercised with little or no results. This time, however, the results of your sacrifice and patience will be clear and manifest for all to see."

President Obasanjo said he was determined to make significant changes within a year of his administration. "Together, we shall take steps to halt the decline in the human development indices as they apply to Nigeria. All the impacts of bad governance on our roads that are immediately removable will be removed, while working for medium and long term solutions."

He however made other far reaching promises to Nigerians. He first singled out corruption which he said was the greatest single bane of the country. Corruption would be tackled head-on at all levels, he said. "It (corruption) must not be condoned. This is why laws are made and enforced to check corruption so that society would survive and develop in an orderly reasonable and predictable way. No society can achieve anything near its full potential if it allows corruption become full-blown cancer it has become in Nigeria." President Obasanjo then promised that all the rules and regulations designed to help honesty and transparency in dealings with government would be restored and enforced. He also promised to restore the confidence of the citizenry in government saying he was aware of the widespread cynicism and total lack of confidence in government arising from the bad faith, deceit and evil actions of recent administrations. According to him, one of the immediate acts of his administration would be to implement, "quickly, and decisively, measures that would restore confidence in governance. These measures will help to create the auspicious atmosphere necessary for the reforms and the difficult decisions and the hard work required to put the country back on the path of development and growth."

President Obasanjo itemized some priority issues which he said his administration must deal with urgently. They included the followings-

- The crisis in the oil producing areas

- Food supply, food security and agriculture

- Law and order with particular reference to armed

robbery, and to cultism in our educational institutions,

- Exploration and production of petroleum

- Education

- Macro-economic policies, particularly exchange rate management etc

- Supply and distribution of petroleum products

- The debt issue

- Corruption, drugs, organized fraud called "419"

activities, and crimes leading to loss of lives, properties and investment,

- Infrastructure-water supply, energy,

telecommunication, ports, airways, national shipping, Nigerian railways, etc

- Resuscitation of the manufacturing industries

- Job creation and creation of conducive environment for investment

- Poverty alleviation

- Housing, both civilian housing programmes and

barrack refurbishment and new construction for the armed forces and the police

- ECOMOG

- Health services

- Political and constitutional dialogue

- Women and youth empowerment.

"In pursuit of all these priorities, I have worked out measures which must be implemented within the first six months," he said.

He also promised that he would appoint good men and women of proven integrity and record of good performance to help him in his cabinet. Hear him in that speech, "I appreciate that the quality and caliber of the members of my cabinet and top appointments will send a positive or negative signal to Nigerians and international community as to the seriousness of the administration to make salutary changes."

He promised to introduce a code of conduct for ministers and other public offices as well as put in place other measures for individual and collective self-control and self-discipline of ministers and other public officers. On political reconciliation, the President said he was determined to stretch his hand of fellowship to all Nigerians regardless of their political affiliations. "I intend to reconcile all those who feel alienated by past political events and I will endeavour to heal divisions and to restore harmony we used to know in the country.

On the crisis in the Niger-Delta, he said a bill would be forwarded within weeks of the inception of the administration to the National Assembly, for a law providing for 13 per cent derivation in Revenue Allocation to be used for ecological, rehabilitation, infrastructural and other developments. "A competent group will be set up immediately to prepare a comprehensive Development Plan for the Niger Delta Area. Dialogue will be held at all levels with the real representatives of all sections for mutual understanding. The responsibility and initiative for resolving the crisis rests with the Government," he said.

On ECOMOG, he said Nigeria had over the years played a very active role in the body for the restoration of peace in Liberia and Sierra Leone. "Our national interest requires the establishment and maintenance of peace and stability in the West African sub-region. Turning to external relations, President Obasanjo said he would pursue a dynamic foreign policy to promote friendly relations with all nations and will continue to play a constructive role in the United Nations, the Organisation of African Unity and other international bodies. He said his firm resolve was to restore Nigeria fully to her previous prestigious position in the comity of nations.

President Obasanjo also promised to ensure professionalism within the military saying the incursion of the military into government had been a disaster to Nigeria and the military over the years. "As a retired officer, my heart bleeds to see the degradation in the proficiency of the military. A great deal of reorientation has to be undertaken and a redefinition of roles, retraining and re-education will have to be done to ensure that the military submits to civil authority and regains its pride, professionalism and traditions," he said. He also said he would ensure harmony within the three arms of government. "It is my resolve to work harmoniously with the legislature and judiciary to ensure that Nigerians enjoy good and civilized governance. I am also determined to build a broad consensus amongst all parties to enhance national harmony and stability and thus ensure success in the long struggle ahead," he said.

