Johannesburg — THOSE who think that President Thabo Mbeki will fire Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang because the Sunday Times has reported that she is a drunk and takes things that do not belong to her, should think again.

The collective silence from the cabinet during the worst years of Mbeki's HIV/AIDS denial should serve as a reminder of how expediency trumps principle in politics every time. I can't really see the expediency in keeping Tshabalala-Msimang in her job, but no matter. That is the reality of power politics, and no amount of howling from the opposition or civil society is likely to change this.

Welcome to politics, Mbeki style, where loyalty to the "chief" is what keeps you in the game.

Yet in politics, timing is everything, and time is one thing the Mbeki government is fast running out of. Hence all the blustering and chest-pounding from the Union Buildings of late.

With only three months to go before the ruling party changes guard, the balance of forces in the African National Congress (ANC) has given new impetus for change in both party and state. On the ANC front, since the party's policy conference in July, Mbeki appears more and more on the back foot in his efforts to hold on to the party presidency.

His weakness in the ANC was perhaps best expressed when he fired Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge as deputy health minister. While he received praise from many quarters when he decided to get rid of the "recalcitrant" Madlala-Routledge, her axing exposed his weakness politically -- not a good sign for someone who wants to run for a third term. In fact, closer scrutiny of events in the tripartite alliance surrounding the dismissal reveals an intriguing power play spearheaded by Luthuli House. The role of the ANC secretary-general in re-establishing a "political centre" that operates above the factional thrust and parry of the succession race is clearly beginning to bear fruit, and should be welcomed, even if it is a little late.

Granted, the ANC said it respected the president's prerogative to hire and fire, just as it did when Mbeki got rid of Jacob Zuma, but we all know how respecting the president's prerogative went down at the ANC's national general council a few months later. One newspaper described the event as Mbeki's four days of "hell", when the party revolted and restored Zuma's full powers as ANC deputy president.

But let me return to the matter at hand. Madlala-Routledge, by all accounts a political lightweight in the ANC, was confident enough to inform no less than the president of the republic of her refusal to resign from public office, eventually forcing Mbeki to fire her. Moreover, Madlala-Routledge told Mbeki of her decision via a fax machine at Luthuli House, the ANC headquarters in downtown Johannesburg. Clearly she understood what the ANC's policy conference meant when it pronounced that the ANC was the strategic centre of power in discussion about the relationship between party and state. How the wheel has turned for Mbeki.

If the health of Mbeki's presidency were to be judged on the strength of his handling of the crises in the health ministry, the verdict must be that we are closer to curtain call in the Mbeki epoch of South African history than we previously thought. This is true not only for his leadership in government but also in the ANC.

The events of the past few weeks seem to confirm what Freedom Front Plus leader Pieter Mulder said after Mbeki's state of the nation address in February: "Die gas is uit die bottel van die Mbeki era (The gas is out of the bottle of the Mbeki era)."

The dilemma of Mbeki's difficult last years in office is not unique. Like his counterparts in many other electoral democracies, Mbeki is greatly weakened by the looming expiry of his presidential mandate. With succession battles under way for heads of government, ruling parties tend to pay less attention to the direction being set by the leader as many try to position themselves for life after the incumbent. It is not a pretty sight at the best of times.

In three months' time, the ANC chooses a new leadership. In 2009, Mbeki has to stand down as president. Change is coming.

Brown is political editor.