Dumisani Muleya
25 August 2007
analysis
Harare — SOUTHERN African Development Community (Sadc) leaders ended their summit in Zambia last week deeply divided over the Zimbabwe issue, exposing diplomatic weaknesses in the regional bloc which is struggling to tackle the simmering trouble-spot in its backyard.
There was great expectation -- perhaps misplaced -- that Sadc would be able to effectively deal with the Zimbabwe crisis which is doing serious collateral damage to the region.
The Zimbabwe situation is undermining the regional economy and has also triggered a wave of largely economic refugees into neighbouring states. It is discouraging investment into the region and donor aid, particularly to Sadc itself which depends on it for its operations.
These destabilising dynamics, among other reasons, were seen as a raison d'être for Sadc leaders to come up with a plan and take strong measures against President Mugabe's regime to end the crisis.
However, Sadc leaders failed to tackle the issue due to inherent weaknesses within Sadc and intense divisions among leaders stemming from regional rivalries and self-interest.
The geo-political dynamics -- coupled with negative competition for influence among leaders of the Sadc region -- militate against unity of purpose when it comes to such issues as dealing with a rogue member state. This allows Mugabe by default to appear as a skilful statesman who gets desired diplomatic outcomes by running rings around his colleagues.
Zambian Finance and Information ministers confirmed that Sadc failed to deal with Mugabe and suggested that maybe retired statesmen like former South African president Nelson Mandela and ex-Zambian president Kenneth Kaunda might be able to persuade him to change his ways.
However, Mandela and Kuanda may not have leverage on him for historical reasons. Former Botswana president Sir Ketumile Masire succeeded in lobbying Kaunda to introduce political reforms in 1991 when Zambia was in crisis.
Despite their public efforts to appear united, Sadc leaders were sharply divided at last week's tense summit in Zambia on how to deal with the Zimbabwe situation. The regional leaders were for the most part at odds over Zimbabwe's controversial economic report which they failed to adopt.
Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, who recently said Zimbabwe was like a "sinking Titanic", said Sadc leaders were satisfied with Zimbabwe's explanation on human rights accusations, electoral laws, and progress in talks for a negotiated settlement between Zanu PF and MDC. His remarks sounded like a poor attempt to gloss over the problems.
The rift among the leaders was triggered by differences over the economic report which, despite President Thabo Mbeki's denials, has proposed attaching stringent conditions to Zimbabwe's planned rescue package.
The conditions to the "take-it-or-leave-it" deal sparked resistance from Harare authorities, while other Sadc leaders felt the report was a fair assessment of economic circumstances in Zimbabwe.
Mugabe and his ministers argued that the economic crisis was caused by US and European Union sanctions, which were imposed after repression, human rights abuses and electoral manipulation.
Other leaders, while acknowledging the sanctions issue, think Mugabe's policies are also to blame for the crisis. South Africa, Tanzania, Botswana, Lesotho and Mozambique want Sadc to act on the Zimbabwe issue, while Angola and Namibia are backing Zimbabwe.
Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe have a mutual defence pact. Since Angola has taken over the Sadc organ on politics, defence and security, Zimbabwe will be better protected in the region.
Other countries appear neutral and this division makes it virtually impossible for Sadc to act with one voice on Zimbabwe. Zambia and Malawi are helping Zimbabwe with food exports.
The schisms in Zambia among leaders created a sense of paralysis. Due to the rupture, the economic report was merely noted -- not adopted -- and sent back to finance ministers so they could draw up an economic rescue plan in consultation with the Zimbabwean government.
Diplomatic sources familiar with Sadc protocols said the report is now practically a "dead letter".
The confidential report, compiled by Sadc executive secretary Tomaz Augusto Salomao, had conditions for aid to Zimbabwe tougher than those usually imposed by global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund. The IMF said this week Zimbabwe has not been listening to advice.
The demands were designed to secure concessions of political reform from Mugabe.
The conditions included the need for political and legal reforms, economic liberalisation and privatisation of public enterprises.
Sadc also demanded fundamental structural reforms, including an overhaul of public enterprises and the public service, the removal of administrative controls in pricing, restoration of the rule of law and property rights, as well as improvements in governance.
The bloc wanted Zimbabwe to immediately address the economic crisis by implementing a comprehensive stabilisation package comprising several mutually reinforcing actions.
It also wanted a tightening of fiscal and monetary policies. It had expressed alarm over quasi-fiscal activities by the Zimbabwean central bank and recommended liberalisation in pricing and exchange rate regimes.
Sadc wanted a reduction of the budget deficit and fiscal discipline to contain inflation, now officially 7 634,8%.
The bloc said the crisis was extremely serious and needed to be tackled urgently to limit the continuing implosion already destabilising the region with a wave of economic refugees.
Sadc proposed sending economic advisers to oversee the implementation of the economic rescue programme. This implied firm methodologies and reporting, progress monitoring and censure in the process.
While the economic report caused divisions, Sadc leaders did reach consensus on Mbeki's report on talks between Zanu PF and MDC.
The Sadc communique said the leaders "welcomed the progress and encouraged the parties to expedite the process of negotiations and conclude work as soon as possible so that elections are held in an atmosphere of peace, allowing the people of Zimbabwe to elect the leaders of their choice in an atmosphere of peace and tranquillity".
However, analysts say Zanu PF is merely going through the motions and even if an agreement is reached soon, with the current imbalanced power relations between the parties it would largely protect Mugabe's interests.
Sadc has been weak from the start due to the circumstances and purpose for which it was established. Formed in April 1980 as the Southern African Development Coordinating Conference by Frontline States, Sadc's main objective was to coordinate development strategy for the region and also counter apartheid South Africa's "Constellation of States" project as well as resist its economic and military might.
Some observers thought it was a way of opposing apartheid, but in fact it was more a case of protecting weaker regional states from South African aggression. The apartheid-era South African government viewed itself as the target of a "total onslaught" by Soviet-backed Marxist regimes in the region. It reacted through a counter-attack described as a "total strategy" which involved economic and military destabilisation of the region from Angola, Zambia, Mozambique, Botswana to Zimbabwe.
Thus Sadc was not a customs or political union, which means its ability to deal with internal problems was very limited.
In fact, Sadc has so far not been able to resolve any political problems within itself except when a group of countries act in their self-interest in the name of the body as happened in 1998 when Zimbabwe, Angola and Namibia joined the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) war.
By the same token, South Africa and Botswana also invaded Lesotho under the name of Sadc to restore order following an outbreak of turmoil after disputed elections in that country. In the 1980s, Zimbabwe intervened in Mozambique on its own.
The DRC war created a major row between Mugabe and Mandela, who as Sadc chair, refused to allow Sadc to get involved as a bloc. Prior to that, Mugabe and Mandela had clashed the year before at a Sadc meeting in Luanda making it difficult for the group to act collectively on the DRC and Lesotho.
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