President Obasanjo ended his address stressing that Nigeria must change its ways of governance and of doing business in order to ensure progress, justice and harmony.

He was to repeat most of these lines and promises in his subsequent speeches particularly at the inauguration of the National Assembly on June 4, 1999 and on June 7, 1999 when he put in place a panel on review of contracts, licenses, awards, approvals and appointments by the Federal Government headed by an industrialist, Dr. Christopher Kolade.

All said, has the President kept his promises? Has he kept faith with Nigerians? Has he matched his words with actions in the past eight years that he has been on the saddle? What does his scorecard look like? All these will be examined in the next few pages.

The President as the State

As President Olusegun Obasanjo prepares to hand over to an elected successor, Yusuph Olaniyonu examines how this soldier turned politician has impacted on the politics of the country in the past eight years

Former military ruler, General Ibrahim Babangida during his reign once warned his political opponents that as a military officer, he was trained to dominate his environment. Though Babangida's statement was made more than one decade ago, it has become a useful guide to understanding the philosophical underpinning of the politics of another general who has now found himself as the nation's number one politician. As a four-star general who has now found himself in the political arena, President Mathew Olusegun Okikiolakan Aremu Obasanjo has in the past eight years sought to dominate the nation's political arena and its institutions at all cost and at great cost to the core principles of separation of powers between arms of government, checks and balances, rule of law and development of the political parties as vehicle for seeking power in a democracy.

President Obasanjo showed his style of politics very early in the process that led to the present republic. Immediately after his emergence as Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate in Jos, party leaders wanted him to choose Alhaji Abubakar Rimi as his running mate. But Obasanjo refused and said he would only take his choice candidate. He ended up choosing Abubakar Atiku who had helped him with the leg work and finances for his victory at the primaries. Thus, from the beginning, he started dominating the party and ensuring that his wishes prevailed over that of the party.

The second move was just a few days after his swearing-in as president. Obasanjo became involved in the issue of who would be senate president, a decision which ought to be taken by the senators. After the party leadership unsuccessfully persuaded former vice president, Dr Alex Ekwueme to take the seat, Obasanjo refused to allow the emergence of Dr Chuba Okadigbo as senate president. He opposed Okadigbo based on advise that if Okadigbo became number three man while Atiku was number two man, then he had lost the administration to Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) wing of the PDP led by Atiku. Immediately, Obasanjo's hench men like Chief Tony Anenih swung into action. They sponsored the candidacy of Chief Evan Enwerem and spread a lot of money to sway support for his candidacy. That incident began the president's penchant to control the National Assembly and the frequent use of money to influence the emergence of the legislative leadership.

From that moment, the setting for constant legislative-executive bickering had been created. Okadigbo was later to have a running battle with the presidency. At a point, many thought the cold relationship was about to thaw when the president attended the opening of the senate president's official residence and had a dance with the wife. But alas, two days later, senators loyal to Aso Rock moved against Okadigbo and got him removed. That incident confirmed one aspect of Obasanjo's politics. He applies the raw power game rule of not condoning dissent and giving room for the opponent to survive. The president believes in applying military tactics to the political game. Lure the opponents to sleep, let them feel the animosity is over and hit them in their soft underbelly. From Anyim Pius Anyim who replaced Okadigbo to Adolphus Wabara who was senate president from 2003 to 2005, the presidency always influenced the emergence of the senate leadership. Except in the case of the incumbent, Ken Nnamani. A similar situation applies in the House of Representatives.

This is one kind of politics which has compromised the principle of separation of powers. It is also one policy which has made the PDP a consistent opposition to itself despite its overwhelming control of the National Assembly and the presidency as well as state assemblies and governorship.

In his relationship with the judiciary, the president had been subtle in his politics of domination. Apart from the notorious manner in which court orders were either disregarded or twisted, there were two or three actions directly aimed at demonstrating the domination politics. For example, the allocation of official quarters of the Chief Justice of Nigeria to the Vice President and the recent pasting of a copy of a demolition order on the premises of the Federal High Court in Abuja by the Federal Capital Development Authority (FCDA) were seen as attempts to dominate the judiciary. So also is the declaration of public holiday on the eve of the last governorship election when the Supreme Court was billed to decide on a case concerning the qualification of Vice President Atiku Abubakar to participate in the presidential election.

But one can fully appreciate the Obasanjo politics looking at both his activities within his party, the PDP, and his relationship with rival political parties as well as geo-political groups. Here, the president is not only a raw fighter but has also proved to be an adept, consummate and tactical politician. When he came to power, it was obvious to him he had won the presidency with a borrowed force. And like Machiavelli said, any prince who found himself in that situation must move swiftly to destroy those forces and replace them with his own troop. Unfortunately, these borrowed forces were also not the humble type . They ceaselessly reminded the president they brought him to power and that he lacked home base. This created an ego problem for Obasanjo. It brought the worst aspect of him as he ferociously moved against the forces of the PDM led by Atiku and the Social Progressive Party (SPP) led by Solomon Lar. First, he created his own political troop led by Anenih. Then, they moved to ensure that the national chairman was either a loyalist or he left office in ignominy.

The president and his political troop had after succeeding the Atiku scare at the 2003 PDP primaries decided to use the general election as a one -stop war of conquest. Thus, the election was used to take over the South-west zone and give the president a safe home base. Also, the election was used to render irrelevant in the political scheme of things regional groups like Afenifere, Arewa Consultative Forum and Ohanaeze Ndigbo, and to cut to size the Vice President who almost lost his home base to the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). After the election, the President decided to fully dominate the PDP. Fresh registration of members were organised and that was used to enervate the stronghold of those opposed to the tendency represented by the leader of the party, as the president is now known. The masterstroke forced so many foundation leaders of the PDP out of the party. Many of them are now cooling their feet in the Action Congress (AC). With the president's men now in charge of the party machinery at all levels, it was possible for the man to now shift attention to using the party members in the state and national assemblies for the extension of his tenure through the controversial constitutional amendment exercise.

This however proved to be a major failure of the domination strategy. It only proved the indomitable spirit of the Nigerian nation. The same spirit had been demonstrated in the hurried exit of Babangida in 1993 after he annulled the freest presidential election ever conducted in this clime.

In his relationship with the opposing parties, the president persistently and successfully subverted them. For the Alliance for Democracy (AD) which was the dominant party in the South-west zone, the president lured the governors elected on the party's platform, used them against their leaders and later got all of them to help in his re-election. But in the process, he ensured their hold on the South-west was destroyed and today, the president has achieved his age-long ambition to control the politics of the South-west zone.

In the ANPP, the president ensured that the governors are never really loyal to their party. Majority of ANPP governors are closer to and supportive of Obasanjo than PDP governors. All these schemes helped to give President Obasanjo a loose coalition of supporters who he can rally for support. This politics of domination was carried into the election period. The last general elections were so dominated by the President that he had tremendous influence in who contested in the various parties or not.This was achieved through the disqualification of some candidates and the EFCC's declaration that it would move against corrupt politicians who wanted to be elected into public office. Many potential candidates withdrew from the election to evade EFCC's hammer.

It, however, should be noted that the Obasanjo culture of total domination which we have demonstrated above is in fact the common phenomenon in the current dispensation. At every level of government, the chief executives are dictating what happens politically not minding whose ox is gored and how the plan is achieved. Even, Obasanjo's worse critics have at every opportunity displayed their belief in the philosophy of total domination of the political space.The culture of impunity and total domination is therefore the rule. Perhaps, President Obasanjo is only its symbol as the most senior political office holder in the land.

Under Obasanjo, the presidency however remains weak in playing the politics of propaganda. That is why his opponents, particularly, Vice President Atiku Abubakar had a field day in rubbishing him on the PTDF and other battles for the sympathy of Nigerians.

But in all, the president has etched his strong personality on the polity so much so that for a long time, the Obasanjo personnae may linger in our politics. Well, President Obasanjo amy also have a gameplan to ensure this. And that is why he has designed a scheme which will see him emerge as Chairman, Board of Trustees of the ruling party where party supremacy is also the cardinal rule. Well, the music may change sooner than expected. Because there is no certainty in the power game.

However, there are other areas outside the sphere of domination politics in which Obasanjo has affected the nation's politics in the last eight years. One of them is that he has ensured that he built a government in which political offices are widely spread among all the geo-political zones. He has built a corps of aides whose origin is all over Nigeria. Just as the opposition to him also has national spread. President Obasanjo also ran a civilian government which does not have to be looking across its shoulders in fear of military take-over.

As a four-star general, he was able to effectively subject the military to civil authorities such that with the litany of crisis there were no concrete fear of possible military coup detat.

Again, Obasanjo also ingrained the concept of generational power shift in the nation's power system. From the commencement of his second term in 2003, Obasanjo brought in young men and women into top government positions. Today, men and women in their early 40s are ministers, special advisers and head of top government institutions.

The generational power shift informed the decision to back a younger Umaru Musa Yar'Adua and Goodluck Jonathan for the presidency.

It should also be noted that Obasanjo as a matter of style prefers to give top appointments to children of prominent Nigerians, particularly actors in the first and second republic. Children or grandchildren of late politicians like Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, Late Chief Osuntokun, Chief Remi Fani-Kayode, Chief Ozumba Mbadiwe, Major Gen. J.T.U. Aguiyi-Ironsi, Alhaji Tafawa Balewa and Professor Wole Soyinka, Alhaji Abubakar Imam and General Murtala Muhammed.

Though this may be his own strategy of further gaining legitimacy, but it may also be his way of repaying the old nationalists for their national service. It is also a matter of style for the politician whose daughter, Iyabo is also going to be inaugurated as a senator of the federal republic.

A Different Democrat

By Kola Ologbodiyan

When President Olusegun Obasanjo was sworn-in on May 29, 1999, one of the planks of his key promises was that he would deepen democracy. But as he winds up his two-terms of four years each tenure, the multi-million naira question is whether he had lived up to this promise. For many Nigerians, he did not and reasons abound.

Not just that. During the swearing-in ceremony, the President also assured that he would work towards a harmonious relationship among the three arms of government namely the executive; the legislature and the judiciary. But a couple of days after this occasion, Obasanjo altered the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) calculations for the emergence of the late Senator Chuba Okadigbo as the Senate President and expressed preference for Senator Evans Enwerem.

At the end of the day, Enwerem emerged Senate President but this created instability in the Senate and generated a row between the legislature and the executive that lasted almost six of his eight years rule.

The president's next acid test in his determination to deepen democracy came during the first elective national convention of his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) during which Chief Sunday Awoniyi squared against Chief Barnabas Gemade for the chairmanship of the party.

At the end, Gemade, who was anointed by Obasanjo emerged winner through a process that can be described in any other manner except being fair. The process of electing the party's chairman worsened with each change of the party's leadership.

When Gemade sought re-election at the close of his two-year tenure, the President had become tired of his antics. Waiting in the wings to succeed the former Minister of Works and Housing was Chief Audu Ogbeh. Ogbeh, also a former minister, had a walk-over at the party's convention against Gemade.

But when Obasanjo became sick and tired of Ogbeh, he went to the national chairman's residence within the precinct of the Presidential Villa, had a meal of pounded yam and egusi soup with Ogbeh following which he forcefully demanded for his resignation letter as the party chairman.

With the ouster of Ogbeh, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, of Ali-Must-Go fame, was appointed as the national chairman of the PDP while the former Minister of Transport, Chief Ojo Maduekwe, to emerged the party's national secretary. Ali's choice was however automatic as the North Central zone presented him as a replacement to Ogbeh. This presentation was later ratified at a national convention.

Thereafter, the PDP embarked on reforms that were largely considered as the president's personal agenda. The PDP first commenced what it termed the re-validation of membership thus de-registering quite a number of the members of the party whose views were not in tandem with the position of Obasanjo or those perceived as unrepentant supporters of his deputy, Atiku Abubakar.

When the party completed the revalidation exercise, the stage was set for the extension of Obasanjo's tenure and the PDP hierarchy was effectively used to support the self-succession interest of President provided, as the party kept reiterating, the procedure followed the laid down rules guiding the amendment of the 1999 Constitution.

But Obasanjo's perceived retardation of democratic growth is not limited to his roles in the PDP. There were also recurrent allegations that the Presidency, under his supervision, overtly or covertly supported intra-crisis in other parties. Largely, this trend undermined internal cohesion of those parties and led to the emergence of new groups which further weakened the structure of opposition to the advantage of his own party, PDP.

Apart from the Shenanigans that characterised the political landscape, disrespect for the rule of law as well as constant flouting of court orders also took the front burner as Obasanjo and his party interpreted the Constitution as it suits them and their desires whereas the major landmark of any democratic state is the level of equality her citizens enjoy before the law.

For instance, when the Federal Government withheld the Lagos State local government funds because the state increased the numbers of its local governments from 20 to 57, not even the Supreme Court ruling which ordered the central government to release the fund was readily obeyed. And there are other cases like that.

The former governor of Anambra State, Dr. Chris Ngige, got every court orders required to reinstate himself into the PDP after his expulsion from the party but none of these court orders were obeyed by the Ali-led party.

Also, in the heat of the Anambra imbroglio, during which the security details of Ngige were withdrawn, despite court decisions asking then Inspector General of Police, Mr. Tafa Balogun, to restore the ousted governor's police details, the court orders were not obeyed by the Police.

Also, the Obasanjo years did not encourage competition as an ingredient of deepening democracy. In all the contests within the PDP or the National Assembly in the last eight years, the anointed candidate of the Presidential Villa always emerged either through intimidation of would be contestants or by overt support for a particular candidate using the seal of the Presidency.

This method was maximally deployed in the failed bid of Obasanjo to succeed himself, in office, by 'encouraging' the National Assembly to amend his tenure and those of the governors by an extra-term of four years.

This pursuit of extra term is largely believed to have been responsible for the inability of the PDP apparatchik to pursue the principle of deepening democracy and the entrenchment of the rule of law as perceived enemies of the third term project suffered political bruises.

No More Business as Usual

Perhaps, the most fundamental policy programme of the Obasanjo administration was its reform agenda, which was aimed at creating a private sector driven economy, changing the way government works and empowering the people through social service delivery. Lucky Fiakpa, Kola Ologbondiyan, Bukola Olatunji, Efem Nkang, Nnamdi Duru, Ndubisi Francis and Onyebuchi Ezigbgo present a sectoral assessment of the reforms

Banking Reforms

With benefit of hindsight, most Nigerians have come to regard the banking consolidation programmes of the out going administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo as one of the best thing to happen to the banking sector since independence.

yet it was one programme most bankers and indeed Nigerians saw initially as the death warrant for the banking sector and the reason was straightforward.

As at July 6, 2004 when Professor Charles Soludo, the Central Bank of Nigeria, (CBN) governor invited banks chiefs to his office in Abuja to brief them of the reform package that was to be unleashed on the sector, shareholders' funds needed to do banking business was just N2 billion. Even this figure was some Herculean task for most operators. Not up to half of the industry's operators had met that capital requirement as at that date. It was at this meeting that the governor announced the first leg of the banking reform programme requiring banks to shore up their shareholders' funds to a minimum of N25 billion or be shown the exit from the industry.

When Professor Soludo announced to the directors the new shareholders' funds for doing banking business in the country, many thought the end had come for them. In fact, not more than two or three banks at the time had shareholders' funds that were more than the statutory minimum capital requirement. It was against this backdrop that the bankers' fear was situated.

However, to brace up to the challenges of the new directive from the CBN governor, most banks that were hitherto shy of going to the capital market to raise funds soon found the market as the best source for such huge funds needed to beef up their shareholders' funds. All, with the exception of Equitorial Trust Bank together with the foreign banks, were the only ones that never took the capital market option. This went a long way to deepen the capital market as several equities were listed on the floors of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, NSE. The rush to the capital market on its own created some sort of awareness amongst Nigerians who for once saw the importance of investing in stocks.

As the December 31, 2005 deadline gets closed it became obvious that the whole of the 89 banking institutions in the country could not meet the new capital requirement. Many of them were therefore forced into merger and acquisition negotiations. Memorandum of Understandings were signed and aborted in search of new partners. At 12 midnight, December 31, 2005 the curtain was drawn and only 25 banks made the list. Of this number, only three - Ecobank, Guaranty Trust Bank and Zenith Bank were the only banks that emerged from the consolidation programme without a partner. The rest, except the foreign banks - Nigerian International Bank (Citibank), Stanbic and Standard Chartered - were either products of a merger or acquisition.

One good thing about the banking reform is the increased level of confidence the public now have for the sector. With all the banks parading shareholders' funds in excess of the statutory minimum of N25 billion, it is believed that it may not be too easy for any of them to just pack up like, it used to happen before the consolidation programme.

Apart from that, most banks are now involved in real banking instead of embarking in rice or sugar importation as it used to be. Before the banking reform programme, it was common place to see banks going into rice or sugar and sometimes cement importation. When they were not doing this, many were involved in other sharp practices like foreign currency round-tripping, dubious bank charges among other vices.

Lending activities were limited to commerce (buying and selling) mainly with the foreign banks having a field day in big ticket funding in the country. And this was to be expected.

With shareholders' funds of just N2 billion, there was no way banks could seriously be involved in big ticket funding, especially in the oil and gas sector and even the telecommunications sector where facilities go for billions of dollars.

However, with the new look Nigerian banking sector, a good number of the banks have been very daring staking huge funds in projects locally. The Obajana Cement Plant and the new Murtala Mohammed Airport local terminal are examples of big projects that Nigerian banks have demonstrated their ability to take on any project.

With the big shareholders' funds, Nigerian banks that were able to secure joint partnership with reputable foreign banks were for the first time allowed to manage some of the country's foreign reserves. This indeed was a great advancement for the sector as their ratings worldwide headed in the positive territory.

Another good fallout of the banking reform programme is the entrenchment of sound corporate governance in the system. The need for the practice of good corporate governance, which is a system by which corporations are governed and controlled with a view to increasing shareholders' value and meeting the expectations of the other stakeholders cannot be overemphsised. For the financial industry, the retention of public confidence through the enthronement of good corporate governance remains of utmost importance given the role of the industry in the mobilization of funds, the allocation of credit to the needy sectors of the economy, the payment and settlement system and the implementation of monetary policy.

In Nigeria, a survey, by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reported in a publication in April 2003, showed that corporate governance was at a rudimentary stage, as only about 40 per cent of quoted companies, including banks, had recognized codes of corporate governance in place. Specifically, for the financial sector, poor corporate governance was identified as one of the major factors in virtually all known instances of a financial institution's distress in the country.

Some of the noticeable weaknesses in corporate governance of banks in Nigeria included disagreements between board and management giving rise to board squabbles, ineffective board oversight functions, fraudulent and self-serving practices among members of the board, management and staff as well as overbearing influence of chairman or MD/CEO, especially in family-controlled banks.

Others included weak internal controls, non-compliance with laid-down internal controls and operation procedures, ignorance of and non-compliance with rules, laws and regulations guiding banking business, passive shareholders, poor risk management practices resulting in large quantum of non-performing credits including insider-related credits, abuses in lending, including lending in excess of single obligor limit and sit-tight Directors - even where such directors fail to make meaningful contributions to the growth and development of the bank.

To avoid some of these shortfalls, the CBN has come up with a set of Code of Corporate Governance Practices for Banks. Government direct and indirect equity holding in any bank shall now be limited to 10 per cent by end of 2007, equity holding of above 10 per cent by any investor would be subject to CBN prior approval. The code also separates the responsibilities of the head chairman from that of the managing director such that no one individual/related party has unfettered powers of decision making by occupying the two positions at the same time.

No one person shall combine the post of Chairman/CEO of any bank anymore and also the position of executive vice-chairman is no longer recognised in the structure. But perhaps more fundamental is that which states that no two members of the same extended family should occupy the position of Chairman and that of CEO or Executive Director of a bank at the same time.

The term 'extended family' refers to members of a nuclear family comprising the husband, wife and their siblings plus parents and brothers/sisters of both the husband and the wife.

With these reforms the government believes a much stronger banking industry would evolve.

Power Sector Reforms (1999-2007)

On assumption of office on May 29, 1999, the Obasanjo-led civilian administration met a power sector that was in a critical state with overall national capacity hovering precariously between 1,750 mega watt (MW) and 1,800MW.

At that time, most of the existing generating stations were operating well below installed capacity and were in dire need of complete overhaul and re-capacitation. There was then a biting need for new generating capacity to fill the existing gap in national electricity demand estimated at about 6,000MW. Apart from low generation capacity, there were other problems like inadequate distribution facilities, vandalization, transmission bottlenecks and a highly corrupt and inept system that require urgent attention.

Nigerians were to say the least highly disappointed with the dysfunctional state of affairs in the country's energy sector and the seeming helplessness of the National Electric Power Authority (now Power Holding Company of Nigeria).

As at 1999, the country could boast of three power generating plants, namely, Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro Hydro Dams and four thermal power station located at Egbin, Afam, Sapele and Ughelli which though with an installed capacity of 6,000MW hardly generates 2,000MW.

-Power Sector Reform:

Having sworn to identify the problems militating against a stable and vibrant electricity sub-sector, this government on assumption of office set in motion a two-pronged plan to resuscitate the power sector.

First, it decided that in the short term, special funding would be provided for the rehabilitation of the infrastructure in order to halt further deterioration of the sector. it is estimated that over N100b has been invested by the federal government since 1999 on the repair and rehabilitation of projects mostly in generation and transmission areas. Out of this amount, NEPA (as it was then known) got N50b in 2001 and another N35b in 2002 for its operations.

The utility company at that time was in financial deepwaters, practically unable to meet its monthly expenditure of about N10bn.

The administration's decision to encourage the setting up of Independent Power Projects (IPPs) to complement NEPA in generating power for the nation, led to the establishment of the 150MW Lagos AES IPP and 350MW NNPC/AGIP Okpai IPP in Okpai, Delta State.

Apparently in its desperate attempt to arrest the decline in power supply capacity, government ventured into the diesel-powered small units of IPPs in the Federal Capital Territory which were later discarded due to its high maintenance cost.

One of the identified deficiencies of the power sector had been the gross under-funding and neglect which subsequent governments have subjected the sector to.

So, the Obasanjo administration at the on set decided that since it has become clear that funding was a major problem and that government could not sustain the tempo of funding required by the sector, there was a need to design and implement a reform programme that would dis-engage government from being sole investor, owner and operator of national electricity supply assets.

This other plank of the government's reform programme was expected to encourage the entry of private investors by redefining electricity policy, regulation and market structure in the way that enables the industry to support the country's socio-economic development.

A national electricity policy was approved by the federal executive council which became a prelude to the eventual enactment of the Electricity Power Sector Reform Act (EPSR).

Major highlights of the reform act include the gradual unbundling of the Power Holding company of Nigeria into 18 semi-autonomous entities of 11distribution companies, 6 generation companies and one company in-charge of transmission operations.

Another vital component of the reforms, is the setting up of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), an organ charged under the law to set out guiding rules and regulations for all players in the electricity industry which includes private firms.

The role of NERC was also to mid-wife a viable mechanism for determining the electricity tariff-pricing index and issuance of operational license to existing and incoming players in the industry.

Following what seemed like a late rally to mitigate a not-too successful campaign for private investment into power generation, government decided to embark on the construction of new power stations.

It came up with an ambitious programme of building new power stations which when combined with private sector IPP projects should be able to increase the national capacity to 10,000MW by 2007.

The new power stations for which close to $10bn has been expended are 335MW Omotosho (Ondo), 335MW Papalanto (Ogun), 414MW Geregu (Kogi), 450MW Alaoji (Abia), 400MWAGIP Okpai (Delta), 276MW Afam VI-SPDC (Delta), 170MWSapele -AES, 142MW Ibom power (Akwa Ibom), 1,500MW Mambila hydro dam (Adamawa) and 7 power stations being executed across Niger Delta under the National Integrated Power Project (NIPP).

No doubt Nigeria electricity sector has witnessed a lot of reforms and changes in critical areas of generation, distribution and transmission and there has been quantum leap in power generation and the entry of private sector into the industry.

So far, the government has been able to fund the completion and commissioning of Sapele-AES, Afam, okpai, Geregu, Papalanto and Omotosho power stations with assistance from some foreign financial institutions and companies.

However, what remains to be seen is whether the execution of these power projects and various reforms in the sector, yielded any measure of improvement in electricity supply. To the contrary not until the last few weeks, power supply capacity had gone down terribly to as low as less than 2000MW.

The issue is whether with the way things are going, will the administration's target of 10,000MW still be met? Are Nigerians likely to witness significant improvement in electricity supply and distribution even as the obassanjo administration prepare to leave office on May 29.

- Mines and Steel Sector Reform

Government has initiated major positive reforms to encourage private sector investment in the country. These include the introduction of economic policies to stabilize market rates, shift from government's funding of the sector to a private sector participation, rehabilitation and improvement of basic infrastructure and privatization of mining assets.

A new policy direction targeted at a private sector-led development of the mines and steel industry was introduced as part of the reforms aimed at revitalizing the sector.

Under the policy, government is to provide enabling environment through transparent management of the mineral resources. The policy spelt out the specific roles of both the private and public sectors in the exploitation of the country's mineral resources.

The review of legal and fiscal regimes was undertaken to bring into place fiscal incentives and some measure of competition that will encourage private investment in the sector.

The new minerals and mines Act opened up access to mineral title to all big and small, foreign and local investors on a level and equitable playing field. It also provided guaranteed security of tenure and transferability of mineral rights.

Under the new legal framework environmental and community development agreements became a vital clause in tying up any mining deal.

In the same vein, government established the Geological Survey of Nigeria Agency (GSNA) as an autonomous agency tasked with the function of rebuilding necessary infrastructure to foster trustworthy geological data generation.

Also in line with international practice, government set up an independent Mining Cadastre Office in 2005 to administer mineral titles in an efficient, objective and transparent manner. Since the establishment of the office, the Ministry said it has received over 2000 applications for mining titles in line with the provisions of the minerals Act.

The Ministry also undertook to restructure the staff along professional lines pegging the staff strength to about 1000.

-Telecoms Sector

As President Olusegun Obasanjo prepares to bow out of office after steering the affairs of the nation for the past eight years, Nigerians of all ages are bound to reflect on his stewardship and how he performed in the task of nation building that was fostered on him by posterity. A major area where the President will score high marks is in the reform of the telecoms sector. President Obasanjo six years ago made a decisive move by liberalizing the telecoms sector and opened the nation's gateway to the world.

This singular feat has put the nation on the front burner and thus placed Nigeria as one with the fastest growing telecom sector in the world.

Whatever growth the nation has achieved today in the area of information communications technology was achieved under the stewardship of Obasanjo. The liberalization that introduced the GSM technology has changed the face of telecoms forever in Nigeria. The GSM revolution that hit the nation, six years ago has attracted a lot of benefits including foreign direct investments running into millions of dollars.

Before GSM, the Nigerian subscriber was bedeviled with nonexistent epileptic services rendered by the monopolistic offering of the nation's carrier, Nigerian Telecommunications, NITEL. The introduction of the GSM ensured that the monopoly of non effective service rendered by NITEL was broken and communication across the six geo political zones of the country enhanced by the GSM technology thus encouraging the socio economic growth of the nation, and enhancing businesses and social relationships. Before the liberalization of the telecoms sector, the nation had a teledensity ratio that was less than two percent with 400,000 connected lines to a population of over 130 million, but with the advent of the GSM, teledensity is presently above 20 per cent, with a subscriber base of 38 million as at today.

President Olusegun Obasanjo's administration is also championing the drive to ensure that all the nooks and crannies of the nation are connected to life enhancing and life changing information communications technology. In pursuit of this drive, the Federal Government has set up and pursued various policies aimed at bridging the digital divide and achieving optimum penetration of the rural areas.

Policies like the rural telephony project, wire Nigeria project, the Nigerian telemedicine initiative, Public Service Network initiative, Internet Exchange points initiative, the development of a keyboard for the three main Nigerian languages, the establishment of the Universal access fund in July last year all geared towards ensuring ICT access to every nook and cranny of the federation.

In line with this, the government signed $200 million partnership agreement with three Chinese companies: ZTE, Alcatel Shagai Bell and Huawei Technologies for the second phase of its rural penetration drive last year. The first phase started in 2004. The main aim of the project is the provision of telecommunications infrastructure in all the 774 local government areas in the nation with telephone facilities through the National Rural Telephony project. The project is expected to accelerate economic growth in the rural areas and discourage rural/urban migration,

It will help to reduce poverty as the deployment will attract a lot of opportunities for wealth creation to the rural populace, through the creation of small and medium scale enterprises, promotion of human development, and the improvement of the quality of education at the rural level.

A lot of achievements recorded in the telecoms sector like the recent licensing of operators to deploy 3G technology is seen to be a strong indication of the President's commitment to enhancing communications across all geographical zones in the country. The recent move by the administration in the launch of the nation's satellite project into the orbit has been described as the icing on the cake in the President's efforts to open up the Nigerian economy. This is because the benefits of the launch are quite huge.

Apart from making Nigeria the number one reference point in technology in Africa, the satellite project will revolutionize telecommunications, broadcasting and broadband multimedia services in Nigeria and Africa. The project called Nigeria Satellite Communications, NIGCOMSAT, is a further step in the tremendous gains made in the telecoms sector and a testimony to the benefits of liberalization in the sector.

The satellite project will digitalize the Nigerian economy and promote technological advancement in Nigeria and Africa. There is also the fact that the project would help to promote sustainable national development and improve Nigerians quality of life through the deployment of science and technology. It is expected that the Satellite programme will enable Internet access to even the remotest rural villages and enhance government's economic reforms, particularly in the areas of e-learning, e-commerce, tele-medicine, tele-education, and rural telephony.

The project is expected to earn a whopping N1337.7 billion for Nigeria. It will also help African users save more than $900 million spent for telephony trunking and data transport services, $660 million in phone call charges and broadband access which is more than $95 million spent each year, as well as create more than 150,000 jobs for Nigerians.

Apart from these laudable benefits, the project is also expected to play key roles in e-commerce by improving government efficiency and promoting the development of the digital economy in Nigeria and Africa. Other benefits of the launch of the nation's own satellite according to experts is that it will bring down the cost of GSM and Internet services in the country as a result of the availability of cheaper satellite bandwidth that the launching will enable.

This should help Nigeria to break free from its over-reliance on oil trade and transform itself into a knowledge-based economy that the world will take note of.

- Aviation Reforms

For the aviation industry in the past eight years, it may yet be hasty to mime the halleluja.