Angelo Izama
1 August 2007
opinion
The world needs to urgently address the situation developing in the horn of Africa before it turns into Africa's own "Middle East."
Last week a report by the UN Security Council disclosed what is an open secret ; the hard-line regime of Isaias Aferwerki was smuggling arms into Somalia to arm the Islamic radicals fighting the Transitional Federal Government.
Aferwerki has chosen this side of the conflict because his archrival Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, is supporting the TFG. Ugandan troops are caught somewhere in-between. This situation is dangerous because, just like the Middle East- political Islam and oil are involved. Indeed the fighting, like in the Middle East, has drawn same battle lines and allies.
Ethiopia is an ally of America, representing its values in a sense but also actively supported with Washington's money and weapons.
Eritrea and its Islamists are allegedly friends of Al-Qaeda and its patron in the Middle East- the equally radical regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. Asmara is also supported by the Islamist regime of Omar El Bashir of Sudan.
Noteworthy is Iran's reported policy of supplying arms and expertise to Islamist groups across its borders like Hezbollah fighting Israel in Lebanon.
Then there is the oil factor. In the disputed Ethiopian region of Ogaden- the Ogaden National Liberation Front made up largely of Somalis is fighting a separatist war. If Ethiopia, which has fought a three decade war with Eritrea wants to evacuate this oil it will need a way to the sea preferably through Somalia. But first it needs a friendly government there. Eritrea stands in its way.
Somalia too has unexploited oil fields.
This is a war Somalis, like the rest of its neighbours, do not need. As seen from the example of Bashir and his regime, which falsely used religion to fight a destructive war with Southern Sudanese- the approach of Eritrea will not only fail but bring unnecessary misery to citizens of the Horn.
The use of radical Islamists will also spread the fear of terrorist attacks to the region making life complicated for the many Somalis, Ethiopians, and Eritreans we see on the streets of Kampala and other cities.
More serious still- radicalising the social and economic struggles of their nations by involving political Islam will mean that Aferwerki and Bashir are entering a long war with the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa which can only end if their regimes are overthrown.
For Uganda- a threat as far as Asmara is not that far after all.
Uganda has troops in Somalia who have already suffered deaths at the hands of Islamists using improvised explosive devises preferred by Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
If this situation becomes a war between Islam and the West then Uganda risks being branded a Christian ally of America and targeted by radicals.
This will be sad because a regional conflict will divert attention from genuine social and economic challenges in all these countries all of whom are headed by regimes struggling with democracy and human rights issues.
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