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Africa: The Global War On Oil Now Makes Its Way to the Continent

Simwogerere Kyazze

25 August 2007

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analysis

Nairobi — Earlier this month, a revitalised Russia sent a submarine to plant a flag on the frozen seabed of the North Pole, and symbolically lay claim to a large chunk of the vast Arctic ice.

A few days later, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper trekked up the same frozen north and declared that "our government has an aggressive Arctic agenda," while announcing plans to build a military base, as well as patrol boats to keep out land grabbers.

Denmark, another country that shares these icy shores has also recently sent scientists whose findings it hopes, will prove once and for all, that there is some underwater connection between the Nordic country and the North Pole.

This jingoistic posturing, with potential for full-scale wars is over just one thing: petroleum. It's been said that there are great reserves of oil and natural gas buried beneath the unforgiving snow of the North Pole, and the countries whose rear ends face it have been keen to claim them as their own in a world of dwindling fossil fuels.

It's just over 10 years ago when crude oil cost all of US $10 (Sh680) per barrel. Today, the same barrel routinely goes for around US $70 and the way India and China are guzzling the stuff, it might not be long before it nudges US $100! Which brings us to Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the discovery of oil in Lake Albert.

Beating chests

These days, if Uganda government officials are not issuing statements about the upcoming Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Kampala, or the stalled peace talks in northern Uganda, they are beating their chests about the latest "spectacular" oil find around and the exciting new world of being an oil producer.

But like the Russians, Canadians and the Danes at the North Pole, Uganda has to deal with its immediate neighbours to the west; for Lake Albert is not entirely theirs. The stakes are high enough that just over two weeks ago, the dispute broke into a fight - with guns - in which a British oilman became the first, but certainly not the last man, to be killed.

It doesn't help either that oil appears to bring out the worst in anyone with a gun. In Washington for example, the politicos convinced themselves and others that they were invading Iraq (which incidentally has the world's second largest proven oil reserves) to remove Weapons of Mass Destruction, and later that bad man Sadam Hussein. But only the truly naïve believed them.

African standards

In Nigeria and Angola, oil has been a source of internecine warfare and mafia-type crime on a massive scale even by African standards. In less troubled oil producing countries like Gabon, Guinea and Cameroon, national affairs are conducted by boisterous kleptomaniacs who use the proceeds only for personal gain.

Meanwhile, the oil strike in Lake Albert, while decent, is nothing compared to even the big boys in Africa like Libya; not to mention Russia or Saudi Arabia.

Nevertheless, the reserves (estimated at less than 100.000 barrels a day for about 10 years when production starts), are still significant enough to guarantee future conflict between Uganda and the DRC.

For the current leadership in Uganda, oil would just be another excuse to cling to power. President Yoweri Museveni is rounding on his 22nd year and needs an umpteenth wind of relevance, while projection of strength abroad gives Joseph Kabila's countrymen something to rally around beyond their political squabbles.

Oil is the latest gold card for finding traction with energy-hungry China (and India), whose future seems to have arrived; as well as with the traditional big powers in the West and Japan. African leaders are aware that as long as one has oil, one need not necessarily be a democrat.

In fact one can even be a despot and still be welcome in Western capitals. That might explain the cosy ties between the West and Saudi Arabia.

